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HR 1-2-5 PLO8 Flopped Nuts no redraw concerns? HR 1-2-5 PLO8 Flopped Nuts no redraw concerns?

04-28-2017 , 08:27 PM
Setup: Local cardroom, 2 tables with PLO/PLO8 mix. Players sitting generally between $300-600. This is the Hi-Lo orbit. I'm in the big blind.

H: A34T

V1: Pots to $15, two callers, I also call. ($62)

Flop: 256

I think there is a word for this flop?
H: Pot ($124)
V1: Repot ($248)
V2: Fold
V3: Fold

Hero?

Repot? Call?
What's the level of concern in this spot facing probable quartering or possibly being out drawn in later streets, as I obviously have zero redraws? Is there an argument for a fold?

TIA
HR 1-2-5 PLO8 Flopped Nuts no redraw concerns? Quote
04-28-2017 , 09:33 PM
You can't fold here with the nut hi and uncounterfeitable nut low, if the game was hi only you can think about folding

Al in

Also, you aren't very deep
HR 1-2-5 PLO8 Flopped Nuts no redraw concerns? Quote
04-29-2017 , 02:04 AM
Thanks. That is certainly how I was leaning. After the hand I re-thought through and wondered if it was logical to take a different line from (results):
Spoiler:
I repotted, got it all in on the flop. Sure enough, we basically had the same hand except -- he had major redraws I did not have. 2346 turn/river bricked out completing no additional draws nor pairing the board so I lucked out and split the hi and lo. Villain, however, clearly had far superior redraws and was freerolling to I think 13 outs to quarter me with a better high. In theory, I could have entered check-call down mode but we would've gotten the rest in on the turn regardless because of Villain's redraw strength.

Results would have been the same, so I suppose to clarify the question a bit, about the theory of when to enter check-call mode?
HR 1-2-5 PLO8 Flopped Nuts no redraw concerns? Quote
04-29-2017 , 08:46 AM
This might be the closest I've gotten to reporting a thread.
HR 1-2-5 PLO8 Flopped Nuts no redraw concerns? Quote
04-29-2017 , 09:09 AM
OP, You played yourself out of 1/4 of the pot, you should have split the high and won the low with your A3 (31) vs his 32 so should have won 75% of the pot, not 50%. Btw your hand is the favorite (around 57.5/42.5) as you have a much stronger hold on the low then he has to redraw on you on the high. Here are the approximate frequencies of what will happen:

Hero
wins hi 0%
wins low 86%
ties hi 45%
ties low 14%

Villain
wins hi 55%
wins low 0%
ties hi 45%
ties low 14%

Cancel out the duplicate % then subtract the difference, you are left with ~31% for Hero, but since each hold or redraw is only for half of the pot you cut this in half and are left with is ~15.5% which is where the difference between 57.5 and 42.5% comes from.





http://www.propokertools.com/simulations
HR 1-2-5 PLO8 Flopped Nuts no redraw concerns? Quote
04-29-2017 , 12:35 PM
I'm literally twitching imagining you existing OP
HR 1-2-5 PLO8 Flopped Nuts no redraw concerns? Quote
04-29-2017 , 01:39 PM
( ) basically the same hand


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HR 1-2-5 PLO8 Flopped Nuts no redraw concerns? Quote
04-29-2017 , 05:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeaKing
OP, You played yourself out of 1/4 of the pot, you should have split the high and won the low with your A3 (31) vs his 32 so should have won 75% of the pot, not 50%. Btw your hand is the favorite (around 57.5/42.5) as you have a much stronger hold on the low then he has to redraw on you on the high. Here are the approximate frequencies of what will happen:
Thank you. I think perhaps I mis-recorded Villain's hand. Must have been an nfd with same low instead of 2-pair w/ fd. Sorry for the mistake. Thanks for the information and analysis.
HR 1-2-5 PLO8 Flopped Nuts no redraw concerns? Quote
04-30-2017 , 12:27 PM
Well played. Lol at considering folding if only hi.
HR 1-2-5 PLO8 Flopped Nuts no redraw concerns? Quote
05-01-2017 , 03:26 PM
Nut / Nut and not particularly deep stacked. If you ever fold here, you should quit poker.
HR 1-2-5 PLO8 Flopped Nuts no redraw concerns? Quote

      
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