Someone first picked Trea Turner in NFBC.

http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=all

insane

So I know I've posted about my keeeprs in that 6x6 league and my last guy was Carrasco. Now I've got $2 schwarber for 3 more years.... some guy yolo sent me Franco and schwarbs for cotton manea and contreras LOL.

Carrasco is $2 as well.

Who you got?

Looking to join a fantasy baseball league, is this the place to find one?

Considering the rest of your keepers I still prefer Carrasco. I forget if you already mentioned this or not, but can you trade players for additional auction money or for FAAB $ to us during the season?

12 team, keep 5 players.
At least 1 keeper must be a pitcher.
I will have picks #11 and 14 overall.
Anyone who would not keep Kershaw at #11?
Only other choices are Fulmer and Paxton both very late.
While I know the latter are both good value, I feel like locking up Kershaw is probably more important (I think there is 0 chance he makes ot to me in the draft if I cut him fwiw)

Edit - only keeping 1 pitcher. Other 4 keepers are bats

Yeah, I'd keep Kershaw.

I cannot.

I've got $2 Carrasco, $2 schwarber, $7 Franco, and $15 hanram in going to try and package for snydeguard or another elite bat in the next week before the deadline

Kershaw easy

I want betts.

I can offer $10 Machado for 3 more years for $2 betts for 2 more years.

I know I asked this already but tell me why not.

Can't really go wrong either way, if you prefer Betts go get him.

Also forgot to add I already have Donaldson and arenado 3rd and this would leave me without a SS

edit: nevrmind

first draft of my top 25 starters starting with 1-10:

1. kershaw
2. scherzer
3. madbum

nothing of note here (RIP fernandez)

4. kluber
5. carrasco
6. thor
7. darvish
8. lester
9. strasburg
10. sale

i realize this sounds insane but hear me out

i'm 100% not drafting sale ever and letting anyone else who wants him pay the ADP for him. sure, there's plenty to like about him going from a team of absolute **** defense to a team with better than **** defense but there's plenty to be concerned with here:

his fastball velocity was down (under 93 for the first time in his career) and people hammered him like they've never hammered him before. hard hit % was career high, popups were career low and with those 2 things in tandem with a career worst in GB/FB predictably he ended up with an absurdly bad 20% HR/FB at home in a hitter's park. the only reason his BABIP was so low relative to how bad the defense around him was was because he gave up so many fly balls. that should scare anyone, especially with his history of elbow issues without ever having TJ and coming off a season where he threw a career high (by a lot) in innings. he's now moving to a team that plays in a division of almost exclusively hitters parks with a lot of power top to bottom. if he finishes the season with an era of 4 would that really surprise you? if your answer is yes you weren't paying attention to him last year.

i put thor at 6 darvish at 7 and strasburg at 9 despite the fact that they are in a vacuum the 4-5-6 because their health scares the **** out of me. carrasco is at 6 in spite of the health scares because his perceived injury proneness is entirely a function of bad luck. he doesn't walk anyone and strikes out better than 9/9 and that's sexy as ****. if he can go a full year without taking another line drive to his head or some fluke **** he's going to FINALLY get the credit he deserves as being an absolute elite pitcher

i'm skeptical of lester sans ross. i probably shouldn't be, but i am

I've been considering moving Kershaw up my overall rankings lately, because aside from him and Scherzer, everyone scares the **** out of me.

Bum - arm has to fall off eventually
Sale - SRM summed it up nicely, (though I think he's not accounting enough for the number of wins Sale will add with the move.)
Thor - Bone chips, worse waiting to happen.
Kluber - peripherals don't seem to translate, but you're forced to pay for them.
Casrrasco - can't stay healthy
Darvish - obv
Lester - loses Ross, getting old, defense can't repeat.
Stras - obv.

It doesn't get much better really. Verlander and Cueto both seem v stable to me, but ultimately, it feels like most pitchers in the top 20 have you paying without upside and with hefty potential downside...feels like it makes the super-stable guys a lot more valuable.

i don't think verlander is a particularly consistent option. his massive gap between 1st half and 2nd half can be pretty easily explained and both explanations kinda worry me cuz they'll correct themselves

obviously BABIP dropping significantly (.270 to .220) is going to make a big difference but he also had a 10% increase in 1st pitch strikes from 1st half to 2nd half, and more at bats starting 0-1 in one half to another obviously accounts for both an increase in whiff % (chasing pitches behind in the count), k/9 and decrease in bb/9. it stands to reason if he stays at the 1st pitch strike rate he had in the 2nd half, especially with diminishing stuff, that isn't going to end well. and of course the babip will normalize and that too won't end well

you're paying a 3rd or 4th rounder for this guy and won't get close to 3rd or 4th round value for him (or you shouldn't anyway, without him getting very lucky). i do agree with the premise that outside the big 3 everything is a landmine or an overpay

plus the tigers defense is utter horse****. besides iglesias and kinsler (which, granted, is a very strong fielding middle of the infield) is there a single plus defender on the field?

JDM, upton, maybin might be the worst fielding OF in baseball

I meant more that Verlander feels like a stable option health-wise. it's the ugliest year for pitching I can remember.

now that i don't agree with

it's the ugliest year in terms of early to middle round options being huge question marks in one form or another but i can't think of a year where there's been soooooooo much late round value with early to mid round upside

this is definitely the year to be all in on offense early and still be able to come out of it with an elite staff

Isnt this really just an arguement to once again wait on pitching. Grab high upside guys later like Duffy, Fullmer, Cole, Taillon, Gausman etc?

You know Maybin is in LA now, right? Seems like Mahtook/Collins will win CF, or some other defensive CF

Also, agree on Sale, not grabbing him at ADP, too much to worry about

Surprised there hasnt been more worry over Scherzer, unsure if he'll be ready for opening day, and he's changing his grip for now in ST so it doesn't upset his finger. If it's a stress fracture, it could easily flair back up imo, or the changed grip could really screw with him

Did not know maybin was gone but my point remains

If all the pitchers are a risk then everyone has to pay for risky pitchers. Its no different than if every single top 20 SP was stone cold lock.
I mean, if you want good pitching youre still going to have to pay for it.
Id much rather have my late round SP turn a solid staff into one of the best in my league, than have to count on those 12th-18th round SPs to be my #2-6 and expect all of them to pan out just to have an average fantasy staff.

Yeah, kinda, but it feels like in recent years, there have been a lot of solid options who could grab as first starters through rounds 5-8. This year, there's just no one in there who makes me feel safe about relying upon.