Broxton hype seems overblown to me - where is it coming from?
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How many players have a shot at 40sb and 15hr? Not many, and they are all being drafted in the first two rounds. Granted he will not provide batting average like those guys, but in my opinion the counting stats more than make up for that.
Eduardo Nunez did that last year and I picked him up a few picks earlier, and he has posted a 0.280 BA over his past 2 seasons so there isn't a big red flag about his AVG like their is Broxton, who posted 30%+ K% at all levels of the minors (which was still there in his last 40 game streak of the season). Looking at Broxton on fangraphs, here are some second half numbers that raise red flags to me:
- Sample size (45G, 143AB)
- Hard Hit % (50.6%, up from 22.6% first half)
Hitters who posted a hard hit% > 50.0% last year: [None. Mike Trout was at 41%. Ortiz 46%].
Without looking any deeper than that I think it's pretty clear if he still has a K% of over 30 and his hard hit % is nearly 10 percentage points higher than Mike Trout and 5% higher than David Ortiz, his 2nd half 0.300 AVG isn't sustainable.
I like Broxton a lot more in OBP leagues obviously, where his BB% rate can make up for his poor AVG, but you are banking a lot on a small sample size that pitchers probably just didn't have time to adjust to whatever adjustment he made.
In an auction calculator I still show him as being valuable at around picks 140-180 even with a 0.240-0.250 average, so I don't think it's a bad pick here - but the hype of a 0.300 AVG being repeated is way overblown, I think a 0.200 AVG is far more likely
Last edited by beansroast01; 03-12-2017 at 12:49 PM.