Oh and I would estimate his range heavily weighted to 44xx so you have 4 outs about 50% of the time, chopping with AJxx with better backdoor equity 25% and pure draws 25% leaving you with a complex calculation to do on the fly.
But half his range is sets so you have 4 outs half the time and almost never are an eq fave, and all that happened before you potted the worst card in the deck
Thought this spot waa interesting enough to do a range analysis but first...the general read of 2 hands and appearances is lol. No one is EVER calling the flop bet with a hand as weak as AKxx. The board is blocking straights. There are 2 3- wraps aboard and no flush draws. You literally have 0 hands to charge ott
So breaking it down by flop action and hand combos we have about 55% to 44xx and JJxx
20% 3wraps with turned flush draws
25% AJxxx
Now here is the problem:
You are on a negative freeroll vs AJ hands because you dont block the flush and there are partial blocks on the 9s, QT and 7T still win. So your actual equity is closer to 23%
ok, but if you look at the GTO of this hand you're in terrible terrible shape...you are absolutely crushed by his value range and only flipping with his bluff range
ok, but if you look at the GTO of this hand you're in terrible terrible shape...you are absolutely crushed by his value range and only flipping with his bluff range
