There are always guys who should be avoided. Hindsight is 20/20 etc. but some guys were clearly shady from the beginning, such as Doug Martin in 2013 and 2014 (to be fair I'm willing to grab him late round 2 this year now that he shows improvement). Doug Martin was not really that awesome in his rookie 2012 campaign; he had one big game against the dysfunctional Raiders, and a couple of other big games, and otherwise was mostly kinda meh for a late first round pick, often struggling hard against even middle of the road defenses. Perhaps I was on to something there when I rightfully avoided him or perhaps I am wrong in avoiding risks and just got the right result that time.

This is only one example and last year illustrates this to a farther extreme - Marshawn, Jamaal, Lacy...notice these are all RBs, and the list of round 1-2 busts is significantly lower outside of the RB position as most of you reading this likely already know. To own up to a mistake, I looked at Le'Veon Bell in 2014 as someone with too small of a sample size and wished I didn't.

So I'm looking at this year, and thinking I see roughly the same pattern. David Johnson is in round one and has not proven himself in a full season. He is ahead of Devonta Freeman but why? Freeman played great in four games too, and understandably slowed down more after such a heavy workload. Perhaps Freeman isn't that great, but how can we be so sure David Johnson is?

Elliott looks to me like the guy to avoid. Cowboy's blocking is great. But with Romo and Bryant appearing quite injury prone, Elliott could be on his own or worse...he may just be the next rookie bust or simply get handcuffed by Morris/McFadden, who DO have their merit in getting some carries once in a while. And the busting part happens with rookies more often than not unfortunately.

However, I do like Lamar Miller more than any of the above. Texans still appear to believe in bell cow RBs, Miller may not have been the best last year but IMO he was not properly utilized by Miami at all and had a bad situation from the beginning. He had no blocking and was often swarmed by 2 defenders or more before he even got the ball. He also possesses solid talent in the passing game which makes him less likely to be spelled in such situations.

So this next point may be unpopular, but here goes. Let's say I have a late first round pick and Elliott is the guy I'm expected to take if I want an RB. If I see Elliott as risky, and Miller not, wouldn't it make sense to reach for Miller a little even if it's unconventional? Knowing to avoid Martin in 2013 won me a championship. However, being wrong about Le'Veon Bell in 2014 cost me one.

I also feel Gronk should be avoided big time as he's got a very injury prone history and TE is not a reliable position in general to go all in on. Not only that but Bennett's presence almost says the Patriots agree with me. And Brady's offseason controversy that's been brewing last time I checked, might also be something to watch out for...

However, I think Lacy looks like a solid rebound candidate. Packers are TD machines and Lacy doesn't look to have the toughest competition to beat. His offseason news appears good to me.

Anyways before this gets too long, I'd like to leave the rest up to you guys. Who do you like, why, and more importantly, who do you think are the bad picks that inevitably come in sports? Do you disagree with my assessment of the above?

Oh, sorry to be kinda long winded about it but another point I had and forgot to mention was my idea of avoiding the RB position entirely in the first 2 rounds. Knowing the league I play in, I'd say it's safe to assume Rodgers and Newton won't last to their ADP of round 3, as I have a good handful of early QB drafters in my league. But quite possibly, I will personally avoid this RB conundrum entirely and just go WR/WR right off the bat. This used to be unthinkable but nowadays looks safer than anything else? The problem is if I do that, I'd like to ensure further points are scored with Rodgers in round 3, but I don't think that'll work out in my league. Maybe at this point someone like Rawls would be the followup with that route. And of course, another problem is that bell cow RBs are pretty much entirely gone after the first two rounds.

Having some people over today for a BBQ, and still have not decided what we are making. On one hand I could make steaks, with maybe some potatoes which would be easy. But its also more expensive. Burgers would be cheaper, but I'm not sure all of our guests will appreciate burgers. I was going to start a new thread for this, but posting here seems reasonable. Im Leaning Burgers with Cucumber/Tomatoe salad.

This seems like a nice thread...

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15...hread-1610279/

Yeah, what ndfan said, but who still drafts instead of auctioning anyway

Does anyone on 2p2 do anything but troll? I heard good things but gotta say I'm disappointed.

You really think this requires its own separate thread? Nothing you've said hasn't already been discussed year after year in the "Fantasy Football" threads.

Also, comparing RB's on how many "big games" they have had is not the best way to start out your analysis IMO.

Like I said, post your thoughts and questions in the proper thread, like everyone else, and I'm sure you'll get appropriate feedback.

Truth be told, I read that thread before I made this thread. It's hardly something that answers all my own questions. Do you think if I posted this in that thread it would've gotten anything besides "Cool story bro" or something like that? I don't think 2p2 knows what "appropriate feedback" really is to be honest. Additionally, even if you're right and that would've been an appropriate thread...

1) Why have a forum at all if everything is going to be discussed in one thread?
2) Do you think what you said in your first reply actually could've been taken seriously enough to direct me to that thread?
3) But fine, I'll oblige regardless and post in the thread. If anyone actually answers with something relevant it'll surprise me.

yawn

but seriously, what did you end up BBQing ND?

Because if everyone started a new thread every time they had a question or thought it would be chaos.

Also it helps because what you ask will for sure be asked by other people

Also it's still July, so no one is really thinking about or discussing in much detail things at this point. The FF thread gets really busy when there's, you know, football being played

Lol, we made burgers because Merica!

