Ok dude then you only disagree with me 95%

And imo your dad is the real Isildur1.

no comment

I apologize, might have misunderstood the original post. I also agree about being biased; but I still feel a solid player will have a good feel of the hand, but that of course is only in consideration of an overall optimal style of play and not necessarily of your particular frequencies. For example, how often are you checking T9 or AAhxh, sets here? Seems like your check is what it is a lot, air/mediocre hands/overpairs a large % of the time. So I was only trying to intimate that by checking and him betting we are asking for a lot of advantageous things to occur, as opposed to say just betting. But clearly you are in the best position to determine if he fires this turn enough with air or draws that it is more profitable to c/r than it is to bet.

This may sound crazy to some, But playing that deep does the value of aces not decline at all. I know it is very strong preflop but on that flop, with you not holding any type of redraw except to a set. Does that not in itself trigger to slow down on flop instantly, and snap fold turn when big barrel comes off on turn pretty quick.Also sorry did not see the gutshot you picked up on turn but that to the low end and everyone knows how much fun the second nuts are in omaha when the jack peels off. Though I know nothing of your read on the player just saying what I would think on that board with those stacks.

Oh wow, I thought we had a flushdraw. C/f to the potbet then.

Well here is some vacuum analysis I did to get a feel of the odds here.

Obv this is oversimplication but it helps i think:

If I assume he has a ten in his hand and all his either cards are unpaired from 6 to A, then taking away the cards I have in my hand the chance of him having a T9 combo is approx:

1- (21/24* 17/20 * 14/17) = about 38%

So in this situation where he is betting all turns with a ten (and with some straight potential obv) then approximately:

62% of the time I am 66%-33% ahead
38% of the time I am 25%-75% behind

This is not terribly EV but notice that this is for money that goes in after the turn. If I fold it is not ev=0 because I lose my substantial equity in the already existing pot.

Are you kidding!? He floated you w/ complete air, very hard for you to continue on a lot of low turns.

edit: if you mean w.r.t. bet sizing nvm.

waaaay too simplistic. 1) he doesn't always have T***, 2) he doesn't always bet when you check with any T***, 3) etc etc...

Instead, take a look at your equity versus this range based on propokertools, which has become more awesome lately.

board: 4h5hts9d
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
asadqd8h 58.32%
((tB** !*h*h**), (67** ! *h*h**), (kk** ! *h*h**), (*h*h** ! (t***,Ah***)))&35% 41.68%

I am assuming:

-preflop he flats your 3bet with top 35% of hands (in this case, this number isn't making much difference in the equity...)
-on flop he would have raised you with T+fd, nfd, 67+fd, kk+fd (so he doesnt have those)

basically your equity on the turn versus top 35% hands that are (tB**,67**, kk** without hearts),(flush draws without T or Ah) is 58%.

Now you have to build a sub-range of this which he shoves if you bet, from this get your fold equity on turn, and finally calculate your total equity for b/c'ing or b/f'ing. I don't think it's difficult. You can also do something similar for c/r'ing, but that's more complicated because it's much easier to estimate his shoving range once you bet turn, than his betting range once you check turn.

edit: actually i put sets and 2pairs in his turn range by mistake...

oard: 4h5hts9d
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
asadqd8h 63.10%
(((tB** !*h*h**), (67** ! *h*h**), (kk** ! *h*h**), (*h*h** ! (t***,Ah***))) &35%)! (tt**, t5**, t4**) 36.90%

there, your equity is 63% if I remove tt**, t5**,t4** from his turn range.

Yes I know its simplistic, obviously there are many assumptions but I still think this the most likely scenario

Cool, thanks for the numbers. Obv b/f just sucks ginormously, since I will have about 28% equity when he raises which is just slightly above what i need to call. So assuming b/f and b/c is about equal, it means that in the case of him raising I lose my equity in pot (about 3k since he is shoving) + my 10k bet= -13k in this scenario.

If he doesnt have a raising hand (T9/59/49, or fl.draw+many str8 outs), I dont see him finding many folds with the chip stacks as they are giving him a good implied odds with position on the river. Vs. the hands he doesnt shove I think I am about 68-70% favorite so I have my 7k equity in pot + 4k extra equity from turn bet (14/20 -10k bet)= +11k, however the is the river still to play where unless I hit a J or A i am checking since I wont get called by worse, and have to c/call most of his shoves to make bluffing unprofitable. He will get there about 30% of the time and bet 20k, so adjusting a bit for picking up bluffs or getting paid with worse, i think 20%*20k is fair, therefore -4k, total = +7k from this scenario.

The second case of hands are obviously more than the first case, but not ridiculously more so like my intuition felt, betting here kinda sucks.

Can analyze the situation for checking as well (and I might in a later post), but with 63% equity like you say and him betting a good chunk of his range here, seems c/r was the correct decision and c/f sucks unless we give him a very tight betting range (which is not my read of opp.)

I know pairs kinda suck in plo but saying top pair on only a semi-coordinated flop= complete air seems a bit much

Sry yeah i misread, I thought he had no pair and caught a gutter to the wrap. nvm.

holy emoticons

doesnt mather what forum majority always says bet/fold,check/fold and check/call check/fold r damn gonna tilt me for another night.

****ty spot for sure alot of the times but cant just fold eh? damn read results but my first thought was check call and calling most rivers thats not completing but i like the checkraise aswell. as always in tricky spots you gonna have to trust your read alot and not some superdeep calculations.
when reading my first thought was this looks like a spot where villain gonna overplay 5667, AJQ3 with flushdraw and those typ of one pair straightdraw hands and nopair flush and straightdraw. obviously have to fold sometimes aswell but def not all the time, reads ppl!!!!