villain is a whale, 95/36 3bet 20%.

after i bet on turn, i have ~180bbs left in my stack.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
PL Omaha $4(BB) Replayer
SB ($677)
BB ($318)
UTG ($253)
UTG+1 ($400)
Hero ($1,372)
BTN ($1,499)

Dealt to Hero 5 A 8 A

fold, fold, Hero raises to $12, BTN raises to $36, fold, fold, Hero raises to $114, BTN calls $78

FLOP ($234) 7 J 2

Hero bets $162, BTN calls $162

TURN ($558) 7 J 2 5

Hero bets $324, BTN raises to $812, Hero FML.....??????

get in or cry and fold?

Against a decent player I would get it in. The line is strange and there aren't many quality hands beating us. Against a whale with those stats he could have a whole bunch of hands beating us. I guess it depends how he normally plays post flop

Turn is a sigh fold either way unless he's more bat**** than I think he is

He likely has 2pair or set otherwise he might be on a draw like J89Tss 89Tx 689xss that said the turn is a super hard call/shove for you, i would be inclined to fold but a shove is not out of the question really tough spot urubu, cool hand which should get some interesting discussion.

This dry of a flop, wouldn't it be standard to flat call a set in position?

vs a set youre 2.5%
vs 2 pair youre ~15% (lower if he has flush draw as well or A blocker, higher if your 8 is somehow an out)
vs one pair hands with other outs (QJT9ss 987*ss 986*ss etc) youre ~47%

you need to be ~26%. seems like a close fold as id estimate youre in the low 20s vs him. my guess is that 150bb left is about the threshold for call/fold being 0 ev.

This really depends on the fish IMO. I don't think it's an obvious fold at all. If he's fish enough to never lay down hands like Jxxx, QQxx, or KKxx then it is a call. There are also tons of one pair hands that come with all kinds of draws like FD+GS or OE+FD. If he could do this with those hands you get way past 26%.

Yup and fish knows that.

How do you interpret his raise size particularly that he raised less than all in in a spot where you figure to have no fe. Some players (fish in particular) have polarized sizing (i.e. mainly nut hands) some do it with everything. If the latter were true I would jam because he plays 95% of hands pf and can have random straight draws or Jxxx or KKxx. Def a tough spot though.

If I played this hand against you, I would openfold turn if you flatted flop like this.

wait for better spot when you have a hand that beats 2pr and not just a str8 up bluff

The fact that he is playing 95/36 or we and has a healthy stack in front of him would make me assume he isn't getting too out of line postflpp. Against a decent player, it would be tough to put them on any 77xx, 55xx, or even JJxx combinations, although the later being much more likely. However, given villains description you could be up against virtually any of these hands and it sure is playing out that way. Maybe he's a whale, but not a fish, and knows his image could allow him to push you off the exact type of hand he thinks you have. You should probably fold, but if you play with this guy a lot, and he is a confirmed whale, it might just be worth the information and for your image to make the call and look him up.

I know we have really great AAxx but is everyone 4betting oop 340 bbs deep? Would rather 4b a QJT9 type hand imo given he's never folding and now we're playing a pot oop with a rather face up hand at a STP ratio over 5. Just saying he's going to make his postflop decisions assuming we have AAxx or AKKx a huge % of the time.

I would fold

#1 - He's a recreational player. He might think you have AA and KK mostly but it's never bad to build a huge pot pre with AAds IMO. Especially against players who will be seeing flops way to wide and stacking off way to light.

#2 - If villain was a good reg neither your perceived range (nor your actual range) would be heavily weighted towards AA or KK because of what you said about rather 4 betting your premium ds rundowns.

the problem is that:
a) these hands are on average 52-53% vs us so he needs to have his raising range be >40% of them

b) most fish will flat these hands and see a river and then just call with everything on the river that beats AA and value bet most of it in position


i would be surprised if he raised 987ss on the turn instead of calling. if urubu has a read that he will always raise the turn with his big draws in that spot then its probably a sigh shove as they do make up more of his overall turn range than 2 pair+sets, but i think hes just gonna flat them a ton

nobody check/raising turn here?.....we are in horrible spot on river when he calls turn bet

It would be rare for villain described to play the same type of hand 2 different ways at a somewhat balanced frequency. IF they are playing these hands this way then I think they are playing 80%+ of them this way.
I agree. I think it's a fold vs. the majority but I was mostly playing devils advocate to those looking at this spot as a slam dunk fold. Against a chunk of players to significant to ignore this is a call IMO.

Definitely a fold when the fish raises less than pot. Guarantee you this makes his range significantly stronger than if he just shoved. The question is whether it's better to bet this turn, to C/R, or to C/F. Would need a lot more info on fish to come to a conclusion there.

Yes