Yeah, I get that, but it maybe would be helped if fantasy sport forums were categorized by the sport instead of being lumped into one forum for baseball, football etc. I acknowledge your point and agree with you in the end though given that it's how things are here. But whatever, these 2p2 forums are crap anyways; nothing but trolls and pointless responses that might occasionally be funny, but ultimately don't get any legitimate discussing of actually relevant topics going on most of the time unless you make more effort than it should take to pull the words out of people around here. Or better yet, just do my own research and not bother with other people who troll instead of doing anything productive with their lives.

And the funny thing is, this probably sounds like comedy gold in some way to people who are trolls. Their first reaction might very well be "OMG he fed me! That's so funny!" Because they'd rather waste their time doing absolutely jack IMO. And I was a major troll back in the day when the internet first became something mainstream, because I was a teenager once too. But there also came time for me to grow up when I realized the importance of what my time goes to.

Short version: Goodbye.

Chaos is the way to a great team!

im sure youll be missed

1) Don't take the internet so seriously
2) Yes, you would get better answers in the FF discussion thread.

I think the WR/WR strategy is pretty popular so maybe there is value in late round RBs. Try the other thread if you want to really discuss. You'll get some good advice and some bad advice and you may end up with CMike and LGreen with your first two picks. You never know.

Martin is a solid, fire-hydrant back with decent speed, great balance and a nose for the marker. He's a lot like Ray Rice. He's not top 5, but you could do a lot worse with him as your No. 1.

Going into 2015...
Lynch ... old, rapidly regressing O-line play ... Easy to predict.
Charles ... well, I usually let skinny aging backs like him be someone else's gamble. It pays off way more than it leads to regret.
Lacy ... he was noticeably fat during the summer, and it showed when the real games started. Just gotta pay attention to camp reports, but he's not my kind of back anyway (see below).

Johnson IS great, and in a great situation. If you can't see that in him by now, I question your talent evaluation at the position. He has burst, wiggle, power and he catches extremely well. Further, he runs behind a road-grading line, and his offense has great balance. Freeman is a solid back, but not great. He wore way down, and the Falcons' offense has limitations, in my view.

Couldn't disagree more. There's never a better position to draft a rookie than RB, especially for a veteran offense with balance. Obviously, we'll haveta watch the Cowboys' summer, but if they come out and go 50-50 with McFadden (or anyone else) it would be the dumbest thing Garrett could do. Even if Romo and/or Dez go down, look what Gurley was able to do with no QB and no WRs. Elliott is in a perfect spot to be the Murray that those other bums couldn't. And yes, McFadden is a bum, and has been since he was drafted.

Meh... As a Dolphins fan, I was sad to see Miller get away. He has top-notch speed, seldom fumbles and definitely was under used. I think you overvalue his ability as a receiver, though. Two coaches there thought better of making him a bellcow back. ... In the NFL, that's a pattern for consensus. I would not take him before Elliott. But not much further behind.

I think avoiding Doug Martin that year was a coincidence. He got hurt, which no one can predict. Surely, other factors had far more to do with you winning a championship. But you're still taking a risk with Miller in the first. Less so with Elliott, imo. Regardless, depending on when you pick, your scoring system, and how the first round flows, you could miss out on both of them. So go safe and take the best WR.

Lacy is not a first round back, certainly not in PPR, because he can't/doesn't catch. I like Bears' and Vikes' run defenses this year. I drop stone-handed hammer backs like Lacy and Ivory down a round or two every year, and let them be someone else's gamble. If the opponent brings their run defense that week, that kind of back is out of the game plan and liable to give you a fat 0.

Give me an Ingram, Martin, D.Johnson over Lacy all day. Maybe even Yeldon.

But for the love of God, never draft a TE in the first round. Ever. ... Yes, I know some leagues give 1 pt/5 yds to TEs. Still, no.

It's super early to the point of being irrelevant, but...

Deep Sleepers to Buy:

D. Parker, K. White, Procise, Ajayi, Abdullah, Paul Perkins,

Vets to Avoid:

AP, M.Gordon, McCoy, Ivory, Charles, J.Bell, Crabtree, B. Marshall, Hill, Stewart, Cook.

Lynch also isn't playing football anymore, not sure if that was factored into your analysis

Oh cool. One of those posters. Every subforum has them.

Yeah, read it again... slower. Clearly he's talking about going into 2015, and I'm pretty obviously talking about how his production drop was rather predictable back then.

You were the one butthurt bc dude started a new thread, huh?

I just came to find out what ndfan grilled for the 4th of July

Why the hell would you avoid Crabtree? His ADP is absurdly low and the Raiders clearly view him and Cooper as more of a 1a and 1b. His value is insane.

lol give me a ****ing break. please, link me to a timestamped post where you so easily predict marshawn's 2015 decline, despite the fact that he had been a consistent, unassailable baller for 4 straight years. mmm yes so easy to predict that his ADP was the highest it's ever been last year, and every expert on the planet had him at absolute worst as a top 10... yes so easy...

LOL!!! ... the vast history of NFL running backs slowing way down at his age is all I need to cite. You sound like a petulant 2nd division fantasy baller having a hard time coming to grips with known axioms the rest of the fantasy world accepted 10-15 years ago.

It's the same reason I won't touch AP or Charles, either. Not unless they fall to me a round or two later than their ADP.

Drafting old RBs is just a -EV play, the same reason drafting two kickers is. Or drafting a TE in the first is.

Doubtful anybody regretted drafting this guy, regardless of round

SEASON GP REC YDS AVG LNG TD
2011 NE 16 90 1,327 14.7 52 17

Extreme outlier... And you still could have gotten him in the 2nd round or later in 2011.

and if you knew he'd put up those numbers before the season you'd take him in the first and love it