Quote:
Originally Posted by losing all2
SF has the worst 5 yr avg basic (runs) and HR park factors for hitters according to FG (93/87, and these are halved ffs) and ESPN (.84/.69). Then he gets to go play 8 or 9 in SD, the second worst hitters park. Granted this makes his last 2 seasons all the more impressive, but I wont target a guy that needs to wRC+ 123 just to produce .277/20/74. I wouldn't count on 106 runs again either as he scored 91 in 2013 with better numbers.
Your point is well taken but I do think you're iverthinking it. For instance, the only time pence ever drove in 100 runs was with a 103 wRC.
He's not scoring 106 runs from the cleanup spot, that I agree completely with, and he's not going to suddenly bomb 30. I guess the question is if you assume he hits say, 22 homers and steals 15 while batting .270, how many combined runs and rbi is he going to need to to fulfill my top 10 OF assumption. I believe that assuming health he can get to 180 and I make that statement observing the lineup around him. Last year the Giants obp was league average despite losing pagan, playing a majority of the year without belt, getting literally nothing out of their 2b until the last 60ish games of the season
Barring injury they've improved their OBP from last year at 3b, 1b, CF and LF. Being as how there's no real power in front of him there (should be) no shortage of opportunities to drive in runs and with his speed and relatively decent hitters behind him there (should be) no shortage of opportunities for him to be driven in.
Granted, I'm making a number of assumptions here that could backfire on me
1. Pagan staying healthy
2. McGeehee remaining a solid contact hitter despite being out of the majors for what, 3 years before last season?
3. Panik being legit and if he isn't Aoki being hit 2nd before Pence is
4. Belt
But otherwise I'm sticking to my guns here