New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings) - Page 426 - Single-Team Season Threads -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

I mean the fact is it would be almost impossible to win a SB tying up like $35m into QB, so either they need to move on from Brady after this year, or franchise Jimmy G & move on from him at lesser value than they could have gotten this year.

What we don't know yet is if they think Jimmy G is good enough to move on from Brady if Brady keeps playing like he did this past year.

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04-28-2017 , 12:25 PM

#10627

Jbrochu

banned

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 16,054

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMurder3

I'm not sure what the plan is, but I'll just trust for now.

+1

Patriots success has turned me into Goodie at this point.

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04-28-2017 , 12:41 PM

#10628

heh

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Preordering hats already

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04-28-2017 , 01:25 PM

#10629

Kneel B4 Zod

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Quote:

Originally Posted by JMurder3

I mean the fact is it would be almost impossible to win a SB tying up like $35m into QB, so either they need to move on from Brady after this year, or franchise Jimmy G & move on from him at lesser value than they could have gotten this year.

bolded may* be true, but they may be thinking about this in terms of Super Bowl EV over the next 10 years. what does Super Bowl EV look like with or without Jimmy from 2019 - 2029? then compare that to the hit in EV you get from double paying QB's for a couple years.

that may be what they are thinking.

*given Pats have $20m in cap space currently, I think they could have largely duplicated last years roster and come close to having $30m free (and obviously last years roster was good enough to win)

Last edited by Kneel B4 Zod; 04-28-2017 at 01:30 PM.

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04-28-2017 , 01:28 PM

#10630

JMurder3

not god, probably jebus

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 53,649

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod

that may* be true, but they may be thinking about this in terms of Super Bowl EV over the next 10 years. what does Super Bowl EV look like with or without Jimmy from 2019 - 2029? then compare that to the hit in EV you get from double paying QB's for a couple years.

that may be what they are thinking.

*they probably could have largely duplicated last years roster and stayed under the cap by a massive amount last year, and obviously last years roster was good enough

Well, if the plan is to lower equity for a couple years, but raise it for 10, you drop Brady, right?

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04-28-2017 , 01:33 PM

#10631

Kneel B4 Zod

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Quote:

Originally Posted by JMurder3

Well, if the plan is to lower equity for a couple years, but raise it for 10, you drop Brady, right?

maybe, yeah. but even if you think Jimmy is now equal to Brady, your SB EV is a lot higher with both of them on the roster, so...not sure. they've loaded up the roster to the point where even if Brady goes down they are a legit SB threat. that's pretty unique.

edit: you are still probably better off paying just one QB but the insurance factor is real. hard to say though bc most teams don't find themselves in this position

Last edited by Kneel B4 Zod; 04-28-2017 at 01:39 PM.

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04-28-2017 , 01:39 PM

#10632

JMurder3

not god, probably jebus

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 53,649

Brady has a cap hit of $22m in 2018, with $14m dead if they drop him. In 2019 it's also $22m with $7m dead.

So yeah, getting rid of him in 2018 would only free up $8m... but that's still $8m they could use to make the rest of the team better.

I guess maybe they could plan for a transition in 2019...

I don't think there's any scenario where they can both be on the roster in 2019.

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04-28-2017 , 01:41 PM

#10633

Kneel B4 Zod

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Quote:

Originally Posted by JMurder3

I don't think there's any scenario where they can both be on the roster in 2019.

probably not, but Brady being great 3 full seasons from now would be crazy

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04-28-2017 , 04:57 PM

#10634

Kneel B4 Zod

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Quote:

@AdamSchefter 3h3 hours ago
Browns inquired last night about trading for Patriots' QB Jimmy Garappolo and were told, once again, NE not interested, per sources.

if they are not even entertaining offers, he is here for the long term, imo

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04-28-2017 , 05:04 PM

#10635

JMurder3

not god, probably jebus

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 53,649

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod

if they are not even entertaining offers, he is here for the long term, imo

The current rumors are that the Pats absolutely do have a price, the Browns just haven't met it...yet.

