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NASCAR 2015 DFS Thread NASCAR 2015 DFS Thread

07-11-2015 , 10:58 AM
Just cant fit Harvick into any lineups I like...
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07-11-2015 , 04:58 PM
seems pretty silly when you can't win 100k
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07-11-2015 , 05:37 PM
casey mears and denny hamlin
vs
Kasey kahne and JJ yeley (or some other punt dibennideto?)
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07-11-2015 , 06:18 PM
Use Kahne and Allgaier if that works
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07-11-2015 , 06:26 PM
any particular reason on allgaier? he does fit
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07-11-2015 , 06:50 PM
Should move up a few spots and have the highest finish of anyone in his price range afaict.
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07-11-2015 , 07:37 PM
$253 overlay in the $100k slingshot. Woooo!
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07-11-2015 , 08:26 PM
ended up on
Kyle Busch
Keselowski
Kahne
Newman

and 3 way split between Yeley/Dibenedetto/allgiaer

leading all the laps so far with Busch/Kesel lets hope that keeps working =)
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07-11-2015 , 10:20 PM
Who has two thumbs and didn't have Shrub & Keselowski on the same roster? This guy.
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07-11-2015 , 11:13 PM
Put 4 line ups in, cashed two for 17$ for a 5 profit !! Hotdog!
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07-12-2015 , 06:39 AM
Switched Ky. Busch to Kahne in my main lineup. Mistakes were made. On to the next one!
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07-18-2015 , 11:00 PM
Decided to take the quarter arcade challenge this week. 150 lineups (max entry is 250).

I have no scripts and a lousy internet connection. It took me 4 hours. The biggest BS is once you make all the lineups, you can only enter 50 at a time. All that extra clicking at the end was annoying.

Obv a hara kiri situation if I ship the .25 while skipping the $3. Alas, I have little confidence in my GPP skillz.
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07-19-2015 , 01:37 AM
You better hit a top 3 lol I'm looking at putting in about 80 entries.
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07-19-2015 , 01:50 PM
somehow in 10 place tie for first place in the 100k after 22 laps

lets get this money everybody

nice and down to 5571 a second later

nascar is awesome
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07-19-2015 , 04:00 PM
I don't have Happy and Keselowski on the same roster, lol me. Need one of them to fail.
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07-19-2015 , 04:40 PM
Went from 20th to 58 on the final lap. There are so many duplicate entries, most of them trains. I missed watching most of the race, but an interesting sweat for $37.
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07-26-2015 , 08:53 AM
Can anyone expand on this at all, just saw this release from Draftkings about previous NASCAR scoring this A.M.

"Over the last 5 days, we have been working with our statistics provider, the official NASCAR stats, to dig into some official pass statistics questions posed by some players after the New Hampshire race last week. We have been working hard on getting complete answers to all questions, and are close to reaching a resolution. We expect to complete the effort by early next week.

We want to assure everyone that in the event there were any issues with the passing statistics in that race or any race, DraftKings will make right with players in the event that anyone was impacted negatively. If there was any statistical anomaly in the official passing statistics you can trust that we will recognize it, be fully transparent, and provide fair resolution paths. As soon as we have reached a complete resolution, we will provide a full and detailed update to everyone
."

http://playbook.draftkings.com/news/...ial-statistic/


What drivers, what races, what the actual suspect issue is etc...


Thanks
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07-26-2015 , 10:51 AM
So dug deeper and found out more info. Pretty sure this flawwed scoring stat possibly cost me and others a lot of money in the July 5th Daytona race..

With a combo that went from 4th to 96th on the green white checker. Of the ~91 lineups that jumped ahead, around 60 of them are the same combos, possibly more if they were entered more than once.

The difference happened when the Alex Bowman/Casey Mears lineups catapulted the combo I had, which was actually more unique and should have score more because of Allgeier>Bowman.

