PGA 2014-15 DFS Thread - Page 3 - Fantasy Sports -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

im just gona find players who have played well and are comfortable with the courses from previous year, who's Hott recently. But I'm sure a lot more to it.

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10-13-2014 , 01:18 PM

#52

CalledDownLight

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Originally Posted by RickRunGood

I did well, but I thought this week was a complete crapshoot. I follow a ton of of the Web.com tour guys and this was a great week for them to make debuts. As guys start to round into shape and we get on courses that have history, it'll be a little easier to predict.

Stick with us if you're new to PGA, it's awesome for DFS.

I am not new to the PGA per se, but nowadays I watch the majors, the Players, and some of the WGC and FedEx Cup and that's about it. I certainly don't follow the 50th-150th best players on a weekly basis and I assume you have to know them pretty well to succeed.

Feels like there are so many stats that are worth using that you could build a pretty damn good model for golf.

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10-13-2014 , 01:35 PM

#53

CohibaBehike

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I believe the single most important factor in PGA is course history. Not even sure how you could put that in a model.

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10-13-2014 , 01:53 PM

#54

CalledDownLight

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Originally Posted by CohibaBehike

I believe the single most important factor in PGA is course history. Not even sure how you could put that in a model.

I've got a few ideas and not sure which would be the best predictor, but probably something like Projected Points = A(WRh-AvgFinish) + ...

A would be some coefficient, WRh is historical world rank going into the event, and AvgFinish is the Average Finish in that event. Thus, that portion of the equation would add projected points to players with finishes above their World Ranking and decrease totals for players below it.

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10-13-2014 , 02:09 PM

#55

CohibaBehike

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That's not bad you would have to use average finish at the course though not event. A bunch of PGA "events" are at a rotating set of courses.

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10-13-2014 , 02:30 PM

#56

LFC_USA

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Originally Posted by CalledDownLight

Would love to get into golf as I transition into old man life. DFS seems like a great way to get into it. Will be following your advice and playing some small stakes here and there. Thanks!

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10-13-2014 , 03:30 PM

#57

CalledDownLight

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Originally Posted by LFC_USA

Would love to get into golf as I transition into old man life. DFS seems like a great way to get into it. Will be following your advice and playing some small stakes here and there. Thanks!

I have no advice. I love golf and have played since I was young, but football and basketball interests plus trying to balance a normal social life and work have left me with little time to even watch golf, much less research it over the past 10 years. In fact, I only started playing DFS in week 1 of the NFL season so I have basically no sample size in this area as a whole. I won't follow it well enough during the football season to do anything, but will probably give it a go once January comes around.

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10-13-2014 , 07:59 PM

#58

ntanygd760

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Originally Posted by CalledDownLight

I would think the best way would be to group all the holes they play and group them into like holes. Similar shot shape required, fairway width hazards ect. It would be a ton of work but if you made the groups just generic enough you could predict the scores you would expect everyone to get on each hole ect. No idea how you factor in people yipping 4 footers but there is a lot of shotlink data out there. All this seems like way too much work but I think it is the direction I would go to make a predictive model for the PGA

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10-14-2014 , 03:28 AM

#59

LiveActionPro

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Might wana stay away from rickie fowler in the upcoming future. Just saw pictures of his new girl. #Dreamkilller

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10-14-2014 , 04:08 PM

#60

beauvanlaanen

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Originally Posted by ntanygd760

How is the action for golf? Any dead money donks or pretty reg infested.

DraftKings puts out some nice GPPs during big major golf weekends like the Masters and the U.S. Open

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10-15-2014 , 07:27 PM

#61

ntanygd760

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It appears the only way to get all the shotlink data is to be involved with academics, can't find anywhere to get the raw data online. Just going to mash a few buttons and pick a fairly random team and sweat them, seems like much less work.

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10-15-2014 , 09:19 PM

#62

losing all2

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Originally Posted by ntanygd760

I've been digging around RG looking for a link I saw a few weeks ago to site you're looking for with no luck. I didn't bookmark because I'm not interested in doing that kind of in depth analysis until I get a better feel for the big picture, and I can't remember the name. I'm sure someone will be along to post it.

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10-15-2014 , 09:29 PM

#63

losing all2

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fanooz I think

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10-15-2014 , 09:44 PM

#64

ntanygd760

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I am probably going to put a few hours in on just like 5 holes to see if the data helps and whether it is worth the effort to go even farther in depth

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10-15-2014 , 10:54 PM

#65

LiveActionPro

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What do you mean shot link data? Apologies for the dumb question.

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10-16-2014 , 12:12 AM

#66

LiveActionPro

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No overlay as they dropped the 15k to 10k. What a bunch of pussies lol

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10-16-2014 , 12:28 AM

#67

ntanygd760

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since about 2004 the tour has a dude with a laser measuring thing walking with every group. every shot, score, puts , distance to pin and a bunch of other stuff is in a huge database.

it is a math nerds wet dream

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10-16-2014 , 11:10 AM

#68

CohibaBehike

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wowwwww. being that monday was columbus day, totally forgot today was thursday and didnt put any pga action in =(

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10-16-2014 , 01:27 PM

#69

LiveActionPro

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Originally Posted by CohibaBehike

wowwwww. being that monday was columbus day, totally forgot today was thursday and didnt put any pga action in =(

Dude!!!!

it's ok you can sweat me, I have russle Knox like in 80% of my line ups, also found norm duke in a lot of them

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10-16-2014 , 09:07 PM

#70

LiveActionPro

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That's great, Thanks Kevin NA!! This is so gross, two weeks in a row I have a guy go down on my best team

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10-16-2014 , 09:26 PM

#71

NxtWrldChamp

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Originally Posted by LiveActionPro

That's great, Thanks Kevin NA!! This is so gross, two weeks in a row I have a guy go down on my best team

This! Blitzed a few of my lineups

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10-16-2014 , 11:47 PM

#72

LiveActionPro

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One with NA, I have knox and martin L, think I still have a shot?

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10-18-2014 , 12:41 AM

#73

LiveActionPro

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Sitting at 250th in the 10k. One team still has all my players so we shall see

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10-18-2014 , 04:36 AM

#74

ntanygd760

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Pro tip: As you are mashing buttons make sure the guy didn't WD before it started. Thanks Graham DeLaet

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10-18-2014 , 04:43 AM

#75

LiveActionPro

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Originally Posted by ntanygd760

Pro tip: As you are mashing buttons make sure the guy didn't WD before it started. Thanks Graham DeLaet

Jason gore and Na both withdrew, know why ? I did the grahm thing a lot last week with Reed lol

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