Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy
I prob fold yes, our turn lead should be an uncapped range, including aaa, qqq, is opponent going to rep blockers against the unlikely holding of 222
I doubt hero has a lot of AA in his range tbh. Not because he didn't 4-bet, but because he min-raised pre. That means he's either (1) min-raising range pre OR (2) splitting range between min and pot.
I would consider the former case of always min-raising to definitely be less +EV than just potting, and if Hero is as competent as he is perceived to be ("TAG solid image"), then villain should be able to eliminate that possibility. (Unless of course, hero is always min-raising, in which case he should work on his game and not be playing $10/25).
So that leaves the latter case, where hero is splitting range between min-raising and pot. In that situation, it's unlikely Hero is putting a lot of AA in that min-raising range which means when he gets 3-bet after min-raising, he has little to no AA.
Therefore, we have a relatively capped range on the turn, with QQQ being our strongest hand.
I expect that if you look at the range vs. range equity distribution heading to the turn, villain will have both a nut and equity advantage. Neither of those should favor leading.
Also, we cannibalize a lot of our checking range by leading strong hands such as QQQ & 222. Additionally, villain has a pretty sweet turn lead blocker raise with any Qx given that we will be lead/folding 222 and QQQ is the strongest possible hand in our range (which he would then block).