The combos that won/jumped were-

Earnhardt Jr/Harvick/Hamlin + Mears (19.1%)/Bowman (3.9%)

My combo-

Earnhardt Jr/harvick/Hamlin + Cassill(2.5%)/Allgeier(7.9%)


Many more people had the combo of Mears/Bowman with Mears owned at 19% than the Cassill/Allgeier combo.

Justin Allgaier received -35 pass differential points, even though had started 21 and finished 18th. Josh Wise started 42nd only finished 31st and yet scored 31pts whereas Allgaier who started 21st and finished 18th only got 23.25

All the Allgeier lineups should have finished higher than all of the Josh Wise/Alex Bowman/Casey Mears combos but didnt because Allgeier even tho racing a great race, somehow landed a -35 pass differential.

This is the difference of many THOUSANDS of dollars, these points seeing as the difference from 1st ($100,000) and 96th ($77) is MASSIVE.


Really hope they do the right thing here. Not sure how it gets done, but this July 5 Daytona race undoubtedly paid some undeserving lineups significant money because of this scoring stat.

Hopefully they make this right, as quite a few lineups when you change Allgeier score (excluding the -35 pass diff yet finishing 18th), relative to his finishing 18th would have all won LOTS more money.

I hope Draftkings makes this right. Somehow but man seems like a herculean effort, and prob easier to just say, sorry and moving forward it wont happen like that again. Quite certain this -35 pass differential to Allgeier when he finished 18th and higher than racers who scored more pts, yet finished behind him, got money they shouldn't have.

Have a feeling this pass diff, in that race cost me and others a massive amount of money. Hope this works out for the best!


Thoughts???



Note-
I understand even if you adjusted every other driver to what should be, this combo would STILL be a top 10 lineup, even if all other drivers pass diff was changed and/or removed. I was shocked it landed down in 96th when all was said and done tbh, blown away. Seeing Allgeier's -35 pass diff, when Wise and the others somehow didn't get such a SIGNIFICANT negative, literally changed everything and makes sense as to why/how that happened now. The Allgeier lineups SHOULD have won (Algiers w/all the right other plugs)...

Last edited by bizzerk; 07-26-2015 at 10:57 AM.
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07-26-2015 , 01:53 PM
So It isn't quite as drastic as that post makes it out to be. The issue that brought the problem to DK's attention was Kyle Busch winning last week and scoring a -44 pass differential when starting like 4th or whatever...I believe I saw on Rotogrinders it was explained why he had a -44 pass differential. Essentially Kyle felt a tire going down and pitted under green and got passed by the entire field, he then proceeded to get the lucky dog to pass the entire field (doesn't count for pass differential) and then another caution came out and the leaders decided to pit and he stayed out and held it from there (the leaders pitting under caution also does not count) These are probably the issues that the other drivers with seemingly incorrect pass differentials probably had.

Now that is the plausible explanation for what is happening, but there are a lot of people reporting that there are a ton of inconsistencies. DK rules make it seem like you cant accumulate negative pass differential on pit road even when pitting on green, which if true would make this explanation incorrect. (though I think it is not being scored the way its explained on the site).

The issue is more that this statistic is seemingly terrible. Its really random and ambiguous. NASCAR and DK give us no way to track it. and to make it all worse the wording on the scoring is also ambiguous and now we are finding potential inconsistencies in the scoring. which I believe is why DK is now being forced to address the issue.

It just seems like something that needs to be more transparent to work and hopefully DK figures that out.

In other news, fading JJ, Harvick and rowdy today...god have mercy on my soul.
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07-30-2015 , 06:05 AM
Late to the party, but I did a fair amount of research and pretty much found that pass differential is entirely random. I don't think the scoring is so ambiguous, but the way it is scored is, if that makes sense.

From what I understand, NASCAR sets up 'loops' around different parts of the track and scores the cars as they pass each one. It seems possible that inconsistencies could arise, but it's scored the same for everyone so there's not much you can do. I do agree that it's a terrible statistic and not really important to the outcome of the race, and the answer is probably to remove it.

