5-5 plo at Borgata

Villain 1 - (main villain) $4000 has only been in game for about an hour bought in for 2500 splashes around pre, but has been pretty straight forward post . He racks his chips and starts to leave the table, comes back and asks the dealer to color him up . She tells him to wait till the hand is over and she will do it, because she already dealt the sb's first card . So he is utg and asks to be dealt in . I think this is relevant because I feel it should tighten his range up since he's trying to leave .

Villain : 2 (600) pretty nitty older reg.

Hero: (6000)

So villain 1 limps utg , limps 3 ways to hj who makes it 35 . We call in co with 5677 ddss . Button folds . Both blinds call as do all Limpers. We go 7 ways to flop.

Flop : (245) 10c 10s 7c

Checks to villain 1, who leads for 180. Folds to pfr and he shoves for 565. We ?

Not sure what's the correct play here . I don't really love any of my options here were pretty deep with villain 1 . And it's pretty clear they both have a 10 so any turn card is going to suck other than the case 7 .
I was thinking if I raise here he might be more inclined to fold any 10 thats not 10 7 since he was going to leave and may not want to play a big pot .
If I flat I'm gonna be in the dark with any turn that's over a 6 .
I went back and forth with this for a while in game .

800bb is too much to commit in this spot in a single raised pot.

It's safe to assume that our tight nitty regular probably has Txxx+ which we should be GII w/ 100%. Other villain leading could mean a lot of things, the other Txxx combos, maybe some strong semi-bluffs like fd+wrap, or some overpairs KKxx+ that decided to limp/call preflop (which fits with the small-ball nitty read you have on him).

If you believe they can both only ever have combos of Txxx, then I'm jamming 100% here. 2 combos T7xx left in the deck and countless combos of Txxx so this is a good spot to extract a lot of value and obviously protect our hand - because as you said you are going to be in the dark on any 8+ turn card considering it was a limped pot and these players could have any sort of side cards with their T.

Agree with above (gakn29 post) that you've got to fold.

The problem is that if you reshove you are probably only being put in by Villain 1 if you are desperately unlucky and he has T7, or if you fold him out then villain 2 either has T7 or has about 40% equity if he has Txxx drawing to a better house.

So it is kind of a raising into a dry pot situation for you and you can't flat on the flop as that is too exploitable by Villain 1.

I think it is unlikely that Villain 1 would get it all in with you on the flop with Txxx.

It's a knot in the stomach pass on the flop but I think you have to do it and look for better spots than this.

Agreed if they both have Txxx then we jam as we are about 40% (v 30% and 30%), but I still think the risk of either of them having a made T7xx is too high to justify the risk here.

It is a really interesting spot because the fact that Villain 1 has his chips in the rack and leads out does imply his range is stronger than if he was not planning to leave, so reduces the chances of him leading with an overpair or with a stab at the pot.

I remember this. NH))

Given the last-hand-of-the-night read the only semibluffs I would include in V1s range are 89 and double overpairs. I don't think he wants to be messing around drawing to non nutted hands.

Tough spot.

If we flat flop how often will V1 raise? Always with T7 and pretty much never with TXXX right?

I risk the 565 to try to see the turn, expecting V1 to not be overaggressive in a protected pot on the turn and river.

anything other than a fold is incorrect..........