I'm going to take Kyle Hendricks. Statcast's hit probability tool confirms hitters get incredibly weak contact against the guy, legitimizing his 2016 ERA/WHIP to a large degree. I'm not saying I expect a 2.13/0.98 repeat, but 200 innings of 2.50/1.05 seems awfully reasonable with a historically good defence behind him and the fourth-best hit probability numbers in MLB. I won't take a whole lot of SPs for the next while, but I think he's a fine foundation piece.

if you haven't read about hit probability, you really need to: http://m.mlb.com/news/article/217705...lity-for-2017/

1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Roughned Odor
3B: Molan Arenado
SS: Francisco Lindor
OF: Gregory Polanco

SP: Kyle Hendricks.

6.8 Matt carpenter

Feel likes he's severely underrated especially in OBP leagues. 1,2and 3 eligibility is huge as well as you can shift him around. Not a ton of upside but he's a solid contributor.

1B Goldy
2B Carp
SS Seager
OF yelich
OF Springer

SP Carrasco

6.9 Dee Gordon, 2B MIA

I feel like the power I have with my first 4 bats has allowed me some room to get where id like to be through 6 rounds in SB. I def take a hit in HR and RBI here, but I also like where my projected AVG is at now, which allows me to go after some lower batting AVG guys in the coming rounds.

1B Joey Votto
2B Dee Gordon
SS Trevor Story
OF Mookie Betts
OF Yoenis Cespedes

SP Justin Verlander

6.10 Chris Davis 1B/OF - BAL

I need power in a big way after my first two picks and what better way to address it then with Davis. I know exactly what I'm going to get with 35+ HR, 180+ R/RBI and have the players to deal with his low avg.

1B Edwin Encarnacion
2B Jose Altuve
3B Kyle Seager
OF Starling Marte
UTIL Chris Davis

SP Jake Arrieta

time to melt some faces

6.11 Alex Bregman (3B)

realistically bregman's going in the 8th round, and with me picking 8.11 that means accepting that it's incredibly unlikely he falls to me. i could wait til 7.2 but what's the point. i want bregman so a bregman i shall have

for those who aren't familiar bregman is a supernova prospect who went from A to MLB in under a season and a half. he crushed at every level, has great power and a good eye. he started his MLB stint a comical 1/34 then hit .320 over his final 170 ABs with 8 homers. i'll grant of course that 170 is hardly an impressive amount of ABs but his performance in them was consistent with the hype around him as well as his performance in the minors. not to mention it's a larger sample than seager's 98 and that was enough to make him a consensus ADP roughly the 7th or 8th last year

BUT SEAGER IS AN SS AND BREGMAN ISN'T!

for now. bregman is the backup SS, getting reps at it and correa will inevitibly get hurt or have days off. bregman should get ss eligibility this year

anyway, i like bregman more than i liked seager last year and i liked seager. he's hitting in the 2 spot behind springer and ahead of altuve/correa which means his upside is gigantic. value pick imo

1.2 Clayton Kershaw (SP)
2.11 Jonathan Villar (SS)
3.2 Robinson Cano (2B)
4.11 Wil Myers (1B)
5.2 Andrew McCutchen (OF)
6.11 Alex Bregman (3B)

SRM, as a Bregman owner of some Dynasty League you may or may not be familiar with, I approve.

That run should be titled the 4 guys I was hoping were going to get to me in the 7th round.

You Bastards!

Trumbo
Frazier

We allowing trades in this?

