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| High Stakes PL Omaha Discussion of 2/4 and above pot-limit Omaha poker |
06-23-2012, 03:31 AM
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#1
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old hand
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 1,895
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Live 1-2 Ultra Deep: Flop Math/Best Line W/ Solid Draw Against Top Set
I'm primarily interested in whether my call is mathematically correct given V1's range of JJxx and the amount of dead money in the pot. Am also interested on what people think best line is for this hand on the flop. Not interested in comments on preflop play.
Play is 8 handed. Game is a pretty eclectic mix of solid players, loose passive fish, and spewy fish. Play is very deep and typically flops are very multiway.
Stacks:
Hero (SB): $1420
V1 (UTG): $940
V2 (CO): $1850
Stacks of relevant other villains: BB $300, very solid villain $2900, BTN $450.
Hero is dealt AsQsAd6h in SB. V1 limps UTG, as does one other player. Very solid villain raises to $10 (standard open). V2 (spewy villain) calls in CO. BTN calls. Hero calls. BB calls. V1 calls, as does other limper.
Flop ($70), 7 players: Js 10d 5s.
Hero is first to act. What is Hero's best option?
Hero checks. It gets checked to V2/CO, a spewy villain who bets liberally when checked to on flop. Spewy villain bets $60 into $70 pot. What is Hero's best option?
Hero calls. BB folds. V1, a good friend, unexpectedly pots it. It is now an additional $250. At this point, Hero, who knows V1's game extremely well, is certain V1 has JJxx. It gets folded to V2. V2 makes it obvious to table he has two pair and makes a protest fold (V2 has acted in this manner for months when wanting to show a big fold).
Math situation: $500 in pot and $250 for Hero to call, Hero is certain V1 has the nuts. What is Hero's best option?
Hero tank jams and all the $ gets in.
After some thought, I figured this situation was close but the equity was in my favor. Assumptions: 1) V1 has JJxx (I know this to a certainty), 2) V2 folded some two pair. Against V1's range, I figured I'd be around 45% in light of these assumptions, justifying the jam. If anyone could stove this, I'd really appreciate it.
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06-23-2012, 05:04 AM
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#2
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arbitrary and capricious
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Overestimating fold equity
Posts: 15,469
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Re: Live 1-2 Ultra Deep: Flop Math/Best Line W/ Solid Draw Against Top Set
| Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|
| asqsad6h | 43.27% | 258,814 | 1,668 | | jj | 56.73% | 339,518 | 1,668 |
Technically you're getting the right price by a hair but I'm not sure jamming is the best play. When you're deepstacked in a soft game with a capped buy in, sometimes it's better to avoid playing for stacks in marginal situations like this one so you can take advantage of better spots later on.
You could also just call and see what the turn brings. People don't like folding sets so if you hit you'll have an opportunity to get your money as an 80% favorite unless your friend is good enough to lay his hand down. Also, there are a lot of straight cards which could slow your friend down and let you see the river for free or give you a chance to semi bluff if your friend is the type to fold in such spots.
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06-23-2012, 05:07 AM
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#3
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journeyman
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Athens
Posts: 354
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Re: Live 1-2 Ultra Deep: Flop Math/Best Line W/ Solid Draw Against Top Set
i assume after this one you two won't be good friends ever again
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06-23-2012, 05:09 AM
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#4
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journeyman
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Athens
Posts: 354
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Re: Live 1-2 Ultra Deep: Flop Math/Best Line W/ Solid Draw Against Top Set
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom1975
| Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|
| asqsad6h | 43.27% | 258,814 | 1,668 | | jj | 56.73% | 339,518 | 1,668 |
Technically you're getting the right price by a hair but I'm not sure jamming is the best play. When you're deepstacked in a soft game with a capped buy in, sometimes it's better to avoid playing for stacks in marginal situations like this one so you can take advantage of better spots later on.
You could also just call and see what the turn brings. People don't like folding sets so if you hit you'll have an opportunity to get your money as an 80% favorite unless your friend is good enough to lay his hand down. Also, there are a lot of straight cards which could slow your friend down and let you see the river for free or give you a chance to semi bluff if your friend is the type to fold in such spots.
