I'm not convinced Marte's the best player there. Fangraphs (ATC) has 16 undrafted hitters worth more than him:P While I don't treat them as gospel, it's something.

Calling him BPA assumes health, a real stretch considering track record.

2.24 - Sale
3.25 - Kluber

Writeup after I get off work

doesn't help your power necessarily, but the likely 60+ runs/rbi you gain go a long way especially when you can make up the steals in the aggregate

3.2 Robinson Cano, 2B

i need a power hitter in this spot and the best 2 for this ADP are cano and e^5. there are 2 other options i could theoretically go with, but the first puts me behind the 8 ball in rbi and average in tandem with villar and the 2nd is injury prone with an uncertainty in terms of him being traded. i'm very very skeptical of e^5 given that he went from the 3rd best hitters park in a division where 3 of the other 4 are in the top 10 in amenability to power hitters to a division where the best hitters park is 11th and his home stadium is 15th

i don't know to what extent his numbers will diminish but expecting anything resembling what he did in toronto is beyond foolish

really dig what the addition of segura SHOULD do for cano's RBI total. expecting 110 out of him isn't unreasonable. he's had an ISO of .220 since the 2nd half of 2015 and while 39 homers is probably unreasonable, 30 likely isn't. this still probably puts him below encarnacion in the homer department but i just don't see how the latter hits .260 which should make cano the prohibitive favorite in runs and with the diminished average and homers, plus the uncertainty of kipnis's health, probably the favorite in RBI as well as well is the monster favorite in avg

1.2 Clayton Kershaw (SP)
2.11 Jonathan Villar (3B, SS)
3.2 Robinson Cano (2B)

Cano's first half of 2015 should be discounted imo. Nasty stomach bug plus the death of the father = not himself. Projection systems don't remember that though.

He's getting older though

not untrue, but it would surprise me immensely if he had his best ISO at 33 then fell off a cliff at 34. he's probably got a year or two of eliteness left in him. the drop-off doesn't come this early this day and age

yeah im really liking cano this year. ive regularly been going like 1.3 kershaw, 2.10 cano in mocks.

Also, I cannot stress enough how much I feel like avoiding Kluber is a must this year.

3.3 Edwin Encarnacion

I'll do a writeup later but it's pretty obvious why.

Team:

1.3 Jose Altuve 2B-HOU
2.10 Starling Marte OF-PIT
3.3 Edwin Encarnacion 1B-CLE

There are like 3 guys I like here at 3 differ positions. The thing that worries me most about this pick is where he will bat in the lineup this year.

But with that said I like locking up this position right here.



3.4 Trevor Story, SS

Team:

1.4 Mookie Betts (OF)
2.9 Joey Votto (1B)
3.4 Trevor Story (SS)

Like the Story pick. Was def on my short list.

Im concerned tho, what do we think the batting order will be? It seems like a strong chance he bats 6th.

hrm. On the 3rd, they batted him 7th in the lineup when they put out their best guys.

ya, thats concerning

Last year when he was Babe Ruth, he was batting 2nd. But then DJ decided to be Ted Williams.

But if he still goes 35/20 batting 7th sure his runs and RBIs will be weak, but still solid.

Edited to say: Bar full of guys who are in our 30 year old NL only league not agreeing with Story.

I'll add to this that I'm not a Lemahieu believer. Can't see that arrangement lasting forever.

I keep going back and forth on story, ultimately I can't justify taking him cuz of his spot in the order but one thing nobody realized is that as amazing as he was his first month, he was even better in the final month before the season ending injurywith the added benefit of a diminished strikeout rate

On the road I think he's going to be unplayable. His numbers last year were already bad and that was before he was dropped to a place in the order where he'll have absolutely nothing in the way of protection. But it stands to reason he'll more than earn his keep in Coors. And in a roto league if you have another ss to play in his place during the road games I think story's output will justify his ADP

He had a swstr rate of only 4% last year. I don't know how that's possible but that's not a function of luck, especially considering his o-swing% was a career low ditto for his swing % as a whole. I have no idea what happened but it's clear something did

3.5 George Springer

Was between him, yelich, and just dong for an OF position. I think he has the most upside out of all of these guys and can finally see him breaking out and getting to 30 homers while throwing in 15+ steals. The counting stats will be there even if the avg isn't super high but that is fine considering I've already got Goldy and Seager for avg.

1. Goldy - 1B
2. Corey seager - SS
3. Springer - OF

Sniped! Pick coming.

I'll go with Francisco Lindor. Compliments my guys so far nicely with his speed, offers potential for another step up with his HR/FB only 9.9% after over 13% in 2015. Also love his lineup spot with Edwin in behind him now.

3B Nolan Arenado
1B Freddie Freeman
SS Francisco Lindor

makes sense to me

3.6 Nelson Cruz

Father time has to catch up at some point. Guys at this age can fall off a cliff. But hard to argue with three straight 90/42/100/290 seasons.

Had to decide on going with the mini SS run or trying to go with the BAP that fits my team. No one is a perfect pick in the 3rd & 4th. Still too early to hop on the talent you think will break out this year. It is more loaded with guys with question marks, who you are taking shots on.

Kris Bryant
Charlie Blackmon
Nelson Cruz

(That Cruz pick was 3.7)

3.8 JD Martinez

Sorry, at work now. Can write more in a bit.