Of course you're 100% right here, minor issue, at most (and they say he didn't even have the %'s until after FD lock, if true making this an even smaller issue)

That said what about my post above? If he can see %'s, can he see lineups? if he can see GPP lineups, can he see cash game lineups? Much bigger issue for obvious reasons. We'll probably never know the real answer but I'd hope the answer is no going forward.

Im trying to wrap my head around this.

I play mlb on DK and FD. The pricing is way different. You have to use 2 Pitches as opposed to only one on FD. The scoring system is different.

Yeah I can't offer any great explanation into whether or not he could really translate this info into these results on FD. So many variables.

Honestly cannot feel bad for DK or FD. DK had a full week to get out ahead of this and their response was 🙈.
It will be interesting where it goes from here but the more silent they are the worse it will get.
Although looking back at past instances, very rarely have they done something right.

Don't think it matters at all as long as they are not allowed to play on their own sites (which they're not). Obviously they should not be posting it on twitter publicly or anything. The scoring and settings for each site are so different that I don't see how having DK information is going to help you on FD at all. Really only concern is to make sure that if they do have the info ahead of time that they don't sell it to people to use and that, as losing all said, that they can't actually view peoples individual lineups ahead of time and then give people that info.

I forget where it was posted but someone was showing that the ownership percentages are actually very similar between DK and FD

edit: the percentages for the lineup that Ethan used that day to win 350k

If they do what Nate Silver is saying, they better make it like Bovada so everyone just doesn't jack Maxdularys lineups

the more I look into dfs it seems like theres about a dozen people making 80% of the money and you can't even go to $2 games to avoid them. might just take out all I've made and be happy with small dollar sweats like when I first deposited

Isn't anyone worried that regulation might come by on a state to state level, ie Maryland dfs lottery, Illinois dfs lottery with more states opting not to have any dfs?

Could it even be regulated on a federal level? I thought this was a state by state issue.

I think those who don't think it's a big deal to have ownership % from DK to use on FD underestimate 1) how valuable it is to be contrarian in these huge fields (in which this guy is doing v well) and 2) the ability for a good player to determine if the % will translate to FD based upon pricing differences and format differences.

I believe very small edges, multiplied through hundreds of lineups per tourney, can substantially increase someone's ROI relative to his peers who do not have such information.

This study was done for the MLB contests rather than NFL but one would assume they're comparable. The % of people who actually win in the long run is minuscule.

There is no chance the ownership % from DK is more valuable than the FD Thurs ownership. So for NFL at least I think it's a moot point.

Also the sites claimed that this specific guy didn't query the data on DK until well after FD lineups had locked.

Perhaps one of the 10k+ sunday wagering sharks can weigh in, but I'm assuming having both ownership values would be quite valuable.

Not sure I trust any site's claims after seeing how online poker sites have handled these issues.

Speaking "locked lineups" I think that needs to be the first change DK makes. Having it not lock like FD is nice but also makes it more open to shady dealings.

I don't play daily FS but even I can tell there is some edge to this. And those saying it's a small edge, near the top that small edge applied over and over daily is huge.

I don't think whether the tweet itself was before or after FD locked is was most people care about, the issue is that that they have access to this data before DK lineups lock (since they can get late game ownership before those game lock on DK they can presumably also do it before the early games lock -- and assuming multiple have the ability to do so) that is the big deal. Whether or not anyone has ever used this data improperly we don't know but clearly the ability to cheat is there, and if the ability is there it will happen eventually if it hasn't already. When the sites and all the big players are all basically in bed with each other, there wouldn't be anything from stopping employees sharing that data with friends/others either.

The biggest issue is there is zero reason for this person to have this info and he got it by simply putting in a ticket request. So the guy that fulfilled the ticket also has the info along with whoever else works on the programming side of things and likely anyone else involved with the product team or who had put in ticket requests like this douchebag.

Given its a startup growing at a massive rate and probably a total **** show internally I'd wager that a lot of people inside DraftKings and FanDuel have access to this kind of valuable info and are probably using it to their advantage at other sites. I mean why wouldn't u if it's allowed internally?

Who's to say they can't see the top players lineups etc?

1) According to their reps, he did not put in the internal request for the data until several hours after FD lineups had locked (I'm going by that statement, not by the time of the tweet).

2) It's pretty obvious that just about any site can screw you over if the internal people decide to do so. For example even a non-DFS site that doesn't deal with money at all could be coded to steal your password when you login. Reputable sites will follow security practices to prevent things like this happening, but at the end of the day you ARE trusting any site you use that they have the proper security in place. The fact that someone internal to a site could be using that internal access to cheat you has always and will always be a possibility for any site you use.

the main thing here is that if you thought SEA DST was going to be anywhere near 31% owned (or even 20% owned) then they are an easy fade. Someone smart enough to know how to use ownership percentages to make money would also be smart enough to know that playing a DST that is that highly owned is a terrible GPP play even if you have contrarian plays elsewhere. The variance in DST scores is just too high and there are multiple strong matchups per week.

This is a big long-term issue for the sites imo. Their long-term survival is predicated on people having a real chance to succeed on a somewhat regular basis while also being a casual player. The fact is that entry limits for both each contest and each lineup should be severely constricted if they want to keep the player pool large. They will also need to flatten payouts at the top a little so the big gpp winners keep a larger % of their winnings on the site. Finally, the rake is so astronomically high that it is hard for even a solid, but unspectacular player to breakeven and you would like to have a lot of breakeven players who just churn out a bunch of games.

Agree completely. If they don't flatten the payouts, these sites are going to need to either start offering reload bonuses (other than current bonus setup) or they need to gamble and hope they can replenish the player pool that's lost. I suspect the next few weeks will see some people dropping out who lost their initial buy-ins.

There's certainly the guy who bets $20 per week hoping to strike it big, but if that person doesn't come close for 5 consecutive weeks, or even if he has a really good week and finishes in the top 5% (booking a $20 profit), they will eventually give up.

This is true of every form of gambling.Especially the mathematically rigged lotteries and casino gimmicks.

Of course, but many people argue that it's not gambling

Yeah. If I were in the DFS biz, this would be the issue that would trouble me disregarding the possible inside-info scandal. And yes, I know the two could be related.

I don't see how these sites can thrive when the vast majority of players lose. I think that clearly wasn't the case during the heyday of online poker.

I think the sites need to prioritize protocols which lead to more players profiting. That may mean ranking players...like having what amounts to losers brackets. Severely limiting entries or lineups could help also. Lower rakes would help. But to allow mega-players to run roughshod over everyone, especially when some are likely to be DFS employees is a prescription for failure...regardless of how this specific scandal shakes out.

And its not like other gambling games where you know the odds are tilted against you. This is supposed to be a more level playing field.

It's people chasing the big pay day (lottery players) and people who think they have as good of a chance as anyone (gamblers). The thing about poker is/was that being able to choose at what level you play was like a protection from the sharks. Sharks aren't going to play $1/$2 NL so if you were good enough, you could make money over time. Some sharks literally play in every contest on DK/FD and for the contests with huge prizes that attract people, it's someone's 1 entry vs. a bunch of pro's with 500.

I'm fascinated to see what happens with DFS in the long run because I can't really think of anything comparable. Poker has the protections for the amateurs/novices and almost every other form of gambling gives everyone an equal chance assuming the player doesn't make bad decisions.

DFS is not going to last long. If stuff is already happening now, the hourglass is already turned over.