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PLO100 Turnplay with turned Set PLO100 Turnplay with turned Set

09-11-2013 , 02:45 PM
BTN: $264.26
SB: $217.13
BB: $536.62
UTG: $100.00
MP: $140.33
Hero (CO): $348.18

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with J 8 5 J
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($7.00) 6 K 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($7.00) J (2 players)
SB bets $6, Hero raises to $22, SB raises to $72.68, Hero calls $50.68

River: ($152.36) K (2 players)
SB bets $141.45 all in, Hero?

Villian is playing 38/18 with 10% threebet, 44% fold to cbet, low AF (1,6) and super high Went to showdown (48) (samplesize just 160 Hands)

BB was also a fish and the button wasn't to active, so i think my preflop open is standard. I don't see a lot of merits in betting this flop versus this villian.

Turn is nice and I decided to raise to get value from draws or to induce light calldowns from weak madehands.

When he raises it get difficult. I don't often checkbehind the flop and raise the turn, and have no Idea how likely it is that an villian is going crazy against this line, but in general I don't see an opponent like this go crazy with a draw or a 2 pair hand. Even small sets often just call a raise this deep. Is it to weak to just call the turn? It's put me in a kind of negative freeroll situation, versus topset i lose everything everytime but he could give up combodraws or undersets on the river if i call. I might get more value from bluffs if i just call or save money versus topset if a draw hits on the river.

Villian instapot the river, he is repping ultrathin, since I don't give him credit for to many 2 pair combos on the turn. But he could play 55/66 this way, or just go randomly crazy, so I guess I have to call...
PLO100 Turnplay with turned Set Quote
09-11-2013 , 03:01 PM
he was just going for a flop c/r with KK. he cant have KJ, maybe he has 66 55 but with that he b/calls turn i guess.

pretty fked up spot imo

i either jam ott or raise fold really depending on the feel how villain plays.
PLO100 Turnplay with turned Set Quote
09-12-2013 , 12:35 AM
r/f turn seems really bad from a theory perspective but probably the right play here. Sucky spots all around.
PLO100 Turnplay with turned Set Quote
09-12-2013 , 05:48 AM
omfg...
pretty fked up.
As played I think I'd call river. But in the other hand all his moves look like someone who is trying desperately to get value from something, since he wanted probably to C/R flop.

KK

as @bartolomeus said: I think if he had 55 66 he'd just call turn.

In the end, hero... ?
PLO100 Turnplay with turned Set Quote
09-12-2013 , 07:15 AM
Call river and smash up the nearest thing to you when he turns over K6. Probably just jamming turn though. He probably 3-bets a lot of KK hands so don't think KK is that big a part of his range and we can't just go raise/folding sets OTT. Sucks that we have no redraw bar quads if he does have the KK but what can ya do! Either way I think shoving is better than just calling so we don't make any mistakes OTR. Only calling if villain is likely to just spaz out and might be really wide OTT.
PLO100 Turnplay with turned Set Quote

      
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