Looking at the circumstances, it's definitely possible that this happened to Busch, though.

In other news, there aren't any contests posted for this weekend yet. I have been on vacation and only playing periodically for the last few weeks - has this been the norm?
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07-30-2015 , 08:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cwicemvp12
Late to the party, but I did a fair amount of research and pretty much found that pass differential is entirely random. I don't think the scoring is so ambiguous, but the way it is scored is, if that makes sense.

From what I understand, NASCAR sets up 'loops' around different parts of the track and scores the cars as they pass each one. It seems possible that inconsistencies could arise, but it's scored the same for everyone so there's not much you can do. I do agree that it's a terrible statistic and not really important to the outcome of the race, and the answer is probably to remove it.

Looking at the circumstances, it's definitely possible that this happened to Busch, though.

In other news, there aren't any contests posted for this weekend yet. I have been on vacation and only playing periodically for the last few weeks - has this been the norm?
You dont understand it correctly at all. I am honestly one who, was significantly affected by this in the Daytona race where when the green/white/checker went down was in 4th w/ $100,000 up top. Somehow when Allgeier started that restart in 8th, and finished in 18th after the finish line wrecks, landed a -35 (pass differential) yet was always on the lead lap and finished a solid 18th, after being top 10 on last 3 laps, and never being a lap down the entire race. Allgeier didn't get a -35 'pass differential' its 100% wrong/shady. He was never a lap down the entire race, started 21 finished 18th and never went a lap down the entire race.

Incredibly a driver who started 42nd and only finished 32nd in Josh Wise, scored more points than allgeier and had only a pass diff of '-4' whereas Allgeier, starting higher, never going a lap down and finished a solid 18th, after being in the top 10 the last few laps, gets a -35 undeservingly. Literally that cant happen, you cant just throw in some unfounded, obscure scoring variable, and have it separate hundreds of thousands of dollars undeservingly which is what happened.

Draftkings wont give me anyone to deal with yet, aside from the generic 1st line 'customer support'. It is starting to get annoying now. The acknowledged to me it exists and stated basically, since its such an issue they are 'thoroughly' going through all the previous contests affected, and are not going to post new contests until this is all resolved.

I don't think people understand how significant an issue this is. its not something with the amount of money Draftkings is dealing with in partnership now with NASCAR, that can be or will be brushed under the rug.

cw mod where did you get the idea that just because everyone got nailed with completely erroneous/wrong scores, and after losing out on thousands of dollars that should be o.k and we should all just move along. Obviously you were not negatively affected significantly.

NASCAR is off until this is all worked out, and my read is its being done by NASCAR not necc them. Draftkings im sure would love to just throw up all there contests and collect, but there's obvious some serious internal discussions going on probably between both draftkings and NASCAR.

This isnt some little issue, like some are trying to imply. Please give some honest feedback. I am tilted over this, because all I can get up to this point, is early next week they will have some resolution and now we are late in the week, and still getting generic responses from Drafktings support.
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07-30-2015 , 09:01 AM
Thank you for the wall of text, bizzerk. I did a bit more digging and I think blackburn's point here is spot-on:

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackburn
DK rules make it seem like you cant accumulate negative pass differential on pit road even when pitting on green, which if true would make this explanation incorrect. (though I think it is not being scored the way its explained on the site).
If we look at the loop data from Daytona, and scroll to the bottom, racing-reference explains Pass Differential is accumulated in the following manner:

Quote:
Pass Diff.: Difference between Green Flag Passes and Green Flag Times Passed.
Here is the DK explanation, from the official rules page:

Quote:
Pass Differential = Total number of passes minus times passed

Drivers can only pass or be passed when they are on track during green flag laps. Drivers’ number of passes and number of times passed will not increase when drivers are in the pits or in the garage.
I am certain that drivers can't accumulate negative pass differential in the garage, but I think under NASCAR's system, they can accumulate negative pass differential whilst in the pits during green flag laps. I've noticed drivers gaining huge negative pass differential scores when they pit under green during previous races, and I think it would potentially explain Allgaier's score from Daytona.