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if you decide to go with it , not shipping the flop is a huge huge mistake
i agree with this being a marginal situation tho , i'd 3bet pre so i'd have a easy decision on the flop
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06-23-2012, 06:56 AM
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#5
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stranger
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 8
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Re: Live 1-2 Ultra Deep: Flop Math/Best Line W/ Solid Draw Against Top Set
sorry for the bad english (it is not my mother language.
I think it is better to just call. This way, the remaining effective stack will be 620 and the pot will be 750. With this multi draw flop and the pot odds, If you hit and bet on the turn many players will call with a set.
If you miss on the turn you still have the odds to call with your 13 winning river cards (2 aces, 4 kings and the spades) and some implied odds and bluffing opportunities. The benefit of calling is obvious: you can fold when the turn gives a full to V1 and you can keep the semi-bluff opportunity open if the turn is a Q,7,8 or 9.
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06-23-2012, 07:54 AM
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#6
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old hand
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 1,362
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Re: Live 1-2 Ultra Deep: Flop Math/Best Line W/ Solid Draw Against Top Set
if you really can put him on JJxx "for a certainty", jamming is wrong, call and fold to a board pairing turn. if you think there is a chance he is doing it with a draw, get it in.
if your friend is so timid to only raise top set in this situation, call, see if the turn brings a str8 card and pot it. nitty as he is, he might fold.
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06-24-2012, 03:51 PM
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#7
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old hand
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 1,895
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Re: Live 1-2 Ultra Deep: Flop Math/Best Line W/ Solid Draw Against Top Set
Just wanted to say thanks to everyone for the feedback, some interesting ideas and a reassuring stove - if anyone else wants to contribute, please do. V1 and I are still good friends.
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06-24-2012, 11:10 PM
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#8
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centurion
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 127
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Re: Live 1-2 Ultra Deep: Flop Math/Best Line W/ Solid Draw Against Top Set
7buyins is not ultra deep.
i've seen games played with 40-50 buyins stacks.
if i put my opp on JJ alone (altough i really can't see how you can do this 100%) i might call and donk out on any str8 card/flush card adding some FE to my equity.
as played, shoving is bad unless you run it twice or smth.
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06-25-2012, 12:06 AM
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#9
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journeyman
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Athens
Posts: 354
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Re: Live 1-2 Ultra Deep: Flop Math/Best Line W/ Solid Draw Against Top Set
i don't understand why everyone say that they would call and donk all the scare cards...
what if a blank pops up on the turn?? he will pot it 100% are you willing to commit the rest of your stack with 25% ?
also who guarentees that he'll fold if the turn is a Q and you pot it ?
also if a spade comes on the turn and you bet big (if he's not a really bad player) he'll fold and you'll lose a ton of value.
not a fan of shipping 500bbs with combos but the way this hand came i don't believe that flatting is an option
*and how the hell are u so sure that he has top set considering that you know V2 had a J?
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06-25-2012, 05:39 AM
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#10
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arbitrary and capricious
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Overestimating fold equity
Posts: 15,469
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Re: Live 1-2 Ultra Deep: Flop Math/Best Line W/ Solid Draw Against Top Set
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoKon
i don't understand why everyone say that they would call and donk all the scare cards...
what if a blank pops up on the turn?? he will pot it 100% are you willing to commit the rest of your stack with 25% ?
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If the turn's a blank and he pots it we should fold. If OP's plan is to call in this spot then he's better off just shipping the flop.
Quote:
also who guarentees that he'll fold if the turn is a Q and you pot it ?
also if a spade comes on the turn and you bet big (if he's not a really bad player) he'll fold and you'll lose a ton of value.
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Well either he'll fold to a scare card or he won't. If he's the type that will then we have good bluff equity on straight cards. If not, then we can get our money in as 80% favorite when we do hit.
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06-26-2012, 03:47 PM
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#11
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stranger
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 8
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Re: Live 1-2 Ultra Deep: Flop Math/Best Line W/ Solid Draw Against Top Set
As i said above, if the turn is a he has 13 outs for
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