sounds good.

I don't get MadBum over Scherzer or taking either with 11 when you have 14 coming. Ears are perked.

ill pm alekhine just in case

We clearly should have done this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZaXwY_KR_4

lol

gross lol

I too will post more later tonight on my picks.

1.12 - Trea Turner WAS
2.1 - Anthony Rizzo CHC

I PM'd next up.

2.2 SP- Max Scherzer

I think this year pitching wise is awkward. The top of the top is clear in Kershaw. The next grouping of pitchers are those that have high k/9 + low ERA upside. It includes Bum, Max, Sale, Kluber, Thor, Arrieta, Price, Verlander, and Lester. These are the recent whos who of potentially elite pitchers (the next grouping involves things like Cueto, Archer, Darvish, Carrassco, Hill types that have a lot of potential but a lot of risk). So I start going through this group:

	14 fip	15 fip	16 fip		14 k9	15 k9	16 k9		14 AVG FB Vel	15 AFV	16 AFV		14 IP	15 IP	16 IP
Bum	3.05	2.87	3.24		9.07	9.65	9.97		92	92.2	91		217.1	218.1	226.2
Max	2.85	2.77	3.24		10.29	10.86	11.19		92.8	94.1	94.3		220.1	228.2	228.1
Sale	2.57	2.74	3.46		10.76	11.8	9.25		93.7	94.5	93		174	208.2	226.2
Kluber	2.35	2.94	3.26		10.27	9.93	9.5		93.2	92.6	92.1		235.2	222	215
Thor		3.25	2.9			9.96	10.68			96.5	97.9			150	183.2
Arrieta	2.53	1.77	3.1		9.59	9.28	8.67		93.4	94.4	93.6		156.2	229	197.1
Price	2.78	2.78	3.6		9.82	9.19	8.9		93.3	94	92.9		248.1	220.1	230
Verlander	3.74	3.49	3.48		6.95	7.63	10.04		93.1	93	93.7		206	133.1	227.2
Lester	2.8	2.91	3.41		9.01	9.09	8.75		91.5	92	92		219.2	205	202.2

Negative Standouts

Three of them have FIPs increasing over the last 3 years: Sale, Kluber, and Lester.

Three have k9 decreasing each of the last 3 years: Kluber, Arrieta, Price.

Klubers velocity has also decreased each of the past 3 years.


Positive Standouts

Verlander is the only one with a FIP decreasing each year.

Three of them have k9 increasing each year: Bum, Max, Verlander.



I kept Thor from these for no 14, but his numbers looked positive from 15 to 16.



Various red flags for all of them


Bum: Innings.

Max: Innings.

Sale: Increase in FIP last 3 years, Decrease in k9 last 3 years, switch from AL Central to AL East, Switch to Fenway.

Kluber: Increase in FIP last 3 years, Decrease in k9 last 3 years, decrease in velocity last 3 years.

Thor: Bone Spurs in his elbow last year, did not have surgery.

Arrieta: Decrease in k9 last 3 years.

Price: Largest increase in FIP from 15-16 of all eligible people (note also for Sale since it's the same move), Decrease in k9 last 3 years.

Verlander: His first half last year was so bad. FIP was 3.85 despite a BABIP of .279, hard hit % was 28.4%. He had a great 2nd half, but the BABIP was .229. In fact, the hard hit % was increased to 29.7% in the 2nd half. The first half was much more in line with 2015 (3.49 FIP, 267 BABIP) which was another bad year. Looks like the good 2nd half was a product of running insane on BABIP to me.

Lester: Increase in FIP last 3 years.



If you look at the chart and the various flags, the main issues with Bum and Max are concerns about effects of innings. The thing is, EVERYONE but Thor in this grouping has thrown a ****load of innings. Apart from these attempts to predict their arms falling off, they both have none of the long term trending concerns that others do. Sale, Kluber, Arrieta, Price, Verlander, and Lester all have major concerns numbers wise while Thor has the elbow discomfort that really concerns me. Should the spurs flare up again, surgery is 3 months.


After looking at all of these things in this grouping I have the belief that the only pitchers of the top 10 that I actually like for their position is Kershaw, Bum, and Scherzer. I don't want to touch Kluber with a 10 foot pole, and Sale/Verlander/Price aren't much better. Lester and Arrieta aren't great for me either to anchor my rotation given smaller scale declines and their park.


Then I did the same thing for the next few tiers and I realized that I felt this year was different than almost any I could remember. I don't feel like there's a pitcher after these 3 that I think is good value at their ADP until like round 7 or 8. I think there are a lot of potentially good pitching value in the middle/late rounds though. Finally, I think in the early mid to mid rounds theres a lot of value at hitting.



I know I'm taking Kershaw 1.1 this year. I also know that if Kershaw is gone and I'm in 1.2 -> 1.9 or 1.10 I'm likely just skipping pitching until late and going hitting for my first handful of picks. But I've been pondering taking BOTH of these guys at the wheel, building up hitting where I think theres a lot of value in the earlymid/mid rounds, and then cleaning up the middle/late rounds with pitching. And it seems like the best chance to test that is in this mock. Perhaps it ends poorly and I'll learn not to do that for real. But I think these two to the next grouping is the biggest gap in value of any position this year, and I want to see how it plays out.