I'd say no, since most platforms don't allow them.

lol

👍

7.2 Anthony Rendon (UTIL)

rendon's still on the board huh? sounds good to me

anywho he struggled really badly at the start of the season hitting 2nd (power was completely MIA, weak balls up the ass) and was immediately relegated to the bottom of the order for the large majority of the season while getting progressively better. tapered off a bit at the end but in between was one of the hottest hitters in baseball

what makes him interesting is his spot in the order...either he hits cleanup (assuming bro or murphy hit 2nd) or he hits 5th (assuming werthless hits 2nd). in both spots last year his r+rbi were enormous which has me licking my chops for this season as either way this puts him in an absolutely prime spot for rbi and in an unusually great spot for runs considering dusty in his infinite wisdom has eaton hitting 6th

steamer pegs him at 90 runs and 90 rbi over 162 games. i tend to think that's a good expectation although i'm more bullish than steamer on the rbi front (fully expect 100 out of him). not banking on 10+ steals but wouldn't mind it!

1.2 Clayton Kershaw (SP)
2.11 Jonathan Villar (SS)
3.2 Robinson Cano (2B)
4.11 Wil Myers (1B)
5.2 Andrew McCutchen (OF)
6.11 Alex Bregman (3B)
7.2 Anthony Rendon (UTIL)

I like the guys you're taking SRM, but think you're nullifying their value by where you're taking them. There's a chance Rendon makes it back; better to have the next-best guy and Rendon half the time than Rendon and the guy 15 picks down your list imo.

imo rendon is the best player on the board. perhaps i'm wrong

I know you do, not faulting that logic. If you're certain your second-best is going to be taken before your next pick though, it makes sense from a game theory standpoint to take that guy instead (assuming you give Rendon a solid chance to get back, which you probably should based on assorted ADPs).

I mentioned Albright before...it's his biggest leak. Last year, he had Gregory Polanco ranked 32nd when ADPs had him at 90ish. He was taking him over Ryan Braun (33), which is a huge mistake, since Polanco's value at, say 70, is massive if he's a true 32 and Braun's value is only a tiny bit lesser than Polanco's. It's a more extreme example, but the point is that value shouldn't be judged in a vacuum if you want to draft optimally.

7.3 Gary Sanchez

Let the face melting continue. All aboard the hype train. Adding Gary's potential on offense is great and it's not a reach at this point. I need to add additional power still and getting 25 HR and 150 R/RBI from C sounds great here. Hits 3 in the order. I think he could get close to 500 ABs as he's very young still with fresh legs so I'm not as worried about the whole C losing ABs to another pick I could make here thing as I would normally with another catcher choice like Lucroy here.

C Gary Sanchez
1B Edwin Encarnacion
2B Jose Altuve
3B Kyle Seager
OF Starling Marte
UTIL Chris Davis

SP Jake Arrieta

7.4 Jonathan Lucroy

Im not going into a draft planning on taking a catcher in my first 7 picks, but if I do its prob Lucroy. Im either taking one of the top 4, or I'm not taking one until way later.

C Jonathan Lucroy
1B Joey Votto
2B Dee Gordon
SS Trevor Story
OF Mookie Betts
OF Yoenis Cespedes

SP Justin Verlander

7.5 billy Hamilton

I need steals

So some discussion on my last picks since I'm home now - I'm not super stoked about the position I find myself in at all (turns out drafting 3 pitchers in the first 4 rounds doesn't work out well for your bats). I went for established power and counting stats in Trumbo and Frazier. What that means is that now I am hurting fairly badly in the AVG department, and a bit in SB. I think I can make that up a bit later in the draft though, whereas power maybe not so much. I'm not worried about the streaky nature of Trumbo and Frazier in a ROTO league.

I think Jacob DeGrom is too good a value to pass up.Def my BPA. He sucked at the end of last year due to injury after 4 months of ace pitching, but is healthy now, and his velocity dipped less than 1 mph in September despite the wonkiness. I wouldn't usually take a second SP this early, but he and Hendricks were neck and neck and now I don't need to take a starter til 2018, more or less.

1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Roughned Odor
3B: Molan Arenado
SS: Francisco Lindor
OF: Gregory Polanco

SP: Kyle Hendricks.
SP: Jacob DeGrom

This team is shaping up real nice

tyty

DJ LeMahieu