I don't usually make these kind of posts, because I would consider them counter-productive, but to be honest my confidence has been shattered so badly that I need to know if I truly do run as bad as I think I run or if I just have a million leaks that are the ultimate reason for my bad results.
I play LHE and PLO. At LHE I have been running so bad it's just out of this world. The last month, bumhunting about 60% and playing weakish regs 40% of the time, I have pretty much lost every single match I've played for a -$50k month at the highest stakes I play, 50/100, that has crippled my roll. In fact, at the moment I am online busto. I still have about $25k to my name which is absolutely nothing, but not a disaster if I thought that I could just run normally and get my fair share of luck and bad luck. The thing is that, for what seems like an eternity at this stage, I just cannot shake off the run-bad.
Basically, my biggest issue is that I am a reasonably tight player and I'd consisder myself a reasonably smart player. The opponents I play against on Betfair are usually pretty laggy. As a result, my non-SD winnings are always gonna be significantly negative, but my SD-winnings are pretty high. People just don't fold all that much in these games, and they stack off pretty light.
The problem is that the edge that I give up by letting them take the small pots should be more than amply compensated by getting it in with very good equity in all the all-ins. However, the problem is that if I have 60% average equity, it feels like I win 40% of the time at best. I just constantly get hammered and sucked out on all the time and it's a truly rare thing that I would find myself sucking out on someone else.
Recently, I took a break from Betfair as it seemed like a genuine impossibility to win there, so I went ahead and switched it up multi-tabling on PokerStars (9-12 tables) for a 3/4-day period where I logged 15,000 hands. The competition wasn't great, but I mean wasn't fantastic either. I ended up 3 buyins after all was said and done at 1/2 PLO, but was just so burned out by the run-bad and by the crippling rake that I didn't continue to play. Before anyone says "well u shud continue to play" I busted my stars roll playing HU LHE, but I won't even talk about that, as LHE luck cannot be measured all that accurately.
Anyway, I'm posting a few graphs and I'd like some input. Is it just a matter of running like crap? Or are these graphs often skewed and cannot be trusted?? I am looking either for criticism and a reality check (e.g. you're probably playing pretty badly and getting outplayed etc) or a confidence boost (yeah, your results are bad pretty much coz of your run-bad).
Either way, I need some sort of feedback because it's driving me mad, and I'm close to packing the whole thing in (well - as close as a degen poker player will ever be
Game Analysis Graph on Betfair
All-in Luck Graph on Betfair
Game Analysis Graph on Stars
All-in Luck Graph on Stars
Btw, I play mostly 5/10 on Betfair and pretty much all 1/2 on Stars. There IS a small bit of 10/20 and a small bit of 2.50/5 thrown in on Bfair.