McCannon and Avila, not graceful. Outs recorded however.

Always an ominous sign when the model finds that many locks in one day (generally speaking, markets are not that inefficient). Including today I think i've had two days this year where I had 6 bets or more going, and it hasn't ended well either time.

Additional TB -135 bet, $337.50 to win $250.

5/20: Went 3-3. -$620 (Cubs cancelled)

Updated Record: 68-62, +17.22u (+$4,304.50)
Total points gained on closing market: +2,478
Pts/gm: +19.06

5/21 Bets:

Rays -138 (Archer/Sabathia) $687.50 to win $500
Blue Jays +128 (Estrada/Miley) $250 to win $320
Indians +106 (Salazar/Musgrove) $500 to win $530

5/22 Bets:

Twins +133 (Gibson/Jimenez) $250 to win $332.50

Random thought that I'm too lazy to care about because it ain't my money:

You should probably check to see if there are a few certain pitchers you "always" find yourself betting for or against; if so your model is probably mis-evaluating that guy (or the rest of the world is consistently doing so, but I know where to bet)

Unless it's Pelfrey, you can bet against him every time and it won't be wrong

Was at the game today. Holy **** did Napoli crush that ball. Might be the longest home run I've ever seen in person.

JD is gonna bolt from this dumpster fire so fast after the season ends. I can't really blame him either.

There are definitely times I handicap pitchers wrongly, and usually the market harshly let's me know, and then I try to figure out what the market is trying to say about a pitcher's projected ERA and adjust my projections accordingly to protect myself from constantly making the same mistake. It certainly annoys me when I handicap the same pitcher wrong twice in a row.

That said, obviously, there is a human touch to all this, and I do have my biases as to which pitchers I love to fade (Pelfrey & Weaver, are the two obvious ones). If my model even remotely suggests to fade them, I'm on it.

Incidentally, this past weekend my model nailed the Pelfrey/Gallardo matchup, telling me that the market is fair priced and there's no money to be made fading Pelfrey on this one. It made intuitive sense too. Gallardo sux and no Cano in the lineup. That said, it was hard NOT to pull the trigger and fade Pelfrey just cuz. Luckily my only sin was putting Mariners in a parlay and of course White Sox pounded.

5/21: Went 2-1. +$162.50

Updated Record: 70-63, +17.87u (+$4,467)
Total points gained on closing market: +2,519
Pts/gm: +18.94

5/22 Bets:

Twins +133 (Gibson/Jimenez) $250 to win $332.50

5/23 Bets:

Red Sox -185 (Porcello/Cashner) $925 to win $500
Royals +137 (Duffy/Montgomery) $250 to win $342.50
Padres +157 (Chacin/Harvey) $250 to win $392.50

stop betting against the tigers = profit

Good news is the Tigers will not be no-hit today

More on Royals +141, $250 to win $352.50

5/22: Won Twins. +$332.50

Updated Record: 71-63, +19.20u (+$4,799.50)
Total points gained on closing market: +2,532
Pts/gm: +18.90

5/23 Bets:

Red Sox -185 (Porcello/Cashner) $925 to win $500
Royals +139 (Duffy/Montgomery) $500 to win $695
Padres +157 (Chacin/Harvey) $250 to win $392.50

5/24 Bets:

Cardinals +160 (Leake/Hill) $250 to win $400
Pirates +142 (Williams/Teheran) $250 to win $355

5 hits in 2 games, 2 errors by Castellanos in 1 game.

How come the batting average of most guys is about 50 points down this season?

going to start calling him E5

Don't leave us in suspense Raxx, tell us it's the absence of roids

Except for JD of course

5/23: Went 2-1. +$945

Updated Record: 73-64, +22.98u (+$5,744.50)
Total points gained on closing market: +2,578
Pts/gm: +18.82

5/24 Bets:

Cardinals +160 (Leake/Hill) $250 to win $400
Pirates +142 (Williams/Teheran) $250 to win $355

5/25 Bets:

Red Sox -185 (Pomeranz/Martinez) $462.50 to win $250
Royals +194 (Almonte/Tanaka) $250 to win $485
Giants +139 (Samardzija/Butler) $250 to win $347.50

When can we officially start selling? Two weeks before they firesale everyone?

Who can we even sell?

5/24: Went 2-0. +$755

Updated Record: 75-64, +26u (+$6,499.50)
Total points gained on closing market: +2,630
Pts/gm: +18.92

5/25 Bets:

Red Sox -185 (Pomeranz/Martinez) $462.50 to win $250
Royals +194 (Almonte/Tanaka) $250 to win $485
Giants +139 (Samardzija/Butler) $250 to win $347.50



Given how much adversity I've had to overcome in my life, it seriously is offensive that baseball is THIS easy.

Is it just me or did last night's win didn't really make you feel better about this team? Four runs on outs and a wild pitch, and our new closer gives up another HR. Smh

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

I just need 84 wins, dont care how they look

Capping MLs is easier. You can ignore certain variables that you couldn't ignore if you tried to cap totals or run lines--like the weather/wind and park effects. I also ignore umps, which could also be way more relevant with totals. Also, in my history of fish betting totals I have done terrible. Plus I find it more enjoyable to simply try to pick winners. I hate watching a game when I have the under.

5/24: Went 2-0. +$755

Updated Record: 75-64, +26u (+$6,499.50)
Total points gained on closing market: +2,630
Pts/gm: +18.92

5/25 Bets:

Red Sox -185 (Pomeranz/Martinez) $462.50 to win $250
Giants +139 (Samardzija/Butler) $250 to win $347.50
Royals cancelled.

5/26 bets:

Nats -248 (Scherzer/Perdomo) $620 to win $250
Phillies -124 (Nola/Arroyo) $620 to win $500
Gm 1 Tigers -103, $257.50 to win $250

Note: I bet Tigers before pitchers were listed. I still don't know who's gonna pitch that game. I'm playing a hunch here that I'm gonna get a good line. This could be dumb.

More 5/26 bets:

Cubs +128 (Arrieta/Wood) $250 to win $320
Twins +122 (Santiago/Archer) $250 to win $305

5/25: Went 1-1. Broke even.

Updated Record: 76-65, +26u (+$6,499.50)
Total points gained on closing market: +2,679
Pts/gm: +19

5/26 bets:

Nats -248 (Scherzer/Perdomo) $620 to win $250
Cubs +129 (Arrieta/Wood) $500 to win $645
Twins +125 (Santiago/Archer) $500 to win $622.50

Note: Philly cancelled, added more on Cubs and Twins.