how can anyone answer this yet, no one has looked at the combos yet. His ranges are pretty visible and the hand hinges onlly on what he does with his top end on the flop (Q9/Q7/QQ/99/77/KQJT), we want to know about bet/folding to a shove so we....
1. Propokertools his flop calling range
2. Propokertools his turn raising range as a subset of the hands from step 1
3. The ratio of get it in combos to flop call combos is his shove %, avg equity comes from sim
4. So we just plug in now to find out whether bet is plus EV (easy formula)
5. We take that EV and compare it to c/f (because c/c w/ plan for river is a trash to take against a c/c on the flop.. range is too wide to make a profitable river plan vs. the boss man) and bet/get it in.
That will tell you if bet/fold is profitable. IF your question is the most plus EV line you follow the steps below to solve a hand like this. This particular hand hinges almost entirely on whether he flats hands like dry overpair, wrap, sets, and particularly influential is what he does with two pair + draw or backdoors (seems like call).
5. Propokertools his turn calling range to a lead as a subset of his flop calling combos excluding his shoving combos. Another fairly easy range to approximate.
6. Run your hand vs. his turn calling range on equity distribution graph for riv.
7. Plug X and Y coordinate matching pot odds into avg equity equation (another simple one if you know the pieces) --- just the area under the curve and left of the intersection of our required equity + frequency.
8. Now propokertools his turn folding range as a subset of his flop calling range, pretty easy stuff with good players because you just assume they are playing perfectly to the pot odds.
9. Then we add up the parts of the alternative line bet/get it in.
EV_betcallturn = Fold + Call + Shove payoffs where each part = EQline*Pot*frequency
X = flop call combos
Y = turn fold to bet combos = X-R -Z
Z= get it in on turn combos = X-R-Y
R = Call turn combos = X-Y-Z
Get in eq = A = from range vs. hand sim
Avg eq turn flat = B = from dist graph
EV_betcallturn: 1*22k*(Y/X) + A*102k*(Z/X) + B*32k*(R/X)
The flat turn portion is not particularly useful to the total calc because it assumes no river action or perfect river action so we both realize our equity, in realty I suspect vs Antonio it will be significantly lower since we are OOP.. in these spots you determine if this is a player you can overcome an equity deficit against because of specific river leaks, imbalances.
You'd then compare that the math from the first part for bet/fold, and check/call certain rivs... I won't map those out those because just from doing these a lot I know your answer is bet/fold or bet/get it in... and I can't say much about the riv without getting a couple additional assumptions from you on his PF 3-bets and flop trap tendencies.
If I were doing this for a student:
http://propokertools.com/simulations...3Ahh&s=generic
Those are the relevant hands I'd use to build those ranges (not the ranges themselves) + an measure of weak peeling hands like tp + gutter, tp no draw, etc that we know he'd see a flop with. The turn is your only other assumption.. whether he bets or checks through a dry 8T or a 79**, or Q*** unimproved.
We can solve most hands based on just a couple assumptions now with the new tools and calcs, the mastery is building the ranges and making sharp assumptions/reads. If we don't include the frequencies and payoffs in our analysis, its just a bunch of dooods guessing and I don't want to build my poker knowledge of what everyone else is doing/would do, when I know no attention is being paid to those dimensions of the hand.
Someone check the steps if you've got the time, I didn't have a chance to review, but I think I have everything in there correctly.
As played, I suspect its a bet/call on the turn, and a bet/fold when the turn is a blank. The decision criteria here is likely what he does with all those weak hands he calls on the flop that improve to showdown value + draw, or draw + draw, or pair + draw.
I am assuming he shoves many of these because you have enough behind to fold, and he set up his line to allow your turn bet range to be as wide as possible making it a profitable place for him to c/r you as a semi-bluff. I think you see dry draw + fl dr, and showdown value (AA, KK, Qxxx) + fl dr picked up on turn here the vast majority of time like others are saying, and obviously you'll be slightly ahead of those combos but significantly buried by the other types of hands he can have....but you can't turn that into a decision without adding in the frequencies + payoffs we know.
If your assumption is he bets out most sets, wraps, + two pair + draw on flop (or c/r's) then we have a very clear, bet/call on the turn because he doesn't have a top end in his turn shove range then, and perceives us to be fairly wide (last position firing in a checked around raised pot) so this hand you have will be significantly ahead of the range he is preparing for you to have (just means you shouldn't be betting the turn weak in this spot, let's stop leveling here). If not, just off estimatations its probably a close bet/fold.
Anyways, do this a few times with the most common situation and players and it will become much clearer when the spot reoccurs. Next you'll just need to make an assumption about the decision criteria (his flop betting range), ballpark the pot and avg eq, and the solution will follow... Start thinking this way and most hands are done by the time the flop comes becuase we've got a pre- reconfigured plan for all boards and actions going forward... Less important for good thinkers, very important for anyone grinding lots of tables to reduce the mental hoops you have to jump through between decisions.
Cliffs: OP you wanna read this, everyone else, tl;dr probably
Two Plus Two
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