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04-28-2017 , 05:14 PM

#10636

Kneel B4 Zod

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Quote:

Originally Posted by JMurder3

The current rumors are that the Pats absolutely do have a price, the Browns just haven't met it...yet.

yeah, I suppose there is always a price. Would they trade Brady for 6 1st rounders? sure!

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04-28-2017 , 07:16 PM

#10637

Prawney

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Dont know if it happened to anyone else but yesterday when Cleveland were on the clock with pick #12 and it flashed on the screen "Cleveland Trade the Pick", for a split second until Texans popped up i thought it was gonna be a jimmy g trade

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04-28-2017 , 09:24 PM

#10638

Dynasty

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The Browns drafted QB DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame) with the #52 pick. So, the Jimmy G trade options seem dead.

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04-28-2017 , 10:06 PM

#10639

Jbrochu

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It's truly amazing how often the Pats do something totally different than I expect.

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04-29-2017 , 09:45 AM

#10640

electricladylnd

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Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 5,550

IMO if BB thought JG was that good and the heir apparent, there wouldn't be any trade rumors at all.

I do think their Superbowl equity is better with JG as the back up incase a 40 year old Brady gets hurt for a stretch of games. That is worth more than a couple 2nds or maybe a 1st and 2nd.

I don't think BB is coaching the next NE QB for very long.

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04-29-2017 , 12:09 PM

#10641

Kurn, son of Mogh

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Heard this wild speculation yesterday (and, no, I don't believe it for a moment):

Despite what Brady has been saying in public, privately, he's already told Kraft and Belichick that this coming season will be his last.

Thus, no way they trade Jimmy G no matter how high they are on Brissett.

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04-29-2017 , 01:20 PM

#10642

Kneel B4 Zod

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A lot of the "trade rumors" have just been shefter reporting "he's not being traded"

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04-30-2017 , 05:57 PM

#10643

youtalkfunny

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Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 21,758

Quote:

Originally Posted by Prawney

I hope im wrong but i have a feeling in like 10 months or so we will be complaining about not trading Jimmy G today

I'm quite certain that in 10 months, you'll be complaining about something.

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05-01-2017 , 12:21 AM

#10644

feel wrath

The Situation

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Quote:

Originally Posted by electricladylnd

I agree with all of this.

imo, JG not being traded only means that his 2017 insurance value as backup who can keep them winning on a loaded SB roster is higher than anything they were offered.

BB is in 'win now' mode, hence so many trades of picks in a loaded draft for veteran players who can be trusted to make more of an impact in yr 1.

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05-01-2017 , 12:24 AM

#10645

feel wrath

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Quote:

Originally Posted by JMurder3

how big a cap saving would it be for them to trade him post 2017?

trading him would be gangster on BB's part but there's a non zero chance he'd do it

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05-01-2017 , 01:20 AM

#10646

JMurder3

not god, probably jebus

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 53,649

Quote:

Originally Posted by feel wrath

how big a cap saving would it be for them to trade him post 2017?

trading him would be gangster on BB's part but there's a non zero chance he'd do it

That's that $8m in that post I believe. $14m dead next off-season, $7m the year after.

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05-01-2017 , 01:26 PM

#10647

Kneel B4 Zod

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Quote:

Originally Posted by feel wrath

imo, JG not being traded only means that his 2017 insurance value as backup who can keep them winning on a loaded SB roster is higher than anything they were offered.

the insurance factor is real, and as I said above the "wait and see" value of getting an extra year to see if Brady starts his decline is also real. definitely could be those 2 things.

Quote:

Originally Posted by feel wrath

BB is in 'win now' mode, hence so many trades of picks in a loaded draft for veteran players who can be trusted to make more of an impact in yr 1.

don't agree with this though. if they were in "win now" I don't think they get as cute in the Hightower negotiations nor do they leave themselves with $20m in cap space (they could have easily picked up another big name FA or kept Logan Ryan, etc)