This will most likely turn around right?

No. Just because you've run bad in the past doesn't mean you're more likely to run good in the future.

You've run ~15BI below ev in 8k hands, very standard. I don't get the meaning behind this thread though, u want a guarantee from us you'll get back to even ev-wise? we can't give it to you. Post stuff like this in the bbv-thread.

yeah nothing too far out of the ordinary there. in theory it should even out in the long run but of course it doesnt have to. Just keep playing well and the results will come

I come from a sng background, so i was just making sure this was very standard.

Thanks.

Bull****!
EV doesn't remember what has happened in the past. EV will most likely break even from this point on. Which means that your EV will most likely show -15BIs after 10k more hands, 100k more hands, 1M more hands.

BUT! Of course the relative aberration will even out and go towards 0 after X amount of hands.

If you lose 100 coin flips, your most likely to win 250/500 next coinflips. not 300/500 to break even with the total 300/600. EV is most likely to break even from this point on. And BTW, even if it's most likely to end up breaking EV from hand 0-1000 this only means it is more likely than ending + or -1 buy in. It isn't very likely to break even anyways, it's more likely to not break even. If you know what I mean. My English is kinda sucky.

It sux to think that money lost due to runbad will very possibly never come back in our lifetime.

its funny because its true.

The definition of variance is just that. After a million hands you would almost certainly have went above your EV at one point then dipped below again, but to think it is likely to be below EV forever is wrong.

The reason i said in theory his luck should even out to 0 as opposed to saying that he should just break even ev wise from here on out is because of the law of large numbers. The larger the sample the more likely it is for the sample to approach the true probability. In his case you can either exclude the hands he posted and say that starting now his lifetime winnings in theory should equal his lifetime ev (which is true) or if you choose to include the hands from the sample above then the correct theory is that over enough hands his winnings should in theory merge closer to his ev line and over a large enough sample he will most likely make up that 2500 dollars or whatever it is he's ran bad for.

Everyones lifetime ev in theory is supposed to equal their winnings but if you exclude everything from the past and just start from today everyones ev from now on is supposed to equal their winnings from now on. I guess just another way you can play with numbers and make them say two different things which are both correct.

The law of large numbers doesn't mean he'll ever get back those BI, though. It just means that while 14 is very different from -1, 1,000,015 is basically the same as 1,000,000.


Couple other points:

You should generally expect your ev to run normally. Thus, in your next 8k hands, if you've played at your true talent level, you should expect win 14BI or whatever.

I'm not entirely convinced that all-in ev is a perfect tool for measuring how well you've played, though. If you make a lot of narrow "hero" folds, you can protect your green-line. Or if you take really nitty lines, you're likely to get it in with the nuts but lose money.

I can't quite articulate this as well as I'd like, and I might be misunderstanding the tool, but it seems like looser, more aggressive players are much more likely to run above expectation than tight passive ones, not due to luck but due simply to the way it's calculated.

Plus never forget that EV is just one small factor of luck. Hitting flops and hitting draws while not being all in is also very important. And you can judge that yourself when you notice you are hitting every draw and every flop. The next step would be for HEM to calculate such luck as well, though it will be much more complex, but still it can be done if user is able to define some of those luck factors such as times you have hit flush on river from turn. It should be 20%, but you can run way above that.