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Old 08-25-2011, 11:24 AM   #1
vandy
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mbk's old plo graph

clearly he is amazing at plo and im not taking anything away from him, but just wondering if this is even remotely possible by anyone these days? did he just happen to hit plo at the perfect time?

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Old 08-25-2011, 11:54 AM   #2
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Re: mbk's old plo graph


from march this year.
its about the same winrate.

i guess its not about hittin plo at the perfect time, its more about hittin in plo at the perfect time
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Old 08-25-2011, 12:23 PM   #3
vandy
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

just seems odd to not have bigger downswings even if you played perfect. im jelly.
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Old 08-25-2011, 02:10 PM   #4
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

Quote:
Originally Posted by vandy View Post
just seems odd to not have bigger downswings even if you played perfect. im jelly.
variance is smaller the bigger your edge is.
thats like ProbTh 101
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Old 08-25-2011, 02:28 PM   #5
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

I remember him saying in his well that he min 3-bet 40% of the time HU.

I was confused
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Old 08-25-2011, 02:35 PM   #6
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

Quote:
Originally Posted by JackWraith View Post
variance is smaller the bigger your edge is.
thats like ProbTh 101
In which case his statement is basically equivalent to saying 'i'm surprised he won at such a high rate'
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Old 08-25-2011, 03:12 PM   #7
chipchip
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

Quote:
Originally Posted by SSDas View Post
I remember him saying in his well that he min 3-bet 40% of the time HU.

I was confused
link tow ell?
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Old 08-25-2011, 03:31 PM   #8
JackWraith
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

Quote:
Originally Posted by SSDas View Post
In which case his statement is basically equivalent to saying 'i'm surprised he won at such a high rate'
actually "its odd to have such a high win rate even if you play perfect" which is obv lol
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Old 08-25-2011, 04:49 PM   #9
Quasar30
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

I can post a similar graph.

Just give me an hour
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Old 08-25-2011, 05:09 PM   #10
Busto Bandit
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

Quote:
Originally Posted by JackWraith View Post
actually "its odd to have such a high win rate even if you play perfect" which is obv lol
i would def trade ur roll for 20m w ur avy fwiw
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Old 08-25-2011, 05:45 PM   #11
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

Quote:
Originally Posted by JackWraith View Post

from march this year.
its about the same winrate.

i guess its not about hittin plo at the perfect time, its more about hittin in plo at the perfect time
That's Grundy's as well, right?
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Old 08-26-2011, 05:44 AM   #12
afallacy
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

whats it like to run +aiev?
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Old 08-26-2011, 07:33 AM   #13
chinz
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

Quote:
Originally Posted by JackWraith View Post
variance is smaller the bigger your edge is.
thats like ProbTh 101
And ProbTh 102 is "You don't understand what variance means"

and fwiw it's quite the contrary, usually the biggest winners have higher than avarage variance.


Spoiler:
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Old 08-26-2011, 08:54 AM   #14
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

Quote:
Originally Posted by CZI View Post
That's Grundy's as well, right?
its grundy. pic taken from his blog . Link

Quote:
Originally Posted by chinz View Post
And ProbTh 102 is "You don't understand what variance means"

and fwiw it's quite the contrary, usually the biggest winners have higher than avarage variance.


Spoiler:
fun fact: so is yours

bigger winners dont have bigger variance.
variance per se has nothing to do with the ev

three examples:
http://easycalculation.com/statistic...-deviation.php

Example 1)
60,35,0,-20,20,40,30,10,40,0
Mean 21.5 std. derivation: 24

Example 2)
40,15,-20,-40,0,20,10,-10,20,-20
Mean 1.5, std derivation 24

Example 3)
160,135,100,80,120,140,130,110,140,100
Mean 121.5 std. derivation 24

E1,E2 and E3 have all the same variance, but E1 prolly cares less about variance then E2 but more then E3, who prolly dont give a **** because its hardly recognisable that there is any variance at all.

variance is an absolute value and therefor decreases in terms of percentage of your mean the bigger your edge.

so let me rephrase my post:
Quote:
variance is smaller in relationship to your ev the bigger your edge is.
fmp.
but if youre being a dick, at least try to get it right yourself.
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Old 08-26-2011, 09:51 AM   #15
SSDas
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

The only reason your variance is smaller with a higher win rate is because the ceiling/floor of what you can win/lose each hand is the same whether you're a winning or losing player. Though there can be an argument that the most optimal way to play is an inherently high variance style.

Think of it this way -

If you play 100BBs deep every hand, and your winrate is 100BBs every hand, you HAVE to win every singly hand in order to maintain that winrate; your variance is zero.

Likewise, if you lose 100BBs every single hand and you only play 100BBs deep, you HAVE to lose a stack every hand so your variance in zero.

If you assume the amount won/lost per hand is normally distributed, then the closer the mean (winrate) is to the respective ceiling/floor (IE, stack depth), then the lower the variance is (all other things being equal). In this way, a player with 0 EV can achieve the highest level of variance.

Generally, this effect is very very small when you consider players winning between 0-3BB/100 hands, but when you consider Ben's graph it probably has a big effect.

However, I think the style of play is probably the biggest impact of how high your variance is for players with winrates in the same ballpark.
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Old 08-26-2011, 02:41 PM   #16
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

who is this guy? whats his stars name?

I played him HU on FTP a bunch and thought he was quite good/ tough.
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Old 08-26-2011, 02:46 PM   #17
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

Quote:
Originally Posted by chipchip View Post
link tow ell?
here
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Old 08-27-2011, 09:51 PM   #18
Adiprene1
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

wow so few hands over 4 years.

dunno how/where he still gets a gragh like that this year....
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Old 08-28-2011, 04:14 AM   #19
Omniheart
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

lol i am pretty sure he makes these graphs up to a certain degree . its really easy if u just purge out some losers.
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Old 08-28-2011, 05:37 AM   #20
AlexKP
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

My plo graph last 12ish months

http://imageshack.us/f/155/grafka.jpg

Last edited by AlexKP; 08-28-2011 at 05:45 AM.
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Old 08-28-2011, 07:55 AM   #21
good2cu
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

Looks like he's even better than Jose.
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Old 08-28-2011, 09:21 AM   #22
AlexKP
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

Mine?


Btw. How do i make the pic go in the thread instead of link?
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Old 08-29-2011, 08:06 PM   #23
Doorbread
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

Quote:
Originally Posted by jonno06 View Post
who is this guy? whats his stars name?

I played him HU on FTP a bunch and thought he was quite good/ tough.
really? i played him hu and nothing really stuck out as much as him being the fabled ben grundy. he seemed average hu and did some weird things (3b less than pot, didn't buy in full)

in 6m he'd generally play really short sessions
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Old 08-30-2011, 01:31 AM   #24
urubu111
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

agree w doorbread. imo grundy is very overrated.

his graph tells me ''damn, id be VERY rich if i started playing plo in 2007''.
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Old 09-01-2011, 11:54 PM   #25
ALL1N
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Re: mbk's old plo graph

I don't know anything about the guy as a player, but its certainly possible that that graph is not doctored IMO.
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