Every tout/prognostication is on JJ as the #1 option. Definitely will be fading him a lot if he qualifies well.

No way this will last if there are 25 people chopping every week. They might need to add an extra driver or 2 for separation.

With so many trains and bought lineups, chops are inevitable. IMO a contrarian single bullet can win sometimes.

I think DK will tweak it somehow before too long. They have a 3 year deal with NASCAR, they can't just reduce the GPP's down to nothing.

Seems like a bold move if he also runs well in final practice. The top guys at Dover routinely lead 150+ laps, and over 100 fantasy points is a lot to pass up if Johnson rates well in speed going into the race. I don't think you can project much until after final practice though, so we will see.

JJ fastest in 1st practice. Looks like he will be highest owned. If he's 80% owned I'll be looking to have 20-33% on my rosters.

With the way JJ and JG qualified it will be really tough to fade them. Both almost a must start now.

Nascar is a great addition to DFS.

Just a HU because previous posters were wondering how they had drivers who finished in the top 15, yet people who won had drivers in lesser positions and actually got more points total. You get points for drivers who not only run the fastest/most laps (each time) but also for Place Differential (= +/- 1 PTs) as well as Pass differential ( +/- .25)

Place differential is weighted extremely heavy on Draftkings so it's extra important to factor in and understand when choosing drivers. Place differential is a Driver who advances or loses their position from where they started the race to where they finish the race. And it is heavily weighted in the scoring at +/- 1pt.

So basically the optimal situation would be to have a good driver, from a good team in a fast car, starting from the middle to back of the field. Say 30th for example, and they finish 3rd you would get +27 pts (place differential), +31 (3rd place), + laps led/fastest lap bonuses/Pass differential.

So to a reach a high bar you need to understand and factor this into who you pick and why. A driver who ends up in the back of the field, which could happen for a variety of reasons and not necc bc they are slow, like a blown motor, penalty or engine change can actually be the optimal flyer/plug in NAS.



Last weekend at Charlotte Kasey Kahne and Matt Kenseth are a good example

Kahne started 33rd and finished 12th scoring = 58.5

21 Place Diff, 4 Pass Diff, 9 Fastest Laps, 1 12th

Matt Kenseth Pole started 1st and finished 4th scoring = 52.25

-3 Place Diff, -6 Pass Diff, 27 Laps Led, 20 Fastest Laps, 1 4th



So even though Matt Kenseth started 1st did well, finished 4th he still didn't score as many point as Kahne who came from the back and picked up the heavily weighted place differential points even though he only finished 12th.

So in this new NASCAR it's real important to know its not optimal to be picking drivers who just start up front and have a fast car necessarily.

To increase your bar/expectation you actually need to find the middling to back of pack good driver in a fast car and on a good team who runs to the front, plus gets some bonus points for laps led/fastest laps etc. Even if they don't win and just finish 12th like Kasey Kahne did they will still score more points than Kenseth did, who started 1st finished 4th.

It's all new to everyone but I think thats very, very important for people truly trying to get an edge on the casual NASCAR participant. So factor that in when making your NASCAR lineups.

Hope that helps and was not confusing.

gl

Joe Gibbs Toyotas and Hendricks Chevys are all quick

16/20 fastest are Chevy/Toyota, so it would be wise to factor that into your lineups.

Good low owned/low cost flyers with great upside- David Ragan/Sam Hornish Jr.

No doubt Ragan is fast this weekend but IMO he's too high a risk to DNF.

Hornish is a middle of the pack guy with both equipment & ability, I don't see him leading laps or challenging the top 10.

Well, yes and no. It depends on what structure you are playing/planning to play. If you want to win big fields, and not get into 26 way ties (lol), you need a UNIQUE lineup and one that outperforms. Low owned % guys (outliers) who outperform basically.

What they are is big field plugs with good upside and probable low owned %s. They also start far enough back in the field that if they do finish up top you get the added benefit of the heavily weighted Pass differential (+1 per spot). So that factored into them as well. I also think Kasey Kahne is a great play although he is not obviously a flyer. If all works out 'in a perfect world, you win.

if you were playing HU or small structures like 2/3/5/10/100 obviously taking such a wideline is not so optimal. This was pertaining to big field strat.

Dont mistake the importance of being unique imo, appreciate the response and notice you are getting into NASCAR as well which is awesome. Enjoy the chat always.

Another thing so you obviously have a core group say driver A/B/C etc.. but then you want to vary your base with some of these other guys we can call like x/y/z. You know so many people are going to have similar combinations of the 'Big shiny cars' so that isn't going to win you a big field. Yes you need to have them right ones too, but nailing the right ones everyone else doesn't see is everything. That will run you to the top of the board, ahead of the similar lineups that are not unique.

26 way ties are because too many people either lineup shared, or did not think outside the box. I can assure you there was quite a few combos out there that would have put someone solidly in first.

Look at last weeks freeroll because it had a big field. 3,266 entries and there was no tie.



