Middle set + weak flush draw HU facing Pot-sized bet - Page 2 - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

random heart, higher heart, 9, 9

11/44*3/43*3/42*2/41 = 1 in 16454
= not insignificant....almost twice as hard as a natural straight in 5 stud and 3 times easier than a natural full in 5stud. for comparison purposes

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheBabyGrand

You do realize that putting this person on a set of 9s with a flush draw is really hard to do, right? The 9h is out there, making him have to have two hearts behind his 99. So statistically speaking, 99 and a higher flush draw is irrelevant in your calculation. (odds of having 99 with UTG raise + odds of having two hearts (minus your two hearts)= Statistically insignificant.

Anyways, you said the guy is aggressive, you have a monster, pump it in there. I am assuming you lost, but you are going to lose here 35-40% of the time given that it looks like you have no fold equity. This isn't the two card game where you can pot control these spots and look for river equity. You will be way too soft and easy to play against.

Last edited by 1oh1; 09-18-2014 at 02:25 PM.

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09-30-2014 , 05:13 PM

#27

Penny2790

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2014 Posts: 213

Gii we're never folding ( I hope not at least)

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10-01-2014 , 05:34 AM

#28

Neptune04

adept

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 861

Just shove flop since you have poorish visibility on what it is exactly you're looking for on the turn but you pretty much have positive equity to get it in on the flop and it's a lot more fun getting it in on the flop. Not like you're super deep.

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10-01-2014 , 04:01 PM

#29

Bowchikiwow

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 106

^ this.

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10-01-2014 , 09:00 PM

#30

Black Lotus

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 193

I would be looking to get it in on this flop, awfully hard to be in terrible shape here. As played, turn gave us an additional 10+% on the river, soooooo....POT!