What if you are in a sharp pool and everyone thinks this is a good week to fade NE for separation?

well then this is the wrong thread. they do all that kind of stuff in the sports betting forum.

well then NE would be a good pick, wouldn't it?

Your reading comprehension is failing you. Are you aware that there are some survivor pools that use the spread? Someone asked about who they should take when spreads count. Jesus. Every post you have made is some terribad snarky comment. Sorry life has failed you. It gets better.

Sweated out Rams last week.

Thinking Ravens this week.

Is there any research on these things that indicates whether or not it matters that a team is playing a divisional opponent v. a team outside the division?

Hoping everyone in mine thinks this way.

Hilarious did exactly the same (see post above).

I know nothing about survivor so this may not bode well for you.

-hf

I apologize. My first comment was very snarky and I didn't read Dom's post. My second post wasn't intended to be dickish at all.

honestly, I would just pay attention to the spread. oddsmakers factor in all that stuff when they set the lines. The Pats are ~85% to win according to most books, and that's probably as good an estimate as you'll get.

There are two goals in this. To pick the right team, and to last longer than other teams. The Rams were -3.5 last week. If you consistently pick teams that are only 60-65% to win, you will be knocked out very quickly. So I don't like the Rams pick last week.

I don't like the Ravens this week either. There are five other games with better lines (Pats, Eagles, Packers, Bengals, Texans), and according to Yahoo, a whopping 22.8% of users are taking the Ravens. That's the same amount taking the Patriots who are 11-13 point favorites. Even if you hold your ~75% chance of surviving, your equity won't change nearly as much because 1/4 of the people took the same team as you.

btw, i'm speaking like an authority on this because i made a survivor strategy post like 5-6 years ago, and someone much smarter than me came in and said "dude, you're dumb, do it this way" and i liked his way much better. just look at spreads and percentage picked and you can actually mathematically determine the best team to take each week. if it's close, you can factor in stuff like future matchups and whatnot.

Came up with Ravens just from a quick look at the matchups. We have 1 rebuy in our pool and I won it last year (split with 2 others who rebought and I didn't have to)

Just found this thread. Amazing to read after the fact.

I kinda grunched and didn't read this post. This site is pretty awesome. I'm surprised it has NE as such a large favorite even with 25% picking them. I guess I underestimate the difference between 75% to win and 85% to win. I do think I'll probably stay with Philly though, just given the fact they have no good matchups the rest of the year.

That's an incredibly dangerous way to think about this IMO. It's not like you have to use every team.

Only 70 people out of 550 took New England tonight. Hmmm.

This makes sense. Maybe it's a bit of recall bias on my part (in fact it probably is) but intuitively it seems to me that there is a lot more variance between teams that play each other twice a year every year. I lost count of how many times my Dolphins should have beaten the living **** out of the Jets only to lose embarassingly.

Also I was going to take New England but didn't get the pick in on time fml.

Now I have to do some actual work.

Philly it is.

Ugh, should have taken NE. They may not win again this year at this rate.

I feel just fine about having NE available for home games vs. the Dolphins, Steelers, Browns, or Bills.

Every entry this week on Oakland. Not happy about it, but hoping Cleveland pulls the upset.

With Gronk and Amendola hopefully

I'm in a suicide league, but you are allowed to rebuy if you are eliminated on one of the first two weeks (you still can't pick a team you chose prior to elimination).

Because of this rule, does taking the Raiders this week seem reasonable? FWIW, this is a survivor pool of about 140 guys, with a lot of sharps. Having one extra good team might be worth it, because obv I would need a deep run to money. I'm not too worried about rebuying or whatever, so I think it might allow for a somewhat riskier bet.

The other choice is to take the Eagles before they break, which seems like where most of the smart money is this week (at least in my pool).