Quote:
Originally Posted by gui166
Hello guys.
First I'd like to introduce myself. I am a SSPLO player and I'll be in the next Pokerstars player meetings representing brazilian poker forum MaisEV. I am creating this topic in HSPLO forum because this is where all rake-related discussions are happening.
One of pokerstars' arguments to not lower the rake was that players had better winrates in PLO. Well, I brought some numbers. These are the players that played most hands in the last 12 months in pokerstars $0.50/$1 PLO 6max (more than 10kk hands total):
(all winrates are in ptbb)
Take a look at the winrates. Only 3 out of 25 regulars are winners. The rest of them are all either losing or even. Remember, this is a stake where the field is soft, theres lots of fish!! Still, regulars struggle to make a profit. Games are dying and it's not because of field toughness. Now think about stakes below that pay even more rake. PLO will never get close to its potential. The situation is totally unsustainable and can't stay like this.
This is awsome Gui and i'm really happy that an actual plo player is going to these meetings after all. Great to see that you go with this in your mind as well.
I want to give you one major thing to think of (in case you didn't before), what i posted a few times earlier. Your analysis is a very very good insight, though it's not totally fair to just take the players that played the most hands like this. Maybe winning players move up? Also very likely is that the players running good keep in the game and play a large volume, the ones running bad will quit and don't make the list. So i expect the real list to be even worse than this.
When you are at the pokerstars meeting you can show them this. They will argue that there are still sizable winners at those stakes. Both reasoning hugely neglects the huge variance of plo (or alternatively poker in general). If you have the possibility to do some analysis with some of the Pokerstars staff member you should construct your analysis like this:
- Split your sample in two parts for every seperate stake
- Over the first part you select the 'good" players by a metric you've choosen (for example, select the players with the best winrates with minimum 100k hands played)
- Then test the winrates of these players over the second part of your data.
These winrates would be a more fair indication of a good players winrate.
Good luck at these meetings!