Quote:
Originally Posted by Gary Wise
I'm shocked and impressed. Thanks for this. I'll try to curtail the lols in the future.
Np, you were right & I was a bit too defensive. Staying up all night just to find out if Carlos Boozer is going to grow a pair & play ball will do that to a person. Lol... I feel like I know a lot about baseball, but it's good to have a place to come & talk and debate because otherwise you don't stay sharp. I can read every article that Fangraphs publishes & listen to every podcast that Prospectus releases, but I can't interact with those guys very well.
Last year, I bet baseball. You want to learn how much you think you know. Try & beat Vegas at it, Lol. So if you can accept that I'm opinionated, a lot of that being derived from learning the hard way & doing exhaustive research to identify my mistakes & spots to take advantage of Vegas' lines, then I think we can both learn a lot from each other.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gary Wise
Re: Jansen v Paps, I think Jansen's the better pitcher at this point, but job security/calibre of opposition might make Paps my guy. When I'm grabbing mid-level closers, those factors weigh heavily... I just want my saves. That said, For closers, I'll be bottom-of-tier drafting.
re Kipnis, a big part is upside. Drafting him there and getting duplicate 2013 numbers would be fine, but he's shown a capacity for more. I guess the hope is he duplicates the season without the Aug-Sep drop off. Also, opposite to recent seasons, 2B is shallow, SS pretty deep, making the big 3 2B men tempting.
Am I the only one who thinks Pedrioa is being a little underdrafted? Everyone knows his power dropped from a thumb injury last year...why isn't the world projecting a rebound there?
Closers is a tricky topic. Some closers have more job security than others, but truthfully, there's only 2 or 3 closers who have a lock on the job. Kimbrell... man actually maybe just one. I'd feel good about Uehara, Perkins, and Chapman too. Uehara in particular, because Farrell has let on that he feels Tawaza is more comfortable with the set up role & has indicated that his other middle relievers are still being considered as potential back end starters. So, Uehara would have to tank badly to lose his gig.
I looked at closers extensively last year & found a few things that were surprising to me. Uehara for example, his LOB% is no mistake & that's another reason I have him labeled as an elite closer... I guess what I decided is that when it comes to fantasy closers that I'm not going to roster a guy like Kevin Gregg or Addison Reed. I don't want a guy that's going to give me 15-20 saves with awful ratios to accompany those saves & then he winds up losing his job, anyways. I figure since there is only one guy that truly has a lock on the closer's job, you draft Kimbrel early. Then you take a mid value guy like Janssen in the mid rounds & look for the closers/set up guys with outstanding peripherals & component stats and hope that the club is seeing the same thing that you are stick with your guy from the job. If I do lose a closer, I want a guy that's been helping my ratios during that stretch.
That's my argument for Janssen over Papelbon. I'll concede that Papelbon is more entrenched in his role, for salary purposes alone, although Manuel isn't calling the shots this year, so if Papelbon struggles his leash is shorter I think. Here's a case in point too. Look at a guy like Steve Cishek, he's not going to overwhelm anybody, which is why he's one of the last closers to go off of the board. And while the Marlins hurt Cishek's save opportunities, he still finished with 34 saves, which was good for 15th in mlb (just 2 behind Glen Perkins who most would call elite & only 4 behind Chapman/Romo/Balfour who everyone would call elite). I use to look at guys who had Cishek types on their roster & think they were stupid. Cishek is pretty sneaky good, though; it's no accident that he's held onto the closer's role since Heath Bell faltered. Over the last 3 years his gb rate is 54%, which is elite, and consequently his 0.36 hr/9 rate is elite also. 16% ld rate is elite. & his .233 wOBA vs rhb is outstanding as well. Sure he benefits from pitching at Marlins park, but he's had more bad luck than any other closer in the past 3 seasons 62 runs allowed, but only 52 of those runs were earned. I should stipulate that this research was done in late August of last season, so some of the numbers are slightly off.
Long & short of that is that I would rather bargain shop for my 2nd closer in the mid to late rounds & find an undervalued guy like Janssen or Cishek that may lose their job, but probably won't because the club sees what I'm seeing over a more highly thought of closer. Also, I have to get an elite closer up front. My personal preference is Kimbrel, even if I hate to take him in the 3rd round, really. I would hate to do that, but he's too important to my overall strategy to pass on. Plus say I pick up Kenley Jansen & the Dodgers use him as a set up guy again (I know that's unlikely, but wtf was Mattingly doing last year having League close over him?).
I hear what you're saying about Kipnis & it makes sense. I guess I haven't looked at him, specifically, as closely as I need to. Then again if I'm paying for upside in the 3rd round, I'm going Wil Myers i.e. someone with MVP type potential. Plus, I think my mindset is pick up Zobrist in the 8th round & no matter how good Kipnis is I'm not getting killed by having Zobrist. Another big consideration here is to draft players with multi-position consideration. I love a guy like Napoli for that reason.
I agree with you on Pedroia. I think if he shows pop in spring training that his ADP will rise, but if he were there in the mid to late 3rd round, I'm pretty sure I'd have to pull the trigger on him. Outside of power last year, he gave you top 25 production. The power comes back this year, which in the previous 5 seasons, he's hit 15 or more HRs 4 out of those 5 seasons, and the only time he didn't he hit 12 HRs in 75 games. Stands to reason that with a healthy left thumb the power will come back.