**sorry for the long post but i would really like advice from people that think deeply like i do for this.**

I can't believe I made it this far but I am now taking it very seriously. It was $300 and 900 started and now there are only 47 people left. The picks are for straight up, not the spread. It started with picking 1 team until week 12 when you now have to pick two each week. You also got a bye week you had to use by week 8.
This is who I have taken so far in order by week:

1.) Green Bay
2.) Carolina
3.) Miami
4.) BYE
5.) Pittsburgh
6.) Tennessee
7.) Cin.
8.) Denver
9.) Dallas
10.) Arizona
11.) New England
12.) Buffalo/N.O.
13.) Oakland/Seattle

Pretty sure I'm taking the Lions. But I cannot decide for the other team between:Colts vs texans, min @ jacksonville, atl @ l.a., or tb vs new orleans.

This is how i'm thinking.

a.) Colts: I honestly feel very comfortable with this pick since Houston has only beaten the colts in their stadium 1 out of 15 games. However, the colts would be a solid pick against the jaguars in week 17. The whole season I strayed away from worrying about the next games, but now that the options are diminishing i feel that there are not going to be more than the minimum amount of games where I feel leverage for. The colts could be playing for the division title week 17 and the jaguars have given up already. I also worry about the short week this week (even though that was barely a game last night).

b.) Minnesota: I think the Jaguars are a horrendous team but that would be the only reason why I pick this game. Minnesota I have hesitation for picking because I saw 75% of the survivor pool get knocked out when the bears beat them in week 8. The vikings are also very very hurt on offense still and the jaguars are not the best but are not the worst on defense, and are at home. Ironically, my original "plan" was to pick the vikings week 17 against the bears, but at home (remmeber i have to pick two teams going forward). Also, if AP does come back, I think he would at least need 1 week to really get back to at least 90% of his production. Therefore I question whether the stock on the vikings is worth holding off for until week 17.

c.) Atlanta: This is obviously out of my choices the game I feel most comfortable with, however I see a lot of value in holding onto them for next week against the 49ers. If I don't hold onto the falcons for week 15, I can't see any better picks for me than the chiefs vs the titans and then choosing between washington vs carolina or baltimore @ philly. If I keep the falcons, then I would use them and more than likely the chiefs- which I feel at least somewhat more comfortable with, because it would be like my picks this past week: pick two very good teams that are both home. I also see value in holding out on the falcons because although I see it very unlikely, I could see the rams pulling out an upset. The falcons lost their best defensive player in the backfield and were already ranked the worst pass defense in the league. Although goff isn't that great, he has scored with kenny britt who won't be covered that well anymore, and that might give gurley more room to finally have a game worth his draft pick. Rams defense obviously isn't bad either. And if the falcons lose, I could see at least half the league if not almost the whole league being knocked out.

d.) Buccaneers:Based on my logic, this seems like the best pick- I just do NOT feel comfortable about this game though whatsoever. I wish I could be convinced somehow because it would make the rest of the season so much easier to save the other 3. Maybe I'm just overthinking drew brees. On paper, it looks like the buccaneers should win. But out of any upset, I would think this one is the most feasible. The bucs spread is only -2.5. However they are on a roll, the saints are the 3rd worst pass defense in the league, and the bucs might have their entire RB depth in this week.


anything could change but here is how i feel it would look like in each scenario (remember i'm def. picking the lions as my other pick:

if i pick colts:

week 15: atlanta vs sf & kc vs ten or bal vs philly
week 16: sd vs cle & washington vs chicago
week 17: minn vs chicago & houston vs tenn or kc @ sd

if i pick vikings: same idea as grid above just switch colts and vikings week 17.

if i pick falcons:

week 15: kc vs ten & bal vs philly
week 16: sd vs cle & washington vs chicago
week 17: minn vs chicago and indy vs jax

if i pick bucs:
week 15: Atlanta vs 49ers & kc vs ten
week 16: sd vs cle & washington vs chicago
week 17: minn vs chicago & indy vs jax

please tell me your thoughts. i know many on here might not think of this as a potentially huge lifechanger but if this were a utopian society and only 3 of us or less won this, i would have a down payment on a house and im getting married in 5 months. thank you so much for reading all of this and you did and i look forward to hearing any new perspective.

-Greg

Its 270.000 dollars in the pot? And many of us dont see this as a lifechanger? (=

Week 14 Detroit + Colts seems like the best way to go to me if you want to play it safe,
Week 15 Atlanta vs SF + Houston vs Jacksonville? (Dont think you mentioned that one, seems way better than Houston vs Tennesse?)
Week 16 SD vs Cleve and Washington vs Chicago
Week 17 would be the toughest tho, Minny vs Chicago and Kansas @ SD

To me that seems like the safest, I doubt any of those lines would be less than -3,5 except possibly KC week 17 depending on what they are playing for.


Personally, if the lines this week stay the same, I would take Detroit + 49ers against the Jets. A slight, slight bigger favourite than Bucs, and you could do what you wanted, save the other teams. I would still change the week 15 matchup tho from the earlier bucs schedule from KC vs TENN to Houston vs Jacksonville.

Problem is, not sure you would be able to sleep if you lost a survivor on 49ers vs Jets. But if you wanna go the risky way with a -2,5 favourite, I prefer them, and my guess is that line could go to -3 during the week. You can wait a bit and see.

But I like to play for the entire pot, if you want to go the safe way... I dont think there are many combinations more ev+ than my first option (7 am here so might have missed something).

Either way, my only suggestion is to basically do what makes it easier to sleep at night and dont listen to anyone else :P
If you like to go on your "feeling" (bucs), go ahead, if you want to play it safe, play it safe, if you want to risk it, risk it. Just do it and dont have any regrets. GL.