Marshall is my flex so if he doesn't play I'll put in alshon

McCoy this week

wtf you didnt play julio thu?

If he played today I would have . Still gonna outscore him by a bunch tho

sick competition

I'm up 56 with marshall vs forte

I got this yo.

I offered a buy out and he laughed . So than I asked him to double the bet and he ignored me lol

Like I said earlier, assuming both sides make even semi coherent picks each week, this bet is 99% "which of the top 15 players will get injured/suspended".
Thats really all its about.

If the answer is "very few/none" then the AllStars crush.
If things continue the way they've gone the first 3 weeks with a ridiculous number of injuries/suspensions then the Field wins.

Still not all that worried about the injuries. Shady came back fine, AJG is fine, and Shady/Forte don't have a bye until like week 7 or 8. So Charles has a few weeks before I really need him. The AP thing still hurts obvious. Of course Wes will tell you that he's clearly superior and he's not on the good side of variance or anything.

The field wins this bet probably 75%+ if they are competent in fantasy football.

Sorry rawrs, but you F'd yourself with this one.

I think 75%+ is pretty high, I think it's close. cs3 nailed it, it's all about injuries. If we did this last year I probably walk to a victory, just looking at ADPs I would assume my lineup would be something like....

QBs - Same 3 I took this year - I play Manning almost every week and have a huge advantage there as he breaks all the records. Peyton/Brees finished 1-2, while Rodgers got hurt but that wouldn't have really hurt me with Manning. Advantage: Allstars by a lot

RBs - AP, Charles, Martin*, Foster* - Charles finished as RB1, and Peterson was RB11 but mostly fell down the rankings due to missing the better part of the last 4 games. Martin/Foster struggled but went on IR before the mid way point of the season and I probably replace them with some combo of Moreno/McCoy/Forte who finished RB2, RB3 and RB4. Advantage: Allstars by a little.

WRs - I probably take Calvin, AJG and some combo of Dez, Marshall, Julio and maybe DT. Julio was beasting until the day he went on IR so that wouldn't hurt me if I took him. He would get Gordon though which helps. WR1/2/3 last year were DT/Brown/Gordon, but Calvin, AJG, Dez, Marshall (which could have been my group) were the next 4 and not by a very wide margin. Advantage: Field by a little.

TEs - I obviously take Graham, but I honestly don't know who I take as #2 since Gronk was going to be sidelined for a while. In retrospect taking Gronk would have been the best move as I could then steal Jules/Gonzo once he went on IR. Either way though, he was never beating me at TE with Jimmy even with Jules. Jimmy still outscored Jules by 100 points after week 1 (since the Field doesn't start JT week 1 ever). Advantage: Allstars

DEF - Seattle. They finished as #1 and even with the bye week, Field would have to pick near perfectly to top them and even then it wouldn't be by a lot. I assume the Field would run with KC a lot though. Advantage: None

K - Gostkowski. Finished as #1 but only by 7 points over Prater, even if we predict the Field is a master as kicker picking, they don't win here by much. Advantage: Field by a little.

Basically, you can argue RB, WR, DEF and K could go either way and neither team would have a huge advantage, but Allstars rolling out PFM/Jimmy every week would be too much probably.



Who has the advantage here we probably never know. We couldn't do this enough to get a decent sample size, but even if the Field is the long term winner, it's probably not by much and you can't argue that I've been on the raw end of variance up until now. A player in the top 15 getting suspended in such a low percentage event yet a huge equity swing. Instead on AJG and JC getting hurt immediately last week it could have been two of his starters. He can obviously swap them out in later weeks so it's wouldn't hurt him long term like it does me. However the odds of any player getting hurt like that is roughly the same for all of our players.


And yeah, I'm bored.

The problem is he has free reign to take the best players in the best matchups every single week. Not to mention he has like 95% of the player pool. Again, assuming competency, field still has the edge.

90-95% of his player pool is useless though.

And you can say "oh he can play matchups", but again, if we did this last year, he would have to pick nearly perfect to win. Like if I rolled out Jimmy/PFM every week last year, I'm not sure the Field could beat the Allstars in those spots if they got to pick their players after the games.

Last year you wouldn't have had chArles or Seattle btw

charles was a top 3 pick last year

also this is total points for the whole season, right?

Total points for the whole year and Charles def wasn't s consensus top 3 last year. He dropped in a lot of leagues cause he was coming off injury

i mean, it doesnt matter and im sure it happened but he didnt slip out of the top 5 in any league i was in

I got him 9th in a big 2p2 league

Every ADP I looked at from last year has AP, Charles, Foster, Martin as the first 4 RBs taken and Seattle as the first D taken. I had Charles in two leagues last year where I had a top-4 pick, so yeah, I would have taken Charles. And even if I wouldn't have, I could have just stolen him once Martin/Foster went down.

lol - in our 2QB last year (you know, where QBs are insanely valuable...) Charles still went 4th overall as the 2nd RB off the board and Seattle was the first D taken.

Edit - just looked up another. JC 3rd overall, Seattle first D taken.
And another, auction this time, JC 3rd highest proce of RB. Seattle highest D
another... JC 3rd overall, Seattle first D
One more... oh hey, JC 8th, seattle still first D

So of those 5, JC was a top 4 pick in 4/5 (including the 2qb), and Seattle was top D picked in 5/5. But yeah I wouldn't have had them...

Y'all are overlooking the big game Joe McKnight had. Amirite?!!?

After 3 weeks

Field - 437.8
Allstars - 389.7

Hard to root for either player.

Don't root for the player then, just root for the side of the bet you think is better

Root for me. I'm awesome.