He doesn't have more TDs, but he's still a beast.

damn, you're right, he's not a rookie and i was combining stats for 2 years. Both are beasts, I agree.

regression!

its why using the betting market is probably more important than advanced statistics....mediocre teams can string together weeks of good play and look a lot better than they are....it seems to happy every year....its also why despite losing to them, if NE went into NYG they would be favored.

somewhat misleading though, as NE will always give up a high ypp due to the defensive philosophy they employ, avoid huge plays in lieu of allowing more 5-15 yard stuff and forcing opposing team to run lots of plays and not make a mistake. i have been considering doing some research into this actually, seeing if there are coordinators/HC's who have a consistent track record of allowing an unusually high YPP in relation to points allowed. could be that statistical analysis of football hasn't reached the point yet to identify what an optimal defensive strategy actually is. perhaps finding players who defend over the top well (avoid big plays) and have really good instincts (defending the end zone on 1st and goal) are really undervalued as opposed to pure defensive studs like suh/revis etc...not to say any coach wouldnt love those guys ofc.

as usual just free flowing some thoughts, dont have data to back this up.

also only one of the turnovers was a fumble recovery which is a lot luck based than an INT.

which of course isn't to say the patriots are a lot better team than NY....just that i dont think last weeks game was really all that close.

Sublime here is an old article which talks about how BB has consistently outperformed his efficiency (largely YPP, I think) stats. Burke's explanation/hypothesis is pretty LOL- "it must be due to cheating!!!" ie "it couldn't possibly be that my efficiency stats could sometimes not be perfectly correlated to winning"


related SOSH thread

I got an email that season from a friend of mine who runs a Vegas sportsbook. He was at his wit's end. "We can't make the number high enough, they still lay it...the sharps won't take the other side...we can never get a backdoor cover...the Boston Police Department should thank them for putting bookies out of business all over Massachusetts..."

yeah that article from BB is clearly not his finest work, and if one were to only read that would probably assume he was kind of donkish...the comments section is decent.

Great stuff sublime.

That sosh thread started out awesome. Then the pats started losing games because the offense totally disappeared and all of a sudden it was "this is the worst defense ever!"

I think we had the AFC east locked up anyways but Tebow time sure helped out last night as well. I think the Jets might be done. Like, wait another five years to rebuild type of done.

meh, Jets losing last night is lol but they really should/could have easily won. their YPP was better, total yardage a lot better, and gave up a pick 6.

I still think they finish with 9 or 10 wins, likely out of the playoffs, but I don't know you would think they are done for the next 5 years. why would they project any worse next year?

they should definitely be good enough to be in the mix, and if they find a QB will be a real threat

The reason I say that is they could very easily be 3-7 right now. VERY easily. And I just don't see them moving away from Sanchez anytime soon. To be honest, stats wise, this has been his best year. I just don't see them being anything but a fringe playoff team for the next few years and will then need to rebuild.

You don't? It seems like rex is pretty fed up with sanchez right now.

If Rex won't give up on McNight because he spent a 2 on him, he'll never give up on Sanchez.

BTW, the Jets' D gave up 3 points in 59+ mins last night. Today, I hear them taking the heat for the loss. For some reason, i thought of you guys.

Gave up 10 points all night, on the road, at mile-high altitude (I still can't believe how under-appreciated THAT is), but they couldn't make the stop when it counted, right, Toro?

McKnight is a very good returner despite his occasional fumbles. He has breakaway ability, and I think he can be better than Greene.

The defense getting Tebow-ed is getting way too much heat instead of the absolute ineptitude of the current state of the Jets offense. Two missed field goals, and their only TD came from a guard picking up a goal-line fumble from a 3rd-string back after a short field drive off a turnover. The Jets offense is absolutely awful right now and it's killing them.

YTF you lost me at Tina Cervasio.

Hey, that's cool, stick with your cookie-cutter blonds. Only means more "saucy" girls for me!

I'll always have my Kathryn Tappen Bobble-head. I heard Toucher and Rich mentioned Daphne Rosen as a possible replacement. That I would like to see.

Wow, line is -17 in Vegas now, Wynn briefly had -17.5.

If we dismantle KC and PHL next week (we're only -4 in PHL???), we might see that -20 vs IND yet!

Philly, without Mike Vick and Jeremy Maclin, closed around +5.5 @ the 6-3 NYG. and dominated. they are much better than joe 6 pack thinks

DOMINATED??? What game did you watch?

KC 3
NE 34

THAT is "dominated".

PHL 17
NYG 10

"dominated"???

(JFC, Belichick only halfway to Shula's win total???)

Just dropping in to complain about how much our defense sucks!

Well not so surprising, Shula was a head coach for 33 years to BB's 17.

and d looked decent would love to be wrong come playoff time, will bow to goodie et al if I am

Does Ocho get cut this week? When Branch wet down for a part of the game, that was an opportunity but I'm not sure if he even got any snaps. Was he on the field at all?

Probably no need to cut him as it wont save any money and they could just carry him on the 53 man roster for insurance, so I guess as long as he's not a malcontent off field they'll keep him, but it's amazing that they got absolutely nothing from this guy.

Gronk is the best TE in the NFL. There, I said it.