*** December LC Thread ***

[Mt.FishNoob]

oddson: The worst thing about a downswing is not actually losing X amount of money/buy-ins (even though that does hurt a bit) but it can actually be a disaster for your game as you start adjusting your game and come up with new styles, testing new strategies etc. When you are in a downswing or after you have been in one, you could basically be playing a whole different style than what you used to be playing. This is the hardest part to adjust to during a downswing, as you need to focus a lot of attention in trying to keep your game balanced in the same way as before however difficult it may be.

Anyone else disagree with this? If you are defining downswing as running bad and this causes tilt which messes up your already winning game then ok I agree. But in general experimenting, changing contributes to the evolution of lore and is mandatory for progression. The worst thing about a downswing is the best thing, once you climb back out you are that much more solid than previously. I say this as significant downswings may be due to coming across more rocks playing as scissors than normally, downswings may pressure into an adjustment or knowledge of paper and rock... I am out of a 72 buy in downswing and I feel my game is strongest yet due to changing my thought process a zillion times. IRONICALLY THOUGH I have returned to a mindset I had a long time ago but I do believe that mindset was discovered in a downswing and lost again over a huge volume of profit.

Point can be shown by also saying, the worst thing about an upswing is that you start to autopilot and take your game as +ev for granted- situations become (too) simplified. The variation in villains and the deck is huge and upswings may disable the development of lore in mindsets and patterns. So the worst thing is the $ and bb as this is the cost of experience.

[wazz]

Not really something you can say hes worry about - when it comes to downswings ymmv, they come in different forms and they affect people differently.

In more pressing news - oh my, stomach very, very full. Merry christmas 2+2 folks.

[Roman]

Originally Posted by Mt.FishNoob

Anyone else disagree with this? If you are defining downswing as running bad and this causes tilt which messes up your already winning game then ok I agree. But in general experimenting, changing contributes to the evolution of lore and is mandatory for progression. The worst thing about a downswing is the best thing, once you climb back out you are that much more solid than previously. I say this as significant downswings may be due to coming across more rocks playing as scissors than normally, downswings may pressure into an adjustment or knowledge of paper and rock... I am out of a 72 buy in downswing and I feel my game is strongest yet due to changing my thought process a zillion times. IRONICALLY THOUGH I have returned to a mindset I had a long time ago but I do believe that mindset was discovered in a downswing and lost again over a huge volume of profit.

Point can be shown by also saying, the worst thing about an upswing is that you start to autopilot and take your game as +ev for granted- situations become (too) simplified. The variation in villains and the deck is huge and upswings may disable the development of lore in mindsets and patterns. So the worst thing is the $ and bb as this is the cost of experience.

meh, hes right imo. Lets say you find a spot to exploit your opponents that almost no one has found, you start running bad and get raised 15/20 times when it should work 15/20 times, you assume people adjusted and change your game. Or in 3bet pots you have a fairly well balanced tough to play against c/c range on some drawy boards, however you get smashed over and over again making a good play, so you start playing fit or fold on the same board.

[grizy]

If you estimate a move to work 3/4 of the time and it failed 3/4 instead, chances are your estimations were wrong.

5% probability you get 1 sucess or less with 75% p.

Over 20 trials, that goes down to basically zero.

Probability of 5 or fewer out of 20, with a given success rate
0.16%,60%
2.07%,50%
12.6%,40%

[urubu111]

Originally Posted by Roman

meh, hes right imo. Lets say you find a spot to exploit your opponents that almost no one has found, you start running bad and get raised 15/20 times when it should work 15/20 times, you assume people adjusted and change your game. Or in 3bet pots you have a fairly well balanced tough to play against c/c range on some drawy boards, however you get smashed over and over again making a good play, so you start playing fit or fold on the same board.

yes, i agree w this and w oddsen. also, theres a huge diference when you try a new play because you just think might be good play, than when you try a new play because you have been losing a lot last weeks...

losing your roll is bad, but losing your confidenec is worst thing ever that can happen during a downswing.

ps; nice interview oddsen... very fun comentary yuor father did about ilari ''he likes big pots' hahaha

[fanerio]

kinda helpless when you literally just flop bad at all in about 30+ 4bet pots over and over (x)k number of hands and lose with pair + fd vs naked AAxx over and over and people magically always flop like nfd + gs + AAxx when we make a pair

[fanerio]

has anyone got to the stage where they just "know" the right play in high variance close spots?

I basically randomly do stuff and hope it works out, can't exploit my tendencies when I don't even know what I'm doing imo

[napsus]

Originally Posted by fanerio

has anyone got to the stage where they just "know" the right play in high variance close spots?

I basically randomly do stuff and hope it works out, can't exploit my tendencies when I don't even know what I'm doing imo

i'm gonna have to nom this for the ssplo lc thread title......hilarious

funny because it's true i guess

[Papicoolo]

I play it the same, especially in huge multiway preflop pots. Afterwards I look up my equity and see the (majority of the time bad) results....

Random spot I had yesterday and I really have no idea, what to do.

On my mac right now so no HH:
stacksize: 4 handed everybody got around 300BB, 4bet guy is pretty tight

I pick up JT97ss or from co
after me there are only raises(3bet,4bet,5bet) and I assume, that 4bet guy has AAxx around 80% of the time and 5bet guy 100%. BU is a good reg, who is not afraid to gamble. So it's pretty likely, that it's going to be a 4 way all in.

Is it fine to just smooth call here?

edit: can anybody give a range of hands, which I can profitable call here?

[fanerio]

AAxx, AKKx, 6654ss

ldo

[urubu111]

AKK is the worst hand ever to have in this spot.

id rather have some real trash like J832 than AKK.

[fanerio]

i meant for them, not for us

i'd rather have whatever that wins the 3000bb pot

[MauriceSch]

I only go in there with 4456

[insyder19]

being on an upswing and thinking calling a 5bt with whatever because you keep winning is worse than changing your game when on downswing.

also changing game means improving it which is good. not working on your game will make regs kill you

[grizy]

Originally Posted by insyder19

also changing game means improving it which is good.

In my experience, playing and coaching, this is not true with most players while on downswing.

Most players, not all, that I've met start questioning every move and stop doing things that made them winners in the first place.

It's a very difficult balance to strike but the best thing to do is really to incrementally improve by memorizing all the GOOD moves you make until it becomes second nature.