So this game was a local game during some tournament series in Calgary and it was super juicy with like 5 whales and couple regs and 1 beast and then me (I won't classify my level of play)


So this hand was somewhat surprising because UTG-MP folded, which has never happened on this table.

Villain in this hand is in CO and is the beast we are facing. He knows the game all round really well, plans all streets ahead in most spots, and is aware of table dynamics...also understands hand values relative to betting trends to a great extent

Hero is dealt AA49 (12k)
Villain has Hero covered.

V(CO) raises to 100, BU folds, SB folds, Hero calls

Flop ($210) A22
Hero checks
V checks

Turn (210) A
Hero bets 120
V raises 250
Hero calls

River ($710) 5
Hero checks
V bets $400
Hero raises to $1175
V raises $2025
Hero raises to $5975
V Shoves all in
Hero (~6k to call)

Such a gross spot because I can't see too many 22xx combos in his range, and I think he just calls the $1175 with 55 and calls with 22 after i raise to 5975...

Call? fold?

I'll release some results after some discussion

Is he capable of running the 'ole naked 3h bluff, knowing your capable of laying down quads?

i'm calling here 100 percent because a) you've under represented your hand on all streets until the river, b) he might be representing the hand you have, partially because up until the river you haven't, c) ... and this is probably the most important point ... there are so few hands in his range that have 3h4h that minraise the turn.

sorry you lost to a straight flush :/.

i hope u didnt fold

Edit: nvm

Beast's perception of your level of play is the most important piece of info to share imo

Is the combined portion of his river shoving range containing:

- 22 trying to get thin value from A5

and containing

- A naked duece + naked 3 or 4 of hearts (I would think beast would need both blockers) trying to get you to raise / fold A5

Equal to or greater than 32% of his river shoving range?

I shrug call, but I only fullstack up to 5/5 so...

watever who cares, once in a lifetime setup if he has it

call because otherwise hard to sleep at night

He thinks we are TAG and usually not peeling too wide from blinds, and playing a tighter pre gam, and playing strong postflop...

All in all he thinks we are just a good reg, I don't know more than that, he's got his targets set on some of the whales on the table, hasn't gotten too out of line against me yet and respects our game quite a bit.

if you don't think he has too many 22xx combo's what's the raise to 5975 good for? If your image is fairly solid he shouldn't be 3b river with 55 ever

apart from 22 and 3h4h there is no value hand in his range that would 3b that river for value.
so if you discard 22 from his starting range almost ever then a 4b is not optimal.
nevertheless you gotta call now.

i'd pot his river bet, then call any raise.

who is 5-bet shoving the river with 2nd nuts vs a tagish (i assume) reg? you can "happily" fold as played.

meh, we don´t have a 2 blocker, he might play quads the same, i don´t really think he would minraise a str8 flush gs ott ip this deep tbh, seems like a call. esp as played

how often are you flatting pre here w/ AAxx?

one of those spots where you have to compare the relative probability of two extremely unlikely events. as already stated, he really shouldnt have very much 43hh given turn action, however tbh you can name any hand and i could make a case that he cant have it given action/sizing on one street or another, so im not sure how much that logic can be applied. to be honest youve both played the hand unusually enough that i think traditional handreading can pretty much go out the window.

if i were you what id be most concerned about is his river 3bet sizing - given how deep stacks are it looks to me like hes sized the perfect amount to give himself a chance at your entire stack - if action goes 400 him/1175 you/reraise pot him, i think he thinks you prob freeze up more with your AA/22/A5 hands, double and triple chk board and maybe catch the st flush you might otherwise miss, whereas by essentially clicking it back he increases the probability that you either 4b bluff or value 4b worse (whether by still not seeing the st flush or by seeing it and not assigning its presence enough weight to just call), and he then gets to put a ton more money in.

idk, i think i could make a pretty persuasive case for either option. im not sure id sleep too well if i folded as one guy said, and its not entirely impossible (although it would strongly argue against your description of him) for him to be valueraising 22, given that there is one potential combo of AA against six of A5, and he may consider the st flush irrelevant given pre river action (or he may have 22+st flush blocker, but there arent a ton of combos of those in his likely pf range). on the other hand, the whole hand has played out so weirdly that if i were him with a hand that wasnt the stone nuts, id be pretty happy to terminate the betting and get to showdown without an overwhelming justification for going for more (increasingly thin) river value.

given its live, its actually a pretty good spot to make him aware of your hand and sweat him out for a few minutes (idk exactly what rules are re disclosing ur hand but i assume that at least verbalising the existence of a straight flush on board is allowed).

sigh call, and start thinking before 4b'ing the river for stacks

If he's a beast he should be cbetting his quads the vast majority of the time. Great texture to do so, you get peeled as light as Axxx every time. Particularly poor texture to slowplay quads to let people catch up to a monster, cause they can't improve to any nut boats.

Let's consider the option he checked back the flop with quads though. For him to 5bet shove quads, get called and win, we need to have A5 in our perceived 4betting range. Your table image is a decisive factor here, but if you're a relatively straightforward TAG whose game plan revolves around showing down winners vs whales, I'd say that's highly optimistic. I don't think he expects you to 4bet A5, because for that to happen profitably, villain's 3bet range needs to include hands like underboats and flushes which he's trying to induce spazzes with from either Axxx or other blockers. These spazzing assumptions are, imo, extremely optimistic, in a reg vs reg pot that was relatively small on the river on a table packed with whales.

Taking into account both these considerations, the chance he's value owning himself with quads becomes very small. So we're left with straight flushes and straight flush blockers. Pot odds are about 2 to 1. Do you really think he's doing this with blockers 1 in 3 times? It's really not that hard to be dealt two specific cards in this game. You're repping quads, you're getting great odds. Very inattractive spot to bluff, particularly because as illustrated in this thread most people call just to sleep at night even though they realize there's no way they're good 1 in 3 times.

Aren't ya freerolling anyways with grey eagle bad beat JP?

I looked at bad beat and it was at like 3k...so I guess I only have to call 4500 technically... In all events where I lose I get 1500 from bad beat. But just like you said it's so hard for me to see him with either 22 in his range or 34hh...but complete air would be way too ambitious

who is said beast... Karim?

This is sick. I am calling and i assume you did as well?

im sure its already been said but since there is 1 value combo your ahead of and 1 your behind of just call his CIB raise to 2k and be done with it. Unlikely you get his full stack no matter what he has by reopening betting. His bluff combos.........and if hes a beast........shouldn't really exist on this board so they dont put more in anyways.

Doesnt he have both in his range if he opened the pot LP? Double paired 22 hands, A223, A234hh etc

think he just flats w/ 22 here a non zero percent of the time btw so he can prob only have 1 value hand some of the time. Idk if that's true tho. that being said i don't think i ever fold here just in case of spazzes and he might show up w/ 22 or like a 2 w/ a straight flush blocker trying to get u to fold a2 as ur had is perceived prob. Seems like a spot where a huge fold is more likely to be really bad then really good. pretty sure he has more 22xx in his range then 3h4h and prob more likely to play the hand this way except for the river shove maybe.

one more thing:

if you were that worried about a straight flush, then you shouldn't be 4betting river planning to fold to a shove.

No aces are possible in the range.