1st place went to 1 unique lineup scoring 357.25 pts


Kurt Busch

8.9% 400/400 14 10 4 Place Diff, 8 Pass Diff, 118 Laps Led, 61 Fastest Laps, 1 10th = 100pts

Kasey Kahne

22.3% 400/400 33 12 21 Place Diff, 4 Pass Diff, 9 Fastest Laps, 1 12th = 58.5pts

Casey Mears

10.0% 398/400 34 23 11 Place Diff, 10 Pass Diff, 1 Fastest Laps, 1 23rd = 35pts

Ryan Newman

20.1% 400/400 19 6 13 Place Diff, 7 Pass Diff, 1 6th = 52.75pts

Martin Truex Jr

34.6% 400/400 10 5 5 Place Diff, 13 Pass Diff, 131 Laps Led, 62 Fastest Laps, 1 5th = 111pts


He had the right plugs, plus Casey Mears. Casey Mears was huge, as was also having the other highest scoring drivers. So this weekend is Ragan or Hornish or Stenhouse Jr. for example, this weeks Casey Mears is the question.

Again generic lineups will not outright win big feilds, and most likely tie you with all the other generic thinking lineup pluggers imo.

I get being contrarian, especially for a GPP. You want low ownership that performs well. I saw Beepimajeep drop multiple entries in the $300 GPP last week with Danica Patrick. Very contrarian method for throwing money away.

I play a lot of 50/50, double & triple up so I need a higher floor for those games.

Dover is a 1 mile track. CMS is a 1.5 mile track. Both races have 400 laps. However, you can lead more laps one one fuel run at Dover. Which is why it usually has 2 drivers leading 150ish laps.

Hitting those 2 drivers will be the key, plus a package of 3 more that outperforms their projections.

Don't get me wrong I am not implying that the contrarian line is a default line. Obviously its situational and a lot of different factors play into it, as to why/how/when etc..

Truth be told, this is the most strat I have ever put in a public form, ever. Mostly because it is NASCAR and new so I am interested in talking it.

Pertaining to the BIJ guy, most these guys aren't necessarily better than anyone else like many seem to think. They just have a TON more money, and are willing to gamble it. They are good, but not the best. Just like poker they play more volume pay more rake etc...

And remember the high buy-in feilds are small. And most the high buyin people tend to play risk-averse/share info, so I don't pay much attention to any of them, or what they say. Dont want to digress into that conversation in a NASCAR thread, but I'm not a fanboy and just because some people have lots of money, definitely do not think they are the best. The higher up you go, just like in poker, the community gets smaller and more insular. You can use your imagination from there.

If you are good, you can and will beat them. After all it is an empirical game played in the real world. They are not some super heros lol...

NASCAR is new and unique. I would like to see 1 or 2 more Driver spots added to further separate the combinatorial clusters. I think that will happen as interest increases and the fields get bigger.

I agree their is going to be a couple drivers who lead a significant amount of laps at Dover. If I had to guess the obvious, I would go with

Martin Truex Jr.
Brad Keselowski
Denny Hamlin

Not taking pricing into consideration, but them 3 seem like pretty good locks to have a really good run tomorrow. Obviously they wouldn't all work together, but all three should be good.

Seems like the cheap guys you should be looking at are Menard and Almirola. Hamlin has been dominant in both practice and qualifying - for his price it seems you have to lock him in.

Truex qualified well but had all sorts of trouble in final practice today and his average finish at Dover is almost 16th. Seems like he is a good candidate to go backwards.

Keselowski is a good candidate to move forward but for his price he's going to need to lead some laps to make it worth it - not sure he's going to do that.

Just finished my rosters and feel like I have pretty good combos of JGR cars.

I am fading Penske so I hope that doesn't bite me. I have zero Hornish, Ragan, Stenhouse, and Scott.

I'm 90% cash games so YMMV. Good luck.

Pretty similar to me in cash, buffalo. I threw a bunch of entries into the $3 GPP so I've got combos everywhere, but I'm all over Gibbs for cash.

GL

Junior to the rear of the field. If you think pass differential is important, he's your guy.

lol

Truex from South Jersey raced Dover a loong time, before he made it to NASCAR. Was fast all week. Still early tho motor could go wrecks pit stops speeding penalties...

Truex & Hamlin leading all the laps is horrible for everyone. Gonna be a 100 way tie for 1st if they dominate to the end.

Agree they need to add a 6th driver or even 7 on DK that would take care of the ridiculously close lineup issue.

NASCAR is also just like that. The few dominant teams better drivers tend to always be up front. So if you don't factor in the pass/place diff and other scoring to find 'other drivers etc, you prob are gonna find yourself log jammed with other generic l.u's.

Dale Jr was huge until that penalty but that's looking bad now. Allmendinger/Danick/Cassil looks like are included in some unique lineups on top of the bigg fields. Unique is big in NAS seems.The same teams and drivers especially late in the year when the Chase starts, seem to always be top 15.

With DFS that's going to run the clusters in close agreement with only a 5 driver lineup would think. They should should up it to like 6 or 7 driver lineups. 5 is small.

Shrub... welp. See you next week.

lol at this race

1st place in the slingshot was NOT chopped and had.... Danica. Wow. That winner should send Brian Scott a thank you note.