7/26: Lost Red Sox. -$450

7/27: Went 1-1. -$195

Updated Record: 110-89, +23.09u (+$5,773.52)
Total risk/reward: $70,104.25/$64,770.24
Avg ML price/gm: -108.24
Total points gained on closing market: +3,610
Pts gained/gm: +18.14

7/29 Bets:

Nats -143 (Scherzer/Samardzija) $357.50 to win $250

Verlander
Fulmer
Zimm
Norris

Norris still with plans to be a star someday. Hope we can get him back this year.

I thought this game would be graded as a cancel based on this precedent that betonline had already set with me:

The same exact thing happened with me with my Cards bet. I made the bet for the next day, a rainout happened the current day, my game got moved to game #2 of the double header the next day. When this happened with my Pirates bet it got cancelled even tho I won. With my Cards bet I lost and they graded it as a loss. So I think I understand this situation. When you win, it's cancelled, but when you lose it counts. So gay. I fought these guys over this through many emails/phone calls over the last couple days. Of course I predictably lost this battle. So long story short, this Cards loss and the line I got will be reflected in my next balance.

7/26: Lost Cards. -$250

Updated Record: 110-90, +22.09u (+$5,523.52)
Total risk/reward: $70,354.25/$65,045.24
Avg ML price/gm: -108.16
Total points gained on closing market: +3,608
Pts gained/gm: +18.04

7/29 Bets:

Nats -143 (Scherzer/Samardzija) $357.50 to win $250

7/31 Bets:

Twins +102 (Milone/Gonzalez) $250 to win $255

That seems really ****ing shady...when you brought up the example of it happening, you winning, and them cancelling it, what was their logic behind it, besides "hey, were flat out robbing you, sorry."

They said because my bet was moved to game #2 of the double header it didn't count, which afaik goes against all industry standard. That standard is pretty simple. Assuming you pick the pitchers of the game, as I always do, if those pitchers both throw the first pitch, you get the win or loss based on the result (assuming the game goes the requisite number of innings for ML bets obv). I fought their weird ruling hard too and lost (regarding the Pirates bet from a month and a half ago), but I figured as long as they are consistent I wont mind this peculiar logic. But unfortunately they weren't.

So to sum up. I made both bets like 30 hours before the game was set to happen, for both bets I picked the pitchers who played in the game. In both cases a rainout happened the day before my game. In both cases, a double header was created for the next day, and in both cases my bet was slated for game #2 of the double header. IOW, both bets are in EXACTLY the same scenario and yet they cancel my win and count my loss. Pretty sick. I was infuriated to say the least.

I was actually tempted to factor this out of the model, but I can't do that. I can't ignore reality no matter how ****ed up it is, and the sad fact is when you deal with shady offshore sites shady stuff is gonna happen, so that needs to be baked in. Basically part of the cost of doing business--and I have to continue to do business with these guys cuz they are the ones that come out with the lines first. Being about to be pound such early opening lines is a large advantage. I estimate that at least half my edge comes from just this. So right now I have attained around a 5% edge. 2.5% comes from just being on this site and pounding lines before virtually everyone on the planet. So as much as I hate these ****ers I have to deal with them.

As an aside, I have had a 5dimes account for years, and have never had a problem with them. In fact a couple times I accidently made the wrong bet, and I called them and they switched it to the right bet EVEN THOUGH they said that's against their normal policy. This is probably a bad comparison tho because I have lost tens of thousands on 5Dimes, so yeah, maybe that's why they never **** with me.

Colin McWho?

This game has 10-8 written all over it. Which would be fine of course but have your Pepto handy.

Oh joy, it's bullpen time.

The fact that this roster has Mark Lowe and Dustin Molleken on it is one hell of an indictment of Al Avila.

Counterpoint, this is the best bullpen they've had in years

Not a high bar to get over

I was beginning to get scared that baseball wasn't too easy anymore. Thank god I was wrong.

when jd bambino returns IT'S ALL OVER

I never took a closer look at WAR, but I have to admit, that it comes pretty close to my own ranking.

Kinsler is in 1st place and he is clearly my MVP too.
Cabrera is 2nd and I can live with that.
Castellanos is 3rd and despite the fact that I still don't like him that much, I have to agree on it.

Upton and Aviles are on the bottom where they long.

I expected to Moya to be ranked a bit higher, but to be fair, his defense over the last few games he was terrible, so it's probably ok too. Overall I would still rank him higher than McCann though, especially since I don't really believe in McCann's 8.9 behind the plate. On the other hand, I don't believe that Upton is a worse outfielder than Moya either. Actually J.D. at -14.1 is a joke. These defensive metrics aren't convincing.

They need a new metric, WAA - Wins Above Aviles. That way everyone can be positive!

I love it. The sabermetric era's version of the Mendoza Line.

7/29: Won Nats. +$250

Updated Record: 111-90, +23.09u (+$5,773.52)
Total risk/reward: $70,711.75/$65,295.24
Avg ML price/gm: -108.30
Total points gained on closing market: +3,620
Pts gained/gm: +18.01

7/30 Bets:

Twins +102 (Milone/Gonzalez) $250 to win $255

7/31 Bets:

Royals +137 (Gee/Harrell) $250 to win $342.50

jfc...

Hell of a game. Both starters were dealing, but JV is a workhorse.

Clutch 9th.

Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Tigazzzzzzz mother****ers

Great game tigs getting hot.

good pitching beats good hitting

Regardless how it went in the end, you can't just let Verlander pitch the 9th in a 1-0 game without having someone ready in the bullpen. K-Rod started to warm up with 2 guys on and 1 out. That's way too late. No other manager in the big leagues would have made such a mistake.

Now why did Ausmus do this? It's this veteran kind of bull****: "I have confidence in you and I show it". Ausmus would probably make a good football coach where trust and confidence matters and the coach is a rolemodel and trusts his veterans and such. It doesn't work like that in baseball. Baseball is skill dominated game where percentages matter.

Tigers should have been sellers last year.

They need to buy today.

C
SP
RP


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