SB and I are 10k deep. He plays pretty straight-forward. Has made moves to try to steal pots pre from the blinds when limped. I bluffed him off a flush and showed it. He seemed semi-tilted after that, but not going crazy.
I raise to 50 on button with JJ82dd. SB and BB call. Flop is J57r. Checks to me and I bet 100. SB calls, BB folds. Turn is Ah, giving two hearts on the board. SB checks, I bet 300, and he pots to 1250 without much thought. I....
Call. Folding is way too weak in this 5 handed game, especially after showing him a bluff. Raising only keeps top set and hands with great equity against your hand, such as wrap+fd. Call and evaluate river
If he's as straight forward as you say he is, then you need to reverse engineer the hand. Is SB the type of player to not bloat the pot out of position pre flop with AAxx? Most good players won't bloat the pot pre flop while OOP. To me, AAxx is the only hand that does this on the turn from a straight forward player.
OTOH, is the SB capable of making a move and repping AAxx as a bluff, or is he that straight forward where he would never do this unless he had the nuts? What about AQJx, AJTx, AJ9x, AJxx? Could he do this with 2 pair such as AJ thinking you raised the button light? That's probably the biggest question. And do we really know how tilted he is after you bluffed him? I know it's a lot of questions but this is what needs to be asked when making a decision to fold, call or reraise.
SB has 3b previous hands from the blinds with AA. He has also been more active vs me in hands after my bluff, but nothing severely out of line. 3 betting me in position with only a tiny bit higher frequency and more stabs to win pots vs me on flop or turn when HU. He has very rarely full pot bet and even less full pot raised. I think he would 3bet a lot of AQJx hands pre in that spot, especially since I was button and raised to 50.
So I call and the river is a non-heart 8. He doesn't think long at all, maybe 10 seconds, and bets 2k.
So he 3bets his AA and you think he would 3bet AQJx considering your min raise PF? Now I'm really leaning toward AJxx. I'd call the river. His line on the turn would be very strange if he was holding something like 9876, 9864, or 986x. If it was me and I flopped a wrap on a board like that, I'd probably check raise the flop not the turn. Raising the turn when an Ace falls is a really weird line. Why would he do this?
the river completes a high% of his semibluff range he had ott. if u feel he's a straightforward player it takes a lot of convincing to find a high% of him airballing here imho. he probably has the river nuts.
I've been thinking about this hand, I agree in hindsight that the river shouldn't be a call. Can I raise turn there with a CIB type of bet, to somewhere like 2200-2500 and fold to a 4bet? I am pretty certain he is the type of player that his 4bet range in that spot would be AAA 100% of the time.
