Quote:
Originally Posted by Antidote
Check flop. Reasons are:
1) If you bet, you will have to bet fold since your hand does not have enough equity against any of villain's get it in range.
2) Your hand wants the flop to check through and for a diamond or Jack to peel off (or an 8, K or Ace). On all of these cards, you will have the nut draw, and so you benefit from having the flop check through so as to allow inferior backdoor draws to stay in the hand. A lot of the value from your hand comes from its nutty backdoor draws, not from its current flop value (which is quite limited 9-ways).
3.) You have no fold equity on the flop.
4.) You have poor visibility on the turn after betting and being called. I have already listed the potential good turn cards for you above. On all other turns, you will have no idea where you stand in the hand and will be prone to make mistakes.
Awesome post.
OP, there's times to go for thin value plays, but OOP on the flop massively multiway is definitely not it. If you check, you might be able to see a turn for free, or cheap (as live players bet size poorly and someone could do something silly and bet like 50 into 333).
Also of note is that against 5 totally random hands (PPT can only handle 6 handed), your hand actually has only around 12.6% equity. Obviously this just gets worse when you add 3 more random hands.
I'd probably bet this flop w/ like 99 and a multiway combo nut draw (like Ah8d7d6h) and hope no one notices in a live environment.