hi,

villain is kindy fishy..has lots of sizing tells and (important for that hand) peels flops superlight even when my range is super tight (lol) and also hates folding anything of equity on turn too...that counts for 3bet pots...

Otherwise he is calling super wide oo and does all the weird stuff like bluff repping nothing - vbet to thin and then chk back strong hands on river etc. - u know what i mean ;-)

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
PL Omaha $4(BB) Poker Stars
Hero ($1,152)
($354)

Dealt to Hero A A Q 9

raises to $12, Hero raises to $36, calls $24

FLOP ($72) 3 5 T

Hero bets $42.90, calls $42.90

TURN ($157) 3 5 T J

Hero bets $140, calls $140

RIVER ($437) 3 5 T J 2

Hero has 135$ behind

What u do on river (or any thoughts about betsizing?) Flop id b/f btw so i bet that sizing with my range here....expect to play play lot of turns....

c/c riv as played but i like c/r turn way better than betting, he has plenty of txxx hands in his range that improve slightly (which you are still ahead of ) on turn that he will bet once you check.

He is not blindly aggro only because u chk turn...i think even vs most fish its pretty transparent what ur trying and i think there are more hands in his range that call a second barrel then hands he will bet i think ...so i think not betting turn means losing value vs his range/gives a freecard much more often then induces a bluff imo...

i am not sure if he bluffs river ...he definatly doesnt fold a better hand...same counts for and overpair...not sure what he does with Tx and Jx given price...

Do we expect him to be bluffing wiht so few $ left...what about shipping ourself hoping to get hero call....

Y c/jam turn looks good. Pot is big enough relative to stacks that he has to be decently likely to pot a bunch of the marginal stuff you say he'll peel turns with. Riv looks like a c/c given how wide you say his peeling ranges are and the fact that I assume he'll play his straight draws on flop aggressively some amount of the time, you block one of the draws that got there, and you would think he's jamming turn with any 2pr+.

Dont like shipping riv. Disagree that turn chk is transparent, but even if he is suspicious, he has <2x pot on turn, if he's sitting there with any kind of half decent pair plus fd or whatever, I'd think he just jams it in.

i agree c/r turn is best play in theorie but i don´t see it work often enough to make it better then betting...as i said...i think its pretty transparent once we chk turn - i expect to see a lot of chkbacks given what i remember w/o looking into database.

I just don´t feel people step that turn a lot (much better for us then for him etc.)...

checking the turn, period, is the best play. even if villain checks turn back you're still in a more manageable spot otr, and if u bet turn and he ships over you're in trouble. so why not get it in on turn vs a wider range or play a smaller pot otr

K i got ur opinion now loud ´n clear!

Checking turn is really bad IMO.

looking at your stack OTR, I think that shoving is slightly better than c/c.

edit: I b/c OTT but c/r is also good if he's stabbing enough.

Yes, definitely.

I think river is pretty close between c/c and bet. I rarely see a light calldown on the river from a random, but I also rarely see a bluff.

I don´t know if he calls river with just Tx or Jx (QQ or KK for sure i think)..at least i know he peels really wide on turn (he peeled with 2397 no fd) so he should get to river with lots of these combos....

I agree with the unliklyhood of getting bluffed vs a check given stacksize...but on other side he´s giving himself a good price on a bluff but i am not sure if that makes checking river more attractive...so i am leaning to bet...close for sure ...maybe not even +ev but can´t be to bad and i doubt c/c is better....

surely you have to discount a bunch of KK/QQ combos because of the times he jams the turn with them. its also worth noting that vs his actual hand (which even for someone who peels wide has to be towards the bottom of his range) youre a 3-1 favourite on the turn, but you almost cant fail to lose money on the river since the only card hes definitely gonna make a mistake on if you bet is an 8, whereas youre obv gonna lose either way on a 2, sometimes a 3,7,9 etc (although some of these he may chk back if you chk but will never fold if you jam, which is another reason i dislike betting).

So you wanna check turn against this guy when he peels so light on turn and we can get lots of value and send him a freecard? Just wanna make sure i got it...ty

checking only gives him a free card if he checks back. surely you agree that he bets this hand/others with similar equity at least some of the time?