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/6 tough river decision /6 tough river decision

02-22-2010 , 10:00 PM
Meh, you're overthinking this one. C/c is standard and I think you might get hero called by a few worse hands if you shove..
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02-22-2010 , 10:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wazz
There is still some small chance he has a set and he will value-bet those when checked to
I don't understand this. Do you think you can bluff him off a set by shoving?
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02-22-2010 , 10:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wazz
So my reasoning for betting was the following.

He's unlikely to have sets, as discussed. He is likely to have AT, probably with a gutshot and/or flush draw, and might fold that hand. Even though so far he's owned me he might have just been getting lucky, or feels in the mood to hero-something me, whether that's a hero-call with A6/A8 or a hero-fold with AT. If he only calls with 79, and doesn't have 79 very often at all, then I can't see any disadvantage to shoving. That's ignoring, of course, the possibility of him shoving the river as a bluff when checked to, but I feel that me checking looks like a set or top two pair not confident enough to bet, but planning on calling a bet, and that he probably doesn't think I'm folding very often when I raise pre, bet the flop into two people, continue betting big on a relatively blank turn, and then check when an unlikely draw fills. There is still some small chance he has a set and he will value-bet those when checked to, and like I said so far he has owned me, so I'm just not comfortable checking at all when he's probably going to be balancing his river bluffing frequencies pretty well against me, and there are a few upsides to betting.
Imo you are contradicting yourself a bit here. I believe your first statement is correct which is why you probably dont have to worry too much about being bluffed here on the river. Fear of being bluffed is a bad argument for shoving btw.

Imo c/f > c/c > shoving
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02-23-2010 , 03:19 AM
I would be checking turn to induce bets out of the aggressive villain more than betting for value at this point. You have approached a point where you get more value from getting him to bet his hand as bluff/value as opposed to you betting.

As for river I dont really like the value bet. I dont think he looks you up here with a worse two pair often enough. Youll also get snapped by a wrap with 79 in it a lot. I also dont think it serves any function as a bluff. Bluffing people off an ATxx that chops usually isnt worth it as it only gets half the EV of a normal bluff when it succeeds.

I also think c/f > c/c. I dont know what he would bluff other than a busted backdoor heart flush draw he probably doesnt have since you have A in your hand. I dont think he would ever turn a smaller two pair into a bluff. Maybe a busted KQJx wrap? but that seems like a stretch.

Last edited by spino1i; 02-23-2010 at 03:28 AM.
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02-23-2010 , 12:27 PM
I'd shove here everytime.
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02-23-2010 , 01:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HitmanDK
When you jam river he gets to play perfectly against you. You dont give him a chance to bluff. He will call with hands that has you beat and fold everything else. Better to c/c. You lose the same when beat but you will also pick off some bluffs a non-zero percentage of the time.
yeah this, river is too thin vs said player imo.
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02-23-2010 , 03:11 PM
c/c river is transparent, but regardless obv the best play...

All his better showdown (sets) is jammin turn so you are literally goin for thin value on river... so c/c unless he can call u with A6/A8 perhaps :/
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02-23-2010 , 03:24 PM
not really sure why you would try to make a fish fold a set
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02-23-2010 , 03:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ryang
not really sure why you would try to make a fish fold a set
he was leveling.. i hope.
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02-23-2010 , 04:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iggymcfly
Check/fold is your best option against this kind of player. You're never getting a fold from AT, A6 folds the turn, and KQJ will rarely bet since your line looks showdowny and he'll usually have a pair himself for some showdown value anyway.

Against a looser player, I'd definitely shove the river for value though.
i 100% agree with this.
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