BTN: $264.26
SB: $217.13
BB: $536.62
UTG: $100.00
MP: $140.33
Hero (CO): $348.18
Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with J
8
5
J
2 folds,
Hero raises to $3,
1 fold, SB calls $2.50,
1 fold
Flop: ($7.00) 6
K
5
(2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($7.00) J
(2 players)
SB bets $6,
Hero raises to $22,
SB raises to $72.68, Hero calls $50.68
River: ($152.36) K
(2 players)
SB bets $141.45 all in, Hero?
Villian is playing 38/18 with 10% threebet, 44% fold to cbet, low AF (1,6) and super high Went to showdown (48) (samplesize just 160 Hands)
BB was also a fish and the button wasn't to active, so i think my preflop open is standard. I don't see a lot of merits in betting this flop versus this villian.
Turn is nice and I decided to raise to get value from draws or to induce light calldowns from weak madehands.
When he raises it get difficult. I don't often checkbehind the flop and raise the turn, and have no Idea how likely it is that an villian is going crazy against this line, but in general I don't see an opponent like this go crazy with a draw or a 2 pair hand. Even small sets often just call a raise this deep. Is it to weak to just call the turn? It's put me in a kind of negative freeroll situation, versus topset i lose everything everytime but he could give up combodraws or undersets on the river if i call. I might get more value from bluffs if i just call or save money versus topset if a draw hits on the river.
Villian instapot the river, he is repping ultrathin, since I don't give him credit for to many 2 pair combos on the turn. But he could play 55/66 this way, or just go randomly crazy, so I guess I have to call...