Originally Posted by wazz
You've got this wrong; if you're a favourite in a pot, you're more likely to run above ev than below.
I'm not an expert, but I remember a thread specifically about this and it was something to do with the binomial something or other and the fact that the hand that is behind has more opportunity to run hot like in an 80/20. The 20 side could win all 100 and run 80 buyins over expectation, but the the 80 can only run 20 over at its maximum. Maybe you are right in the fact that the favorite is more likely to run a little bit over, but the favorite is also more likely to run very far below while the person getting it in bad usually runs a little bad, but can run insanely good.
The binomial distribution is asymmetrical, which leads to unintuitive properties like this one.
In 100 trials with a 80% chance of winning each one, a player will win:
81% with probability 0.098074286
79% with probability 0.094571633
70% with probability 0.005189643
90% with probability 0.00336282