-Flop: Bet full pot the first time around. We are OOP, but the it is 7 handed, the board is wettish, and the villains are bad.
-Turn:
Looks really close.
If we successfully iso-raise,
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
5d 6h 8h Jd | 29.53% | 140,196 | 192 |
9T | 70.47% | 334,652 | 192 |
So, this is a bad plan, as we get our money in bad (500/1130) = 44%
If we're sure the two players behind fold:
We can't get very much value if a 5 8 or J appears; at best, slightly +EV
May or may not get value if a heart appears. medium +EV
(there's also a ~3% chance he has bigger hearts) = --EV
gain a bit of bluff FE if a 7 appears. ++EV
Overall, +EV.
But what of the players behind:
If we call and someone shoves behind with 9T,
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
5d 6h 8h Jd | 27.42% | 164,256 | 508 |
9T | 36.28% | 24,315 | 386,702 |
9T | 36.30% | 24,445 | 386,758 |
We have 500/1630 = 30.6%, so we're -3% EV
If there's 1 overcaller (likely hearts + GS or 2pair)
Our hearts are no good, but we're now getting 3-1 on our 8-outer. We now have enough implied odds to be profitable, I think, as we can make a higher FH, and have a straight flush draw.
If there's 2 overcallers, or 1 overcaller plus 1 shover:
We're getting it in pretty good.
Overall, I like a call.