if read is villain is a nit then this is a snap fold why are we discussing it?
if read is villain wont bluff raise with players left to act then this is a snap fold why are we discussing it?

if villain is actually a tough player, putting pressure on players, attacking pots, capable of semi bluff raising in spots, capable of multi street bluffs then this is where we discuss our options.

i don't think ive ever heard anyone label a nit as a tough player.

No tough players will ever raise this 4way flop vs a very big cbet, with 2 players behind, without an absolute monster. If the above is your definition of a tough player in this spot, you are way off.

lol joeri just give up already, let them discuss the hand the way they want to.

fyp

again as iggy said if other 2 players are deep it's a rly good spot to raise a dry 9 here. since op stated they were between 10 and 20k, the closer to 10k they are the more likely he's got a hand bc one of the two behind can say f*** it and pile it in.

Converting those big scary numbers to BB

Hero raises to 4BB, pre-flop with 4 callers.

Hero flops top two of a middling rainbow flop and has a non straight making overpair and backdoor #2 flush. Hero bets 15BB into a 20BB pot and gets raised 25BB by a tough and capable player.

Action is on the hero oop and deciding on whether to call the 25BB raise into a now 59BB pot and his subsequent line if he does. Hero and villain have 250+ BB to play with.

I think:

The villain has QQ|KK|AA + danglers which connect some way to the flop or the Villian has Ace high run down centered around the T, or Villain has a set with possible G/S straight draw. The weakest and most unlikely hand I can put him on is 345x where x is probably not a total dangler.

Assuming tough and capable != nit, then I narrow it down to QQ|KK|AA + danglers that connect with the flop in some manner and an A high run down centered about the T.

This being a two gapper flop on the high end means that any straight draw the villain has will be the nut straight if they make it (in actuality any straight they make will be the nuts vs our holdings).

Without going any deeper, I'm inclined to call and pot on AKQJ96,3h,4h,2 and C/F any T875, the added benefit is they might check along and give me another shot.

Assuming I have the bank roll to survive and thrive should I have erred or got drawn out on.

The fact that

i would like to know, how many players do you have in your databases that raises 9xxx 4 way on 963r (or similar obv) ... in how many hands?

maybe I should listen to zacharrrr and stop posting here and let other people continue the discussion the way they want

Here is a derpy attempt at approximating this scenario:

$20,000 Stacks
$950 Dead Money from Limpers Blinds

16 "Relevant" Straightening Cards ignoring blockers (T,8,7,5)

6 Killer Outs (9,6) approximated as 90%

24 Other Live Cards

EV(Fold)=-$1900

EV(All-In)=-$3620

EV(Call)=16/45 (-$4400) + 6/45 * .9 ($20,950) - 6/45 * .1 ($20,000)+ 24/45 * .43 ($20,950) + 24/45 * .57 (-$20,000)=-$593

EV(Call)-EV(Fold)=+$1300

Close enough that refining the calculation could definitely make it slip into -EV territory. We need ~38% equity to shove turn and PPT says we have that only ~50% of the time in the aggregate, but I'm too lazy to use find Riemann sums for the PPT graph (if someone knows a simple way to do integrations with PPT date let me know please).

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.05 Professional)
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - 9s6h2d
PLAYER_1 30%T87,875,99,66,22),9678,9685,96T8
PLAYER_2 KK96
181 trials (randomized)


All-in Equity



PLAYER_1 HAND_VS_RANGE Next Street Equity

I really wish that posts and discussions took less of a sarcastic/egotistic tone. You are posting here because you are ..
A) interested in poker theory with other competent players
B) here to feel superior and post in ways that reinforce that
C) learning
Everyone has something to offer and it would be really refreshing to see this high stakes forum continue where the high stakes nl forum became a waste of time.

I played these games all summer - at the rio, not when it moved to the Bellagio.
If I were in the hot seat this hand I would fold flop to the raise.

When the spewing starts and the money gets flying around, as it did all summer in these games, it was never in spots like this, ever. Readless, sitting and reading the posts in this thread. Bet/fold flop.

Biggest redraw he can have is not 8 outs twice, you're forgetting about the new-top-2 redraws that he would have in addition to the straight draw: 9876 is drawing to 14 outs, for example.

Do you consider a wrap "an absolute monster"? Because raising a wrap can't be bad here. Other stuff can be OK to raise too if we're deep enough just because this flop is so hard to connect with, but if the other players are only 100bb deep, it's not good, yeah.

I swear all the people in the fold camp are just completely ignoring that this is like one of the top 5 or 10% toughest flops to hit hard.

Agree but making a exploitable fold when its unlikly to get exploited because of the scenario shouldn´t be our #1 consideration(?): We bet intop 4play + he raises with to players bgehind to act? I doubt many people have a bluff raising range here....

Jeah good wraps are in the monster camp. 6789, 789t, 578t.

For the 2nd alinea; i agree to that fact. However we cbet here about 80% of the potsize on a 4way flop. I guess that shows a lot of strenght. I feel like i only cbet aaxx if you have added value like aa78 or aa89. I still read his raise as really really strong.

But i guess people just disagree on this. If you think he has a set like 5%-10% its a clear call or push, especially if you think he sometimes raises light. If you think he has sets like 30% and very strong draws 70% of the time (like i do) its a clear fold. As long as people don't agree on his range, there will not be a consencus and i dont think thats bad at all. Omaha is fun because there are so many different winning strategies and gameplans.

But this is a very interesting spot. Makes me think what we do in the same spot with aa78 with 1 backdoor fd. Does this become a clear call or do you guys think a ship is best in that situation (i guess fold is out of the question with this small raise).

ev(fold) = 0 , am i wrong?

I don't have a bet/call range on this flop. I rarely c/c but usually c/r or bet and get it in. AA87 is going in with SPR 12 and should have better equity against a stackoff range than kk96.

Does the math bear this out? If we're getting 3:1 on the flop when we're ~40% against villain's range, and we have a good idea which turn cards are better for our range and which aren't, how can calling be bad?