5-10-20 (mandatory 20$ straddle) Plo cash game at the Aria.

Hero in the BB $3,700 effective with AJ75, 3 limpers, I complete the 20, straddle (well known grinder Alex, solid thus far) raises 140 making it 160 to go, everyone calls. Flop is J103, I check, original raiser leads out for 800(pot) folds to me. I have 3560 back at this point and Villian covers me. Thoughts ......?

I probably won't do it in a live game too, but the first obv advise is to fold and not call the 140 oop with a weak hand.

Thoughts?, you go allin.

Exactly what joeri wrote...

I think this is a fold or GII spot since OOP. I don't like a call because any turn that improves your hand will either be a scare card (diamond or J) or may make you a second place hand. I'm guessing a well-known grinder can make some tight folds, such as when you lead on a diamond turn, which kills your implied odds.

I also think he is not potting as a cbet 5-way with just dry aces or other weak hand. I think his range is overpair with backup, top 2 with straight draw, set, and a myriad of straight and/or flush draws around the JT. Your equity is in the low 30's versus JJxx or TTxx, and 40-55% versus most of the other hands. If he never folds, you would need 3560/(3560+3560+800) = 45% equity. So, whether to ship, really depends on how much fold equity you think you have here. You didn't say if he is tight or your image is really tight, either of which increase FE.

There is probably some FE, but I don't think enough to make it more than a break-even, high variance EV spot to GII. So, I'd fold.

funny...

very easy gii btw...

Yeah man just get it in for sure. I don't think pre is an insta-fold, for me it's whatever.

are you the young white guy from hawaii that mostly plays nl?

Why did you check?

yea 5 way call this pre and gii

Bec check is best

+1

Yeah, since I am in the sb, and hand doesn't offer much combo draw potential I don't think a fold pre is horrible, 5 way I think its a more clear call in position.

Thanks for the analysis man, very helpful! I decided it was a fold or get it in spot too, hate to get barreled off a dry turn.

Haha, no but I think I know who you are talking about, and he is one of my closest friends. We grew up playing ftp/stars together out here in HI. Were you playing in this game a bunch last weekend?

Conclusion :

I tanked, initially was leaning towards folding, as IMO it is a get it in or fold spot with stack sizes/position, and a player of his caliber will rarely lead full pot into 5 others OOP on a flop with a hand he isn't willing to go with. But then again, I do have the Aand a J, which rules out AAxx w/nfd, and make top set less likely, as I can't really see him raising the straddle w/ 4 other limpers OOP, w/ too many hands that have 1010 in them (Game relatively just started, he was already winning a bit 500ish, not tilting etc) So I decided his range leaned towards hands like KKxx , or KKxx with straight draws. Not doing terrible against that range, and might actually have some fold equity as its tough to call off 3.5k more w/out NFD or a set, so opted to ship it, he called shortly after. We decided to run it twice before hands were shown. He flipped over J10K9 , I bricked both runs. Back to the micros.....

U run bad doe,
if it was me I woulda: ace on turn, brick river--> first run out

Diamond turn, brick river--> second run

Scoopaloop

u should have pointed out the deck was fouled and got your money back

LOL
Thats normally what happens to me, you should have seen the look of surprise on my face

If this is your only shot at the game then that's probably a good reason to fold pre but once you don't can't see what u can do

Not my only shot, but if it was I agree fold pre 100% haha!