Many factors could have led to this - under my theory, pitting under green and subsequently gaining a number of spots back under caution (completely possible at a huge track like Daytona) is a potential factor, amongst many others.

Looking at the stats, Allgaier started 21st, was 29th in the middle of the race, had an average position of 20th, yet according to you was 8th on the final restart. How did Allgaier make it all the way to 8th? Did he get there under caution? If you look here, Allgaier makes a huge jump between laps 130-150 when there were two cautions:



Furthermore, he was passed by a number of cars on the final wreck, which led to a large part of his score.

In the end, I don't know if he raced his way to 8th or did it under caution, but I suspect it was the latter. If I am right, then the problem is an incorrect explanation of the scoring, rather than an incorrect application. Assuming this is the case, they will definitely have to make it right with the customers. How they are going to do that, I am not sure.
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07-30-2015 , 11:01 AM
Sorry about the 'wall of text' I am not good at the forums. Thanks for the feedback and the other stats you added.

The pit road negs while under green, I don't think is possible because Justin Allgaier was never a lap down also never received a lucky dawg pass. Doubting he passed leaders under green at Daytona and would have noticed if he had I think. I watched this race and believe he was lead lap all of it.

This is one of the few outlets where people are actually participating and posting about NASCAR I have found, so would possibly be more familiar with all of this so I put it here. I can't find anything saying Allgeir was a lap down, which he would have been if pitting under green assuming that was the reason for all them negative pass differential points. Ironically of the lineups that jumped ahead, Josh Wise who started 42nd finished 32 yet had a +21 pass diff while Allgeir has a -35.

Given that Allgeir was never a lap down, never received a lucky dawg doesn't that rule out the green flag pit stop getting passed theory. Also looking at your graph it looks like he raced his way to 8th based on the fact its gradual from lap 120-150.

I think what you're saying is, it's possible those gains happened on a caution sometime within them laps, leading to all those gains and not racing for them. If so even, -35 seems like a big number and I don't see how when he was also top 20 in that time period also and had not dropped significantly either, getting raced by or via caution he landed that significant of a negative pass differential.

Am I just not understanding. Again thanks for the feedback.

Last edited by bizzerk; 07-30-2015 at 11:27 AM.
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07-30-2015 , 12:44 PM
the negative pass differential via green flag pitting is still possible. He doesn't necessarily have to lose a lap while pitting under green, just positions.

so for example if he pits under green and half the field behind him stays out hes getting a -20 something pass differential but could easily still make it out to stay on the lead lap... then lets assume theres a caution and the rest of the field that stayed out previously all pit but he stays out. Now he repasses the field to his original position without regaining the pass differential...

Now the issue with this explanation is that by NASCAR definition pass differential does not count any movement while you are on pit road (including green flag laps). But as CW said before DK's definition of pass differential is incredibly ambiguous (total # of passes- times passed) and may very well include green flag pit passes.

I think this is all honestly just DK poorly defining and explaining the parameters of its scoring. I think the scoring system is working correctly (though probably not an ideal scoring system to begin with when a winner can get -44) it was just explained poorly or not at all to those of us playing NASCAR DFS.

This whole situation, I imagine, is why the events for this weekend are not up yet.

It sucks that the scoring system affected you so heavily. though I have a feeling they are going to come back saying that the scoring system was/is working as intended and that the issue was that they did not properly explain how it worked. Though I would not be surprised to see the scoring system change in the near future and certainly for future seasons.
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07-30-2015 , 01:35 PM
This is definitely why they haven't posted contests yet.

And I don't necessarily agree they are just going to say it was just a little misinterpretation of some rule (which isnt) and so will just move along as was. If that was the case, they would have already posted the contests.
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