Best of luck to everyone this year!

Good Luck KrMont22.
I will see you this year on the way to supernova elite...
I am super pumped about getting started. I am starting playing again in like 2 weeks, and I am going to put in tons of volume. I have very high goals this year, and I am sure you do as well.
Good Luck in 2010

2010

for the win

I am going to make a legitimate effort to not play above 10/20 for the entire year of 2010. Let there be grind!

Going for SNE.

GL Krmont getting 2MM vpps. GL to everyone else w/e your goals are.

thought:

shouldn't it look like most good players are running slightly over EV over a large hand sample b/c of all the times they are pushing their preflop edges/flop edges and when they get sucked out on there's still some small bets left which HEM calculates as getting all the money in bad?

I'm not really sure what you mean, but if you define good as getting it in with avg equity over 50pct and bad as below that, the good player is very insignficantly more likely to run below ev and the bad player above ev.

well i guess it gets mushy when u talk about good players getting it in bad in spots with fold equity, but my theory is that bad players will be chasing more draws incorrectly and so when they hit and the rest of (an insignificant amount) the money goes in it shows the AIEV as -100% and when it doesn't hit they just fold. wait what? man this weed is good. can someone finish this for me.

I do believe good players will run above EV in HEM. First of all, If we are at 5/10 and I bet 1000 on the flop and you have 1001$ and just call with a draw. Then on turn, when you hit and I bet your last $1 and now you are ahead, it shows up as you putting in a lot of money bad, when in fact you put in all your money but $1 very good.
Also, when get it in multiway, and there are large side pots, it calculates all your equities equally and not based on equities for the main pots, and side pots separately.
Example: you have 200bb KKxx, shortstacker has AAxx, and 200bb stack with 89TJs.s., all three of you get it in preflop. It gives you really bad equity, which in fact you have really good equity in the side pot, but it doesnt calculate it that way.
I believe all this is true, which in fact means you should run above HEM EV.

are you people serious? do you think you never do the same thing? there are plenty of times where you get there and it shows you as 100pct ev. and im pretty confident it calculates sidepots correctly; its the SS that gets screwed when 2 people call him then there is betting postflop and he doesnt get his allin pre equity calculated he gets the equity on the street when the 3rd guy folds

can i pretty please start running normal at 3-6 +

ty...

It's not going to show villain getting his money in bad because its "All-In EV". In the scenario you're talking about, you're going AI for $1 only, so the green line and dark green line are going to be almost identical. They would obviously be identical if hero was drawing dead and didn't have a higher FD or full house possibility.
It would show villain putting in a lot of money bad if you bet $1001.

Let there be sidebets!

Is there a thread that shows what the optimal SNE vpp/fpp buying rewards/milestone strategy is? Should I be buying all these little VPP notifications that are popping up?

Thanks!

Turning 1.6 cents into 10-100 dollars is a very good decision.

cool thanks

You've got this wrong; if you're a favourite in a pot, you're more likely to run above ev than below.

Gonna follow your blog - good luck to you too.

lol, never considered this.

im systematically playing a style to optimize running below ev in HEM, gogogogo 2010

I'm not an expert, but I remember a thread specifically about this and it was something to do with the binomial something or other and the fact that the hand that is behind has more opportunity to run hot like in an 80/20. The 20 side could win all 100 and run 80 buyins over expectation, but the the 80 can only run 20 over at its maximum. Maybe you are right in the fact that the favorite is more likely to run a little bit over, but the favorite is also more likely to run very far below while the person getting it in bad usually runs a little bad, but can run insanely good.

The binomial distribution is asymmetrical, which leads to unintuitive properties like this one.

In 100 trials with a 80% chance of winning each one, a player will win:
81% with probability 0.098074286
79% with probability 0.094571633
and
70% with probability 0.005189643
90% with probability 0.00336282

if one of yall can hook me up some stars gold id really appreciate it

Yeah, you're right, if your expectation in a pot is high, it has the capability for further movement down than up, and vice-versa. But that's completely aside the point. If we get it in and I have 80% equity and you have 20%, 80% of the time I win the whole pot and therefore run above equity. If we get it in twice and I have an average of 80% equity each time, I run above equity 64% of the time, exactly at equity 32% of the time, and below equity 4%. Change it to 60% equity: we run above 36% of the time, at equity 48% of the time, and below 16%.

It's sorta like the arguments about buyin size that often comes up live. If I sit with £2k and you sit with £100, I could argue that my upside is only £100 and yours is £2k, so it's massively unfair. Well, that's stupid. You can reload; I am free to stop playing; and even if we completely disregard those two facts, if it were in fact the case the guy buying in shorter has an edge, then every tournament would always be +EV for everyone who entered it, as 1st place is always much more than your buyin.

what you're saying makes a whole lot of sense, wazz. i never thought about it like that.

but i wonder: is that effect greater than the effect of the times when you do get it in as a 65/35 and lose and you get a massive change in EV? getting it in good repeatedly will slowly add to your being over EV but the game's volatility shows itself more than often enough to correct that EV, right? like i'm not saying it should go one way or the other, but isn't it supposed to correct itself?

when we're on the losing side of those 80/20 pots, because the effect is so great we only need it to happen a couple times to mess up all those times we won instead of lost, right?

so a fish called me down and lost and then spammed chat asking why he lost claiming he had the winner..then he does it again and explains what hand he thought he had, and it's clearly that he thinks you can play 2, 3, or 4 cards out of your hand.

Which option is unethical in your opinion:

A: Ignoring him
B: Telling him the rules

Does your opinion change if its HU instead of a full 6 Max?