Game goes around one or two players.

Hero (2200) is very new to the game, but not new to the room. I assume most of the regs aren't quite sure what to think about me yet, but most likely view me as 85% TAG, capable of getting out of line, a smidge stationy, but perhaps dangerous?

Villain (slightly covers) is solid reg. Winner in general, late 20s.

I have JcJd5h7h. The spot makes it 40, a couple calls in position. I call from SB, and we are 5 ways to flop.

Flop (200): Jh6d2d. Hero leads 135. Only Villain calls.

Turn (470): Ah. Hero bets 420. Villain tank calls.

River (1310): Kc. Hero bets 850...Is it better to pot?

I would think this is a fold pre from sb.....anyways Id prob check the riv - dont see how he calls anymore bets

I prefer a check decide on the river. Yes he can get to the river with 66xx sometimes. Majority of other potential bluff catchers though contain Ad which is the key bluff blocker to your range. By majority I mean maybe even 80%.

As played and to actually try to answer your question. Obviously his elacticity will depend on how frequently he sees you three barrelling draws etc so assuming no read and using profiles as stated..

- If Villain holds 66xx he should call again all sizings since little changed. You dont credibly rep braodway.
- If Villain holds KKxx AAxx he should call all sizings since JJxx 66xx is a big part of your range. Specifically AdAxx is more elastic however psb gives 2-1 as we know and that is more than enough value given the point about sets being a large part of your range. No limit Omaha we will have a decision eventually with tanks for stacks.
- If Villain holds his 2p combos with Ad ie AdKxx Adjxx Ad6xx that get to the river it gets interesting. 2-1 is not enough, you hold a set or better 80%+ imo therefore he needs 4-1+
- If Villain holds 2p without Ad, now we can add bluffs to your range. We do need to discount these since you have good sdv often and would check river. Still, this holding should call more than than when we have Ad. How often do we bet bet bet a diamond draw from EP tho that is the question
- Ax with other blockers eg AxQQx AxTTx cant get to the river

river check

why?
just asking since I think it´s such a clear bet overall...

i don't mind betting small to induce, betting a normal value size, or potting here. all are viable options and are going to depend on how you think your opponent will react to the respective sizes.

I think it's an easy value bet on river as well but I always have problems on what to do when they shove on me there. How do you handle that spot?

mostly shrug my shoulders and fold, and think about a bit vs the better ones

Definitely bet, sizing I think is fine

why is this a clear bet? aren't diamonds a huge part of his range? My only guess is you guys think he has a ton of nut diamonds that will have 2pr OTR

pre is fine, i'm more tempted to bet $500 on the river to get a call from aces up and to at least allow us the option to fold if we are raised if u bet $800 or pot it u are pot stuck if u get raised. good chance 666 or 222 would raise the flop.

Agreed, it's pretty hard for him to have QT (unless it's like QJT) and can definitely talk himself into calling here with aces up. Our bet-bet-bet looks really fishy on this runout.

Pretty hard for us to be bluffing, I'd just xc

agreed. If he's solid like you said :

-He won't have many 66xx in his preflop range
-He won't call with Aces up
-Can turn hand into bluffs and make you hate life

I think Check/decide is much better. Also gives him a chance to bluff.

I think you can bet because you're not afraid of much but if this is against a thinking player I would check and let him bluff river. Also I think if you're going to bet make it look like 345x or busted diamonds and pot river. Who folds AK here? Only with a great read.

The problem with this is what does AK beat that we would bet the river with? Anything with sdv surely we check call river + it is hard for us to have busted diamonds without that sdv. Are we betting flop and turn with T high diamonds? Or Q high diamonds without a T in our hand?

To the ones who says check the river, why not a 250 river bet ?

Difficult to fold any made hand to this sizing, in a spot we can have occasional bluffs.

pf is fine
lead is fine or x/r...depending on cbet ranges...many bad plo players are gonna be over cbetting and its just such a nice spot for xr
otr idk if this is a bet otr i think x /decide is prolly ok...

I am a bit stratted out from posting in a few other threads so my brain is too tired for the whole hand analysis, but IMO the call from the SB pre is horrible and definitely a losing play over a sample, and not even a big sample.

Some of the reasons why: you'll miss so often, you'll flop under sets and your redrawing capabilities are minimal.
Plus it's just hard to get paid from the SB so when you do occasionally hit you'll be trying to check raise inflate the pot and if/when no one takes the bait they'll often then pick up equity on the turn, especially if they are opening/calling pre with a more co-ordinated hand than yours.

If you were double suited to the Jack in both suits then you can maybe justify the call some of the time, and it would also be a component of a balanced calling range when in the SB.

I like it. I think we get heroed by the fish with 2 pair here given the runout. Not checking the river since he checks back all of his showdown and doesn't have a lot of non-showdown bluffs. I'd also never expect to get bluff-raised with 800+ sizing vs. his non-showdown hands.

Is villain the spot here?

No, the pfr is the action. Villain is a thinking pro. Looking back, I think I might have been single-suited to a jack instead of the 7, but I can't remember at this point. I agree that pf is extremely speculative, and a trivial fold in a lot of places, but based on game flow, I was willing to fall out of my way a bit to take swings with the pfr. In a vacuum, it's a rough hand obviously.

I thought the river was a bet because I expect AdAxXdXx to raise turn a lot of the time, and KxKxAdXd or weird QT combos are just really unlikey. Also, villain probably raises a lot of his suited AA and KK combos fairly often the first time around preflop. I think I can get hero'd by lower sets, or Aces up. Villain has seen me run without the ball, but probably expects me to be somewhat balanced. I think a triple barrel looks at least a little suspicious from his perspective. In my mind, I'm trying to rep flopped inside wrap + dd sort of hands. I agree that a lot of my flop semi-bluffs backed into showdown equity, and might not bluff river.

My main reason for posting was that I was wondering how often a thinking pro will have a material elasticity between calling 2/3 pot and calling full pot on river here. After the hand, I thought that anything that called 850, might be calling 1300, but maybe he expects a full pot to be weighted more towards value? Any thoughts on this? I realize it's villain dependent, but what do we think about a general baseline?