Quote:
Originally Posted by RushMXC
There are always guys who should be avoided. Hindsight is 20/20 etc. but some guys were clearly shady from the beginning, such as Doug Martin in 2013 and 2014 (to be fair I'm willing to grab him late round 2 this year now that he shows improvement). Doug Martin was not really that awesome in his rookie 2012 campaign; he had one big game against the dysfunctional Raiders, and a couple of other big games, and otherwise was mostly kinda meh for a late first round pick, often struggling hard against even middle of the road defenses. Perhaps I was on to something there when I rightfully avoided him or perhaps I am wrong in avoiding risks and just got the right result that time.
Martin is a solid, fire-hydrant back with decent speed, great balance and a nose for the marker. He's a lot like Ray Rice. He's not top 5, but you could do a lot worse with him as your No. 1.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RushMXC
This is only one example and last year illustrates this to a farther extreme - Marshawn, Jamaal, Lacy...notice these are all RBs, and the list of round 1-2 busts is significantly lower outside of the RB position as most of you reading this likely already know. To own up to a mistake, I looked at Le'Veon Bell in 2014 as someone with too small of a sample size and wished I didn't.
Going into 2015...
Lynch ... old, rapidly regressing O-line play ... Easy to predict.
Charles ... well, I usually let skinny aging backs like him be someone else's gamble. It pays off way more than it leads to regret.
Lacy ... he was noticeably fat during the summer, and it showed when the real games started. Just gotta pay attention to camp reports, but he's not my kind of back anyway (see below).
Quote:
Originally Posted by RushMXC
So I'm looking at this year, and thinking I see roughly the same pattern. David Johnson is in round one and has not proven himself in a full season. He is ahead of Devonta Freeman but why? Freeman played great in four games too, and understandably slowed down more after such a heavy workload. Perhaps Freeman isn't that great, but how can we be so sure David Johnson is?
Johnson IS great, and in a great situation. If you can't see that in him by now, I question your talent evaluation at the position. He has burst, wiggle, power and he catches extremely well. Further, he runs behind a road-grading line, and his offense has great balance. Freeman is a solid back, but not great. He wore way down, and the Falcons' offense has limitations, in my view.
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Originally Posted by RushMXC
Elliott looks to me like the guy to avoid. Cowboy's blocking is great. But with Romo and Bryant appearing quite injury prone, Elliott could be on his own or worse...he may just be the next rookie bust or simply get handcuffed by Morris/McFadden, who DO have their merit in getting some carries once in a while. And the busting part happens with rookies more often than not unfortunately.
Couldn't disagree more. There's never a better position to draft a rookie than RB, especially for a veteran offense with balance. Obviously, we'll haveta watch the Cowboys' summer, but if they come out and go 50-50 with McFadden (or anyone else) it would be the dumbest thing Garrett could do. Even if Romo and/or Dez go down, look what Gurley was able to do with no QB and no WRs. Elliott is in a perfect spot to be the Murray that those other bums couldn't. And yes, McFadden is a bum, and has been since he was drafted.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RushMXC
However, I do like Lamar Miller more than any of the above. Texans still appear to believe in bell cow RBs, Miller may not have been the best last year but IMO he was not properly utilized by Miami at all and had a bad situation from the beginning. He had no blocking and was often swarmed by 2 defenders or more before he even got the ball. He also possesses solid talent in the passing game which makes him less likely to be spelled in such situations.
Meh... As a Dolphins fan, I was sad to see Miller get away. He has top-notch speed, seldom fumbles and definitely was under used. I think you overvalue his ability as a receiver, though. Two coaches there thought better of making him a bellcow back. ... In the NFL, that's a pattern for consensus. I would not take him before Elliott. But not much further behind.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RushMXC
So this next point may be unpopular, but here goes. Let's say I have a late first round pick and Elliott is the guy I'm expected to take if I want an RB. If I see Elliott as risky, and Miller not, wouldn't it make sense to reach for Miller a little even if it's unconventional? Knowing to avoid Martin in 2013 won me a championship. However, being wrong about Le'Veon Bell in 2014 cost me one.
I think avoiding Doug Martin that year was a coincidence. He got hurt, which no one can predict. Surely, other factors had far more to do with you winning a championship. But you're still taking a risk with Miller in the first. Less so with Elliott, imo. Regardless, depending on when you pick, your scoring system, and how the first round flows, you could miss out on both of them. So go safe and take the best WR.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RushMXC
I also feel Gronk should be avoided big time as he's got a very injury prone history and TE is not a reliable position in general to go all in on. Not only that but Bennett's presence almost says the Patriots agree with me. And Brady's offseason controversy that's been brewing last time I checked, might also be something to watch out for...
However, I think Lacy looks like a solid rebound candidate. Packers are TD machines and Lacy doesn't look to have the toughest competition to beat. His offseason news appears good to me.
Lacy is not a first round back, certainly not in PPR, because he can't/doesn't catch. I like Bears' and Vikes' run defenses this year. I drop stone-handed hammer backs like Lacy and Ivory down a round or two every year, and let them be someone else's gamble. If the opponent brings their run defense that week, that kind of back is out of the game plan and liable to give you a fat 0.
Give me an Ingram, Martin, D.Johnson over Lacy all day. Maybe even Yeldon.
But for the love of God, never draft a TE in the first round. Ever. ... Yes, I know some leagues give 1 pt/5 yds to TEs. Still, no.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RushMXC
Anyways before this gets too long, I'd like to leave the rest up to you guys. Who do you like, why, and more importantly, who do you think are the bad picks that inevitably come in sports? Do you disagree with my assessment of the above?
It's super early to the point of being irrelevant, but...
Deep Sleepers to Buy:
D. Parker, K. White, Procise, Ajayi, Abdullah, Paul Perkins,
Vets to Avoid:
AP, M.Gordon, McCoy, Ivory, Charles, J.Bell, Crabtree, B. Marshall, Hill, Stewart, Cook.
Last edited by JiggsCasey; 07-09-2016 at 12:30 AM.