SP- Bumgarner
SP - Scherzer

Rizzo - I see no reason barring injury to expect something much different from the last few years. He will have a respectable batting average, around 30 homers and 100 R/RBI. Maybe he steals 5-10 bases, maybe he doesn't. As I mentioned earlier I think 1B is not great so I like locking up an elite player at the position. I don't want to get into too many details on undrafted players - obviously Cabrera was the main alternative with the .300+ AVG and if I could guarantee 600+ PA for both players I'd probably go that direction.

Turner - I think something along the lines of his Steamer projection are more than reasonable - .300 / 15 HR / 40 SB. He won't have a .388 BABIP again and but I think he can bring his walk rate up a little bit from the 4.3% last year and have a solid OBP. Which in that lineup means he's going to score 100+ runs pretty easily. Yeah his RBI will not be great but I think we're talking 60-65, not the 40-45 out of a SB-only .100 ISO guy. And he will be 2B SS and OF eligible either immediately or within a few weeks in most formats.

The worst case, barring Turner being a complete fraud which I admit is nonzero but seems unlikely, seems like .280 with 80-85 R, 8-10 HR and 40 SB which is still probably a top 50 player.

2.3 Miguel Cabrera

This was a very tough decision for me, but Cabrera seems like he'll hit forever and gives me a really strong start with Donaldson in 4 hitting categories that gives me a ton of flexibility in the middle rounds.

Don't wanna hold up draft, so no write up (sniped on Cabrera)

2.4 Noah Syndergaard

No offence Halpert (pun unintended), but I hate the strategy. Putting aside my disinterest in picking pitching that early, taking either guy puts you ahead of eight other owners (assuming the big four starters go out one-apiece) as pitching goes and you're just not gaining enough with the second ace to make up for the offence lost. You're not assured of actually being ahead of the Kershaw guy either. Can't see how it's the right choice.

Yeah agreed, your offense is going to be pretty terrible going ace/ace. And if one of those guys goes belly up like so many of these top guys do year after well then...

It's entirely possible you're correct. It's an idea I've been tossing around in my head for the back end and want to see how it pans out. There's a very real chance that when this is done I look at the end result and just shake my head. But if I'm right that pitching is just massively worse than its ADP for the first third of the draft, I think it could end up being good. And if we're not going to try things out in a mock, when will we?

I am normally against taking pitching early. If I recall correctly, last time we did a mock I didn't pick a pitcher until like round 6 or 7. Which is my normal strategy. But I legit hate the ADP of like everyone after these three for a long, long time. The ultimate solution is probably grab one of these three and then go hitting til round 9ish.

Well, the point is that I think these are 2 of the 3 (with kershaw) that are by far the least likely to go belly up, which is why I hate the idea of spending early picks on the rest of them.

I agree with you but by taking both you're already crippling your offense. I wouldn't want my offense to be anchored on a yelich/springer type player. Think the optimal play is to grab one of the 3 and at least get a top 10 bat.

Yeah, that's what I've been doing so far in the other mocks, though I haven't really had the chance to try this.

Same reason I took Altuve.

2.5 Carlos Correa, SS

Correa had a down year last year and still hit 20 HR and stole 13 bases with a .274 average at the age of 21. At one point he didn’t attempt a steal for a month due to a sprained ankle. And he only hit one home run in September when he was playing with a hurt shoulder.

He will have better hitters behind him this year and more RBI opportunities with Springer/Bregman/Altuve ahead of him. I expect solid contributions in all categories and feel more comfortable with him at SS than anyone not named Machado this year.

Last year:
76/20/96/0.274/13

Fangraphs ATC projections:
82/25/99/.282/18


Team so far
1.8 - Bryce Harper OF
2.5 - Carlos Correa SS

here is an interesting article comparing the 2

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/jos...-overall-pick/

2.6 Charlie Blackmon

I always feel like Blackmon gets underrated a bit because he plays in Coors. But I love a guy that will go 20/20 while hitting .300 and scoring 100 runs.

Working on building a good average base so that if I need to reach for power or steals late I have that built in.

I'm also not a big fan of going pitcher here. Too many questions in this tier and even if you get 100 innings out of a second round pitcher you are done and none of these guys are worth the risk to me when you can have a balanced hitter like Blackmon.

Ya I definitely like the Correa and Blackmon pics.

hrm, you guys just obliterated my board. Give me a few minutes to decide here.

Really wishing I could trade down at this point, but I'm going to go with the incredibly stable Freddie Freeman pick. I'm a believer in that second half being a manifestation of his improved vision, his career proves his BABIP isn't an illusion, the top of the Braves order has to be better this time around, statcast says his exit velocity improved measurably in 2016 and the second half walk rate suggests legitimate improvement. Part of me was tempted to go another direction and try to get a 1B back, but I didn't like the other directions enough to role those dice. With this pick, I'm solid in R/BA and leader in HR/RBI. I'll take that foundation. Worth noting that if 1B and SS had their usual depth, I might be going a different direction here. It's a weird year.

Nolan Arenado
Freddy Freeman