4-bet pot vs nit: Standard fold? - Page 4 - High Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

Spladle · 02-07-2012, 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by j.a.o.p.

supposed villain folds or shoves and we b/f...
pot $216
cbet $156
__________
50%FE= +$30
40%FE= -$6.40

20% of pot= +$43.20

That's not what winning 20% of the time means.

Spladle · 02-07-2012, 02:09 PM

What's up with all this talk about 3-barreling? If he flats the flop there will be $528 in the middle and he will have $581.75 behind.

Doorbread · 02-07-2012, 04:01 PM

^^ yeah youre right disregard posts... dont think we need to be so much deeper tho, like 225eff to be fine

j.a.o.p. · 02-07-2012, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spladle

That's not what winning 20% of the time means.

can u elaborate pls....?!

Spladle · 02-07-2012, 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by j.a.o.p.

can u elaborate pls....?!

The hand doesn't end if we check the flop.

Mad Twatter · 02-07-2012, 08:33 PM

if it did we'd win a fair bit more often than 20%

Spladle · 02-07-2012, 11:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mad Twatter

if it did we'd win a fair bit more often than 20%

Sure, but my point is that saying we'll win 20% of the time if we check doesn't mean the EV of checking is 20% of the pot. You have to take into account how much we'll win when we win and how much we'll lose when we lose. Very unlikely that those numbers are going to be the same.

SeaKing · 02-08-2012, 12:39 AM

This is like the nut worst non straight or flushed board texture for our hand in a 4 bet pot.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

10,860,080 trials (Exhaustive)

board: 9

2

8

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
adkd4hkh	47.03%	5,090,738	34,009
Ts***	52.97%	5,735,333	34,009

Need any other reason to check rather than bet?

MatthewRyan · 02-08-2012, 01:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeverScaredB

I think you should re-evaluate based on sizing and timing.

What does this mean?

I agree, its a clear check.

j.a.o.p. · 02-08-2012, 03:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spladle

Sure, but my point is that saying we'll win 20% of the time if we check doesn't mean the EV of checking is 20% of the pot. You have to take into account how much we'll win when we win and how much we'll lose when we lose. Very unlikely that those numbers are going to be the same.

ofc...but its easy to see that checking (even if we win as little as 20%)
will show better results as b/f

Spladle · 02-08-2012, 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by j.a.o.p.

ofc...but its easy to see that checking (even if we win as little as 20%)
will show better results as b/f

I agree that checking is better than betting, but the method you're using is not how one would go about proving it. You haven't even provided a basis for the 20% number.

j.a.o.p. · 02-08-2012, 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spladle

I agree that checking is better than betting, but the method you're using is not how one would go about proving it. You haven't even provided a basis for the 20% number.

there is not much to prove...taking a ridic low number....low number shows profit.....end of proving.
i know what line to take....how much these line is worth precisely....is irrelevant

Spladle · 02-08-2012, 07:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by j.a.o.p.

there is not much to prove...taking a ridic low number....low number shows profit.....end of proving.
i know what line to take....how much these line is worth precisely....is irrelevant

Good luck at the tables.