10/20 PLO 6 Max - Bovada

Hero $1900
Villain in SB $3200

Hero: 7733

Hero UTG+1 Raise to $70
3 Callers

POT: $300

Flop k72

SB check, Hero Check, CO check, button check

Turn 9

SB bets $200, Hero Raises to $810

Fold, Fold, SB Calls

River: J

SB checks to Hero with ~1k behind

What's your play?

sheep it

I would put him on some kind of 2 pair hand with nut clubs, or an AK hand with nut clubs, or a gutshot hand with nut clubs on the turn, in which case I think he passes to your river shove, as on the turn when he calls your raise he has to put you on a set or a wrap given your raise strength and he's losing to both of these on the Jh river, so as played I would be inclined to check call the river to bluff catch a missed flush draw.

Of course it's possible that 8T is part of his hand, but at least by checking you can maybe still pass if you pick
something up by way of a timing tell of his bet, or based on how he has value bet (or bluffed) in previous river situations.

The argument for shoving is that shoving would be a blocker bet to prevent yourself from being bluffed off, and I guess it also has an element of range merging where maybe you get called by worse, although I can't see too many worse hands that will call you unless you think he can call you down with K9, or with a very unlikely 22 in his hand.

Another argument for you shoving the river is that you've under repped your hand by checking the flop, but I'm still not so sure that you will be called by 2 pair or worse, unless he puts you on a stone cold bluff.

I think it is an awkward spot and to an extent is is very opponent dependant and influenced by the flow of the session you are playing. e.g. if you have been shoving missed draws and caught doing so then clearly K9 has more chance of calling your shove but if it's the other way around and the villain has been bluffing a lot on later streets then a check call is clearly the better play.

Btw I don't like the open at all with your double suited 7733 as I think it's a pretty bad hand in almost any position and even more so from early position. It is a better hand if short handed where there is more of a meta game going on perhaps, but it's hard to justify getting excited about it pre in 6 max unless it's a BTN raise open, and even then I am only very occasionally BTN opening with it, purely for a little bit of balancing of my opening range.

Look at it this way, even with a great board run out to the turn and even a fairly decent river for you, it's hard to know where you are, and throughout the hand your redraw potential is almost zero, excluding hitting quads!

go back to russia

Yeah, I was reading the OP when I was tired, and clearly didn't read it properly, so got the betting sequence all mixed up. So sorry for an irrelevant answer. He could still be leading with NFD and some kind of Gutshot or TP as a back up but I would more likely check call with that hand if I was the villain rather than lead with it, or sometimes CR dependent on the action and on all of the other players' stack sizes.

So as in post #2 we should likely shove as we've under-repped our hand a little on the flop

I stand by the 7733DS being non playable UTG+1.

P.S. *This* isn't how I play............... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gW1YOluDM3M

To complete my answer..........

So as in post #2 we should likely shove as we've under-repped our hand a little on the flop. There is still the issue over what kind of worse hands will call us when the river completes an obvious straight draw. It is probably quite marginal on the river whether to check behind or to shove.

You would think that if the villain has made his hand that he would have led the river on the basis that he knows we may be putting him on a flush draw and therefore call him down with a set. Equally if he is on a flush draw and the flush completes on the river then I'd expect him to also lead to get paid sometimes by a smaller flush.

In my experience it is more profitable if you are the villain to lead the river when you make your hand on the river, so in a vacuum, this means that his check is more likely to be a sign of weakness than of a trap.

But to get an exact answer of the correct decision on the river you would have to calculate the average amount of times you get called by worse, minus the average number of times the villain is check trapping you and see if the answer is a positive number. It is probably quite close.

In my experience the check trap move on the end is not very common at all.

(I am guessing from the fact that this is a WWYD that the OP shoved and the villain was check trapping with the straight, or check called with something weird like 99xx)

Who knew Tony G was a politician now and representing lituania at the european parlement?

He is also a surprisingly very tall man when you see him IRL. When I saw him sitting at the table on TV shows I had the impression that he was a shortish or average height man.

(the height thing makes sense now because of his Lithuanian basketball links)

Thanks for the feedback.

He had 101098 clubs

Something I wish I would have added to initial post is that he snap checked.

Given the other hands he had seen me play that he would call off with a good 2 pair

I had a v hard time seeing him check as I assume he thinks I'm calling river (less missed draw).

I think it was more of a "thankgodIhitit"...reflex check that I misread as him holding 2pair/set/combo that missed, hoping to get to showdown.

Snap check is a slight tell of strength in both live and on line games in my experience. I've even found myself doing this in similar spots where I've hit on the river. And I've found that the villain virtually never bets when I snap check like this. So now I give it a dwell and then bet and have found that I get called a lot as the dwell is perceived by my opponent as me calculating how I can win this pot when I've missed.

As I said I think it was a mistake for the villain to check, even though you did then bet.

Because the maths has to be really close between the number of times the villain is trap checking and the number of times that he calls you with worse when you bet then maybe the way to look at it is that checking behind can only be a tiny +EV if any, so therefore check behind in this spot purely to lower variance.

Great open. Great flop check. Great. Hand is great.

It should have read in previous post......... then maybe the way to look at it is that not checking behind can only be a tiny +EV if any, so therefore check behind in this spot purely to lower variance.

I would be interested in iquitafter100k's reasoning for saying that 7733ds is a great open. In my view it is
definitely -EV in a deep stacked game.

he was trolling

Check it back.. He won't ever call with worse... Even though he should never be checking and straights he might do it in some odd times.. However point is you're never getting called by KJ or K9 so no point. Let's see what hand he called our PSR with.

bet flop check river - it's not even close