Aria 2/5 w/$10 rock.

Hero BB $1500 (eff) Image is tight, table is maybe an hour old and the only big pot I've been in I x/r AI with AKTT (no d) on JQ5dd flop and got there against unknown hand.

Villain is CO- has been involved in a major way in >50% of the pots and sees probably 75% flops and opens about 20%. He is pretty deep, ~3k, and is giving/getting tons of action but has recently showdown nut hands in at least 5 hands the last 2 orbits. Likes to put a lot of pressure especially IP and on pivot cards. V is aware that hero has pretty low VPIP and has limped 100% of my range.

$10rock is UTG+1, folds to V in CO who opens to $30, BTN calls, Hero calls w/ QQ62, rock calls.

Pot ($120)
QT7

Hero checks?* , UTG+1 checks, V bets $75, BTN calls, Hero??

Normally a wet flop like this with top set my plan is to x/rPot because V will be potting flop a very high% of the time if checked to. If it somehow checks through then pot-control to showdown. Not leading here may be a big leak, I'm not sure. Now that V only bets out $75 instead of P (strange bet for him) my x/rP is now only $420(think thats right) leaving me SPR~1 if called by one person and SPR~.7 if both call.

In this spot if I call instead of raise and I know with a high certainty V will barrel almost all turns if checked to again; would it be better to x/c or x/r the flop?

so then...
Flop Qs:

1. Thoughts on leading vs x/c or x/r?

2. If x/c, what is hero's turn action on cards that hit wraps/fd?

3. If x/r, are you jamming 100% of turn cards that don't fill hero up?

Because V is so aggro, I don't mind not leading out. This board is really bad for your hand. Wraps are calling x/r pot for sure. I too have trouble in these spots. However, because you're out of position I'd lean toward x/r potting the flop because I'm not sure you'll be able to control the size of the pot being OOP. So might as well be aggressive and take charge in this spot.

If x/c the flop and a bad card comes on the turn, you have to check. Any A, K, J, 8, or 9 plus hearts is really bad obviously.

If you x/r the flop and you have 1 or less pot sized bets left you're pretty much committed. So yeah, probably gii.

One last thought though...

You mentioned V's weird $75 bet on the flop. Wondering if he flopped a naked middle set.

AC

are you japanese op? the name drax sounds familiar

You're not that deep.

Bombs away.

20s white kid always wearing a STL cards hat, plays aria every day and sometimes wynn or B. Primarily NLHE player, new to PLO maybe ~100hrs.

So then let's say V calls the $420, pot is now $1035. Turn brings the Ah, hero?

So you were two hat guy who is now one hat guy?

nope, always been just a 1 hat guy. 2 hats is now no hats though.

If I see that card I'm throwing an internal hissy fit but probably shipping since SPR is 1 or less.

AC

I think leading is your best play. Your hand is much less face up than the check raise option. While some people are x/r'ing with a wide range, if you have been low VPIP, only limping and then check, and continue to repot against a player who is on a minor rush I think you are telling everyone specifically two of your hole cards.

If someone decides to reraise your lead with either a lower set or a wrap flush draw combo you obv can avoid any mistake on future streets by simply jamming. If you are simply called you are still deep enough to check call scare cards on turn w/ ample implied odds for riv.

If you x/r I think you are putting an awkward amount of your stack in the middle OOP against what seems like a capable player who could play optimally on all turn cards.

Cardinals hat at Aria playing PLO, I'll keep my eyes open. GL

I agree with this, particularly because your set is as naked as it can possibly be. We don't have a single blocker and the only straight blocker we have is the 6 which happens to be the least scariest of the straight cards. We also have no backdoor flush or straight draws. These factors minimize your equity, we will be put in a lot of tough spots ott so I'm not thrilled about bloating the pot oop with these stack sizes.

Being oop is an even better reason to bloat the pot

I am not a great technical person when it comes to analysis, but here are my thoughts. (Feel free to give me feedback, good or bad on my thoughts).

Personally I hate these spots, but I agree with the lead when there are four people in the pot. It disguises your hand much better than the x/r. You also give the other three players a chance to repot it and then you can decide if you want to get it all in and then possibly run it twice. If everyone gets it in I am more than happy to call due to pot odds and the fact that there is a very high chance the other three players are sharing some of each others outs. Not to mention that you only have one full buyin on the table.

If there is a good chance it gets checked thru then I could see leading,but this guy is betting at every hand.you're oop-live players play pretty passively so they're not gonna raise your lead with with a hand they don't wanna get it in or at least call your check raise anyway.all leading really does is give a cheap turn card to people in position with ok equity who can basically play turn and river cards perfectly .

It's ****ing plo ."disguising your hand" is pretty silly on a board this wet.theyre not just gonna put you on top SRT and muck mid or even bottom set and a lot of ****ty players won't fold 2 pair .you have a very high spr and the best but vulnerable hand.so like I said check bombs away.

3x 75 =225 +120= 345?
guess you flatted in actual hand
if anyone else hits flop theyre gonna check to villain so it might get checked through... bet>>check flop

2- check some, bet others
3- no

Overly optimistic call pre with both poor absolute and relative position. Also you should not try check raising the guy who is last to act in a multiway pot. Just call now, you are not going to like 2/3rds of the turn cards and calling disguises your hand nicely.

there's a great chance someone bets this flop.

disguising your hand for what? all you're doing is giving lots of hands with decent equity a free turn when they'd likely pay for it.

19 turns give you a monster, either giving you top full or leaving with you with the nuts.and you can free up more outs of bs naked straight. if you raise you make those with good equity pay to hit their hand and free up bs straight cards people would stay in with cheap to try to hit.

you also have a much better chance of stacking dominated "monsters" on the flop that won't like their hand as much on the turn.

Update:

Hero calls, UTG+1 folds. 3players.

Turn-($345)
As

Board now reads- QhTh7cAs

Hero checks, V bets $300, BTN folds, Hero?

hero folds. he's usually got kj. Sure some opponents could be trying a blocker play, but usually, he got there. You're getting slightly better than 2:1 and it's like 3.5:1 against you making a boat on the river. Your ace outs are a little problematic as well, since they give you an underfull. He bet into two players.

Let's rewind. If you do check / pot the flop, which seems like a reasonable course of action, what is your plan for the turn? Obviously if you do have the nuts or boat on the turn you should bet. Assuming only one calls you then you can go all in or all but all in. Which for sure you want to do on 2, 3, 4, 5 non heart. The boat you would actually want to check or bet a tiny amount but even unsophisticated opponents have probably seen this manouver before. So you could pot it and try to represent a draw that is trying to represent a full house.

The problem is he could have either a wrap or a flush draw. Usually the flush draw would have to be pretty high with like a gutshot for him to have gotten into this situation, or some sort of open ended or wrap with flush draw. The wrap would usually have to be 4 card to hit if it is naked. Something like a non heart six, for example, I think you should probably continue betting. Maybe an 8 as well or a jack or a king? Thoughts?

tuff spot...

prob check bomb flop check call turn bomb a repeat pretty standard line id say
no repeat i might check fold depending on reads or bet sizing/tells