Top set with nut flush draw, control or gii?
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 12,774
1/2/5 w/ $10 straddle, 9 handed
Hero (~$1,600), V covers.
V has been very active, playing tons of hands and getting pretty lucky calling with the wrong odds but hitting (typical PLO play). However, he seems to put big money in only when he has the nuts or close to it. He will apply pressure in the right spots.
Hero is playing tighter pre, but not as tight as many here would advocate. Also only putting big money in when ahead and putting pressure on weaker players when in position.
Hero: AcAdTc8d
SB calls, BB fold, Hero pots $45, MP calls, BTN calls, SB calls
Pot: ~$175
Flop ($175): Ax7cKc
V check, Hero bets pot $175, MP calls all in, V calls
Turn ($525): Ax7cKcQx
V bets pot $525, Hero?
V most likely has a straight, although he could have a set of K or Q with a J, T, A, etc., but +90% sure he has the straight based on previous play, especially since Hero has the nut flush draw and there are no other flush draws on board. If the flush comes, V is folding river. Not sure about if the board pairs and gives him a lower FH.
Is this an auto-shove with ~$1,380 behind or can we call and fold blank rivers? I love PLO but don’t get the opportunity to play too often, and a friend and I disagreed on the best play.
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 309
woah crazy hand. according to cardplayer odds you are 40% to win and he is 55% to win (5% for a tie if a jack comes out).
In theory the correct play is to shove but that's hard to put almost $1,400 in the pot.
You are right though, he likely folds if a club comes or the board pairs so you will have trouble getting paid.
I dont know what I would do in-game, that's a tough spot
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 1,795
I usually go broke with topset+ NFD against any straight but it may be incorrect to GII for this many BBs. Although, I don't think folding is ever an option here
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 28,054
If you are confident in your read he has straight just call, especially as all-in player may have some of your outs
If you are not confident in your read jam, the cost of incorret play on river could be large, plus you might miss your only chance to get the rest of $